{"id":18521,"date":"2019-07-06T01:26:00","date_gmt":"2019-07-06T01:26:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=18521"},"modified":"2019-07-06T01:26:00","modified_gmt":"2019-07-06T01:26:00","slug":"still-cautious","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/07\/06\/still-cautious\/","title":{"rendered":"Still cautious"},"content":{"rendered":"

Inflationary pressures are easing, with average hourly earnings growth declining to 3.35% in June, for Production and Non-Supervisory Employees, and 3.14% for Total Private sector.<\/p>\n

\"Average<\/p>\n

But this warns that economic growth is slowing. Annual growth in hours worked has slowed to 1.25%, suggesting a similar decline in GDP growth for the second quarter.<\/p>\n

\"Real<\/p>\n

Jobs growth held steady at 1.5% for the 12 months ended June 2019, after a decline from 2.0% in January.<\/p>\n

\"Payroll<\/p>\n

Further decline in jobs growth is likely in the months ahead and a fall below 1.0% would warn that recession is imminent.<\/p>\n

The Case Shiller index warns that growth in housing prices is slowing.<\/p>\n

\"Case<\/p>\n

Growth in construction expenditure (adjusted for inflation) has stalled.<\/p>\n

\"Construction<\/p>\n

Retail sales growth is faltering.<\/p>\n

\"Retail<\/p>\n

Units of light vehicle sales has stalled.<\/p>\n

\"Light<\/p>\n

And capital goods orders (adjusted for inflation) are faltering.<\/p>\n

\"Manufacturers<\/p>\n

One of the few bright spots is corporate bond spreads — the difference between lowest investment grade (Baa) and equivalent Treasury yields — still low at 2.3%, indicating that credit risk is benign.<\/p>\n

\"Corporate<\/p>\n

The S&P 500 broke through 2950 and is testing 3000. The 3000 level is an important watershed, double the 2000 and 2007 highs at 1500 (1552 and 1576 to be exact), and I expect strong resistance.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

A rising Trend Index indicates buying pressure but this seems to be mainly stock repurchases and institutional buying. Retail money, as indicated by investment flows into ETFs, favors fixed income over equities despite the low yields.<\/p>\n

\"ETF<\/p>\n

It’s still a good time to be cautious<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The prevailing wisdom is that markets are always right. I take the opposite position. I assume that markets are always wrong……I watch out for telltale signs that a trend may be exhausted. Then I disengage from the herd and look for a different investment thesis. Or, if I think the trend has been carried to excess, I may probe going against it. Most of the time we are punished if we go against the trend. Only at an inflection point are we rewarded.<\/p>\n

~ George Soros<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Inflationary pressures are easing, with average hourly earnings growth declining to 3.35% in June, for Production and Non-Supervisory Employees, and 3.14% for Total Private sector. But this warns that economic growth is slowing. Annual growth in hours worked has slowed to 1.25%, suggesting a similar decline in GDP growth for the second quarter. Jobs growth … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Still cautious”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46,3761,10,57,34],"tags":[314,4071,824,1723,1969,2109,2870,2943,3010],"class_list":["post-18521","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-deficit-spending-employment","category-gdp-and-activity","category-housing-economy","category-stock-markets","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-average-hourly-earnings","tag-capital-goods","tag-corporate-bond-spreads","tag-hours-worked","tag-jobs-growth","tag-light-vehicle-sales","tag-real-gdp","tag-retail-sales","tag-sp-500"],"yoast_head":"\nStill cautious - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Still cautious - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Inflationary pressures are easing, with average hourly earnings growth declining to 3.35% in June, for Production and Non-Supervisory Employees, and 3.14% for Total Private sector. 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The BLS report shows jobs\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Employment","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-05-05-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-05-05-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-05-05-jobs.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":48042,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/02\/03\/strong-jobs-data-but-dont-be-deceived\/","url_meta":{"origin":18521,"position":1},"title":"Strong jobs data but don’t be deceived","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 3, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 rallied to 4958 on a strong January jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), reinforcing our medium-term target of 5100. Small caps, however, remain cautious, with the iShares Russell 2000 Small Caps ETF (IWM) still close to medium-term support at 188\/190. The 10-year Treasury yield\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Deficit Spending & Employment"","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending & Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-03-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-03-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-03-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":45147,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/11\/04\/us-job-growth-falls-unemployment-close-to-recession-warning\/","url_meta":{"origin":18521,"position":2},"title":"US job growth falls, unemployment close to recession warning","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 4, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Jobs growth dipped to a seasonally adjusted 150,000, according to the BLS Labor Report, suggesting that economic growth is slowing. Unemployment lifted to 6.5 million, but still well below job openings at 9.5 million, indicating a tight labor market. The unemployment rate lifted to 3.9%, 50 basis points above recent\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Deficit Spending & Employment"","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending & Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Jobs Growth","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-11-03-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-11-03-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-11-03-jobs.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":35614,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/07\/09\/strong-wages-growth-warns-of-higher-interest-rates\/","url_meta":{"origin":18521,"position":3},"title":"Strong wages growth warns of higher interest rates","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 9, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The US economy added 372,00 new jobs in June -- despite talk of hiring freezes at large retailers -- similar to the previous two months. Average hourly earnings continues to grow, coming in at 6.35% for the 12 months to June. Strong earnings growth reflects the labor shortage, where job\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Employment Growth","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-08-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-08-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-08-jobs.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-08-jobs.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":40182,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/01\/09\/stocks-rally-on-strong-jobs-report\/","url_meta":{"origin":18521,"position":4},"title":"Stocks rally on strong jobs report","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 9, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 rallied Friday on the back of a strong jobs report. The primary trend is downward and 1-year Rate of Change remains negative but another test of the descending trendline would be a bullish sign. Average hourly earnings 12-month growth declined to around 5.0%, suggesting that inflationary pressures\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-01-09-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-01-09-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-01-09-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":63464,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/01\/11\/us-labor-market-and-cyclical-sectors-warn-of-a-contraction\/","url_meta":{"origin":18521,"position":5},"title":"US Labor Market and Cyclical Sectors Warn of a Contraction","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 11, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points The US economy added 50,000 jobs in December, but employment in cyclical sectors is contracting, indicating a slowing economy. Declining cyclical indicators for housing, manufacturing, and transportation, and a declining Coincident Economic Activity Index, also warn of an economic slowdown. Average hourly earnings are growing at an annual\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Employment Growth","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-01-10-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-01-10-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-01-10-jobs.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18521","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18521"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18521\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18522,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18521\/revisions\/18522"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18521"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18521"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18521"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}