{"id":18478,"date":"2019-06-29T02:03:24","date_gmt":"2019-06-29T02:03:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=18478"},"modified":"2019-06-29T02:03:24","modified_gmt":"2019-06-29T02:03:24","slug":"sp-500-plan-b","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/06\/29\/sp-500-plan-b\/","title":{"rendered":"S&P 500: Plan B"},"content":{"rendered":"

The S&P 500 is testing its all-time high at 2950. Bearish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow warns of secondary selling pressure. Respect of resistance is likely and would signal retracement to test support at 2750.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

The 10-Year Treasury yield has fallen to 2.0%, indicating that the Fed is expected to cut interest rates in the second half of 2019.<\/p>\n

\"10-Year<\/p>\n

Stocks are still running on hope of a deal in the US-China trade dispute. Xi Jinping and Donald Trump will meet this weekend to discuss the way forward. Chinese preconditions for a trade agreement are likely to include the US lifting its ban on the sale of technology to telecommunications giant Huawei and removal of US tariffs on Chinese imports, according to The Wall St Journal<\/a>. The US is unlikely to accede and chances of a deal are slim to nonexistent.<\/p>\n

Trump doesn’t seem concerned: “My Plan B with China is to take in billions and billions of dollars a month and we\u2019ll do less and less business with them……My plan B\u2019s maybe my plan A.” (Bloomberg<\/a>)<\/p>\n

Plan B is the likely outcome, with a moderate impact on US corporate earnings and Fed rate cuts to keep the market on track. Risks rise while the potential upside declines. It’s a good time to be cautious<\/a>.<\/p>\n

We must recognize that as the dominant power in the world we have a special responsibility. In addition to protecting our national interests, we must take the leadership in protecting the common interests of humanity……There is no other country that can take the place of the United States in the foreseeable future. If the United States fails to provide the right kind of leadership our civilization may destroy itself. That is the unpleasant reality that confronts us.<\/p>\n

~ George Soros: The Age of Fallibility<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The S&P 500 is testing its all-time high at 2950. Bearish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow warns of secondary selling pressure. Respect of resistance is likely and would signal retracement to test support at 2750. The 10-Year Treasury yield has fallen to 2.0%, indicating that the Fed is expected to cut interest rates in the … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “S&P 500: Plan B”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[41,3778,57,34],"tags":[70,3010,4062],"class_list":["post-18478","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-china-hk","category-international-trade","category-stock-markets","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-10-year-treasury-yields","tag-sp-500","tag-trade-dispute"],"yoast_head":"\nS&P 500: Plan B - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"S&P 500: Plan B - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The S&P 500 is testing its all-time high at 2950. Bearish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow warns of secondary selling pressure. Respect of resistance is likely and would signal retracement to test support at 2750. 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Declining yields reflect the outflow of funds from stocks and into safer fixed-interest investments. Volatility on the S&P 500 has fallen close to 1% but a correction from here\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17860,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/02\/08\/more-signs-of-risk-avoidance\/","url_meta":{"origin":18478,"position":1},"title":"More signs of risk avoidance","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 8, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Bloomberg: \"U.S. stocks slid as investors grew anxious that the Trump administration won\u2019t reach a trade deal with China before a March deadline for escalating the war. Treasuries surged. The post-Christmas rally that added 16 percent to the S&P 500 came under increasing pressure amid reports the two trading partners\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Crude Oil & Natural Gas"","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil & Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":61503,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/04\/08\/trade-war-threat-to-markets\/","url_meta":{"origin":18478,"position":2},"title":"Trade war threatens markets","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 8, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Summary Rising 10-year Treasury yields warn of a capital outflow from Treasury markets Donald Trump's threat to levy further tariffs on China risks an all-out trade war The Chinese yuan has weakened against the dollar The bear market continues I will be traveling over the next few days, and my\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "US & Canada"","block_context":{"text":"US & Canada","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/us-canada-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-04-08-10y.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-04-08-10y.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-04-08-10y.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":17888,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/02\/16\/retail-sales-fall-while-trade-talks-stall\/","url_meta":{"origin":18478,"position":3},"title":"Retail sales fall while trade talks stall","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 16, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Retail sales Retail sales growth (USA advance retail sales excluding autos and parts) fell sharply in December, indicating that consumer confidence is fading despite strong employment figures. The decline in consumer confidence also shows in lower January 2019 light vehicle sales. Trade talks make little progress Trivium provide a useful\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":60727,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/02\/04\/threat-of-a-us-china-trade-war-boosts-gold\/","url_meta":{"origin":18478,"position":4},"title":"Threat of a US-China trade war boosts gold","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 4, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Donald Trump's reversal on tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports caused a sharp rebound in the S&P 500. However, tariffs on Chinese imports remain in place and have elicited a response from the Middle Kingdom. Stocks The S&P 500 retraced to test resistance at 6000. Respect would confirm a correction.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-02-03-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-02-03-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-02-03-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":61589,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/13\/the-relief-rally-is-likely-to-be-short-lived\/","url_meta":{"origin":18478,"position":5},"title":"The relief rally is likely to be short-lived","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 13, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Summary Announcement of a reduction in US-China tariffs during a 90-day pause sparked a relief rally on Wall Street However, uncertainty over long-term US trade policy continues to cloud the economic outlook A US-China trade war could take years to resolve, and risks a global recession Relief Rally Concluding two\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-13-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-13-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-13-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18478","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18478"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18478\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18479,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18478\/revisions\/18479"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18478"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18478"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18478"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}