{"id":18438,"date":"2019-06-22T01:04:45","date_gmt":"2019-06-22T01:04:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=18438"},"modified":"2019-06-22T01:04:45","modified_gmt":"2019-06-22T01:04:45","slug":"asx-200-dont-ignore-the-headwinds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/06\/22\/asx-200-dont-ignore-the-headwinds\/","title":{"rendered":"ASX 200: Don&#8217;t ignore the headwinds"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The ASX 200 is advancing to test its all-time (2007) high at 6830, having respected its new support level at 6350.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-06-20-xjo.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ASX 200\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Shane Oliver, AMP economist, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ampcapital.com\/au\/en\/insights-hub\/articles\/2019\/june\/australian-growth-will-be-constrained-but-heres-nine-reasons-why-recession-is-unlikely\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">argues<\/a> that an Australian recession is unlikely as the economy has tailwinds as well as headwinds:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>mining exports have surged on the back of strong iron ore prices, narrowing the current account deficit;<\/li>\n<li>a falling Aussie Dollar will act as a shock absorber to stabilize the economy;<\/li>\n<li>the Australian government has strong capacity to stimulate the economy, through tax cuts and infrastructure spending;<\/li>\n<li>house prices may be falling but there is no panic selling; and<\/li>\n<li>the RBA has further capacity to cut rates if necessary.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The tailwinds can be summed up in two words: iron ore. Without high ore prices, our current account deficit and fiscal deficit would be much larger, limiting the ability of government to stimulate the economy.<\/p>\n<p>Australian headwinds, on the other hand, can be summed up by one words: jobs. High ore prices do not create many jobs.<\/p>\n<p>Job growth is falling and unemployment is expected to rise.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"525\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Australia online job ads fall for a 5th consecutive month in May (and 11th in past 13), according to the government&#39;s IVI. Annual drop, at 5.7%, is the steepest since December 2013 <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/ausbiz?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#ausbiz<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/4pbmgFf3zU\">pic.twitter.com\/4pbmgFf3zU<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; David Scutt (@Scutty) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Scutty\/status\/1141152676391948288?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">June 19, 2019<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Low jobs growth is eroding consumer confidence, flagged by falling spending on durables such as motor vehicles.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-06-20-asx300-auto.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ASX 300 Autos &amp; Components\" \/><\/p>\n<p>And housing.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-06-20-aus-housing.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"House Prices\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The critical question is: will the iron ore tailwind last long enough to save the Australian economy from recession?<\/p>\n<p>High iron ore prices are unlikely to last long. From <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mining.com\/web\/china-iron-ore-soars-as-rio-tinto-cuts-shipments-forecast\/\">Reuters<\/a> on Thursday:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Mining giant Rio Tinto on Thursday lowered its guidance on volumes of iron ore it expects to ship from the key Pilbara producing region in Australia for the third time since April, citing operational problems.<\/p>\n<p>The guidance cut came just hours after Brazilian miner Vale, the world\u2019s No. 1 iron ore producer, said late on Wednesday that it will fully resume Brucutu operations within 72 hours, after a favourable ruling from an appeals court&#8230;..Brucutu, which has been operating at only a third of its capacity, was shuttered in February as Vale\u2019s mine operations came under close scrutiny after a tailings dam collapsed in Brazilian town of Brumadinho, killing more than 240 people&#8230;..The full operation of Brucutu \u201cshould help alleviate concerns about tightness in the market,\u201d said ANZ Research analysts in a note. \u201cHowever, issues at Rio Tinto\u2019s operations suggest the market still has some challenges ahead.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Rio Tinto said it now expects shipments from Pilbara at between 320 million tonnes and 330 million tonnes, mostly lower-grade and lower-margin product. Its previous target was between 333 million tonnes and 343 million tonnes.<\/p>\n<p>Vale at the same time reaffirmed its 2019 iron ore and pellets sales guidance of 307 million to 332 million tonnes, saying sales should be around the midpoint of that range, instead of the low end of the range as previously expected.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Chinese steel production is strong.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-06-20-china-output.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"China Output\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Housing construction is rising.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-06-20-china-housing.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"China Housing\" \/><\/p>\n<p>But rising housing inventories warn that construction is running ahead of demand, which is likely to exert downward pressure on prices.<\/p>\n<p>While Chinese automobile production is faltering. From <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/as-china-auto-sales-slow-industry-braces-for-new-regulations-11560332730\">WSJ<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Auto sales in China declined for an 11th straight month in May, with the slump in demand showing no sign of easing and the country\u2019s automotive industry bracing for losses tied to new emissions standards.<\/p>\n<p>Sales for the latest month fell 16% from a year earlier, to 1.91 million vehicles&#8230;.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>I am not sure how long the iron ore shortfall will last but I wouldn&#8217;t bet on high prices by the end of the year. Nor would I bet on the G20 meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping resolving US-China trade differences.<\/p>\n<p>That leaves uncertain tailwinds and far more certain headwinds.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The ASX 200 is advancing to test its all-time (2007) high at 6830, having respected its new support level at 6350. Shane Oliver, AMP economist, argues that an Australian recession is unlikely as the economy has tailwinds as well as headwinds: mining exports have surged on the back of strong iron ore prices, narrowing the &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/06\/22\/asx-200-dont-ignore-the-headwinds\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;ASX 200: Don&#8217;t ignore the headwinds&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,41],"tags":[251,4059,663,1732,4060],"class_list":["post-18438","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-china-hk","tag-asx-200","tag-automobiles-components","tag-china","tag-housing","tag-steel-output"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>ASX 200: Don&#039;t ignore the headwinds - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ASX 200: Don&#039;t ignore the headwinds - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The ASX 200 is advancing to test its all-time (2007) high at 6830, having respected its new support level at 6350. Shane Oliver, AMP economist, argues that an Australian recession is unlikely as the economy has tailwinds as well as headwinds: mining exports have surged on the back of strong iron ore prices, narrowing the &hellip; Continue reading &quot;ASX 200: Don&#8217;t ignore the headwinds&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/06\/22\/asx-200-dont-ignore-the-headwinds\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-06-22T01:04:45+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/static.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-06-20-xjo.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/06\/22\/asx-200-dont-ignore-the-headwinds\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/06\/22\/asx-200-dont-ignore-the-headwinds\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"ASX 200: Don&#8217;t ignore the headwinds\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-06-22T01:04:45+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/06\/22\/asx-200-dont-ignore-the-headwinds\/\"},\"wordCount\":591,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/06\/22\/asx-200-dont-ignore-the-headwinds\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-06-20-xjo.png\",\"keywords\":[\"ASX 200\",\"Automobiles &amp; Components\",\"China\",\"housing\",\"Steel Output\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Australia &amp; NZ\",\"China &amp; HK\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/06\/22\/asx-200-dont-ignore-the-headwinds\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/06\/22\/asx-200-dont-ignore-the-headwinds\/\",\"name\":\"ASX 200: Don't ignore the headwinds - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/06\/22\/asx-200-dont-ignore-the-headwinds\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/06\/22\/asx-200-dont-ignore-the-headwinds\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-06-20-xjo.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-06-22T01:04:45+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/06\/22\/asx-200-dont-ignore-the-headwinds\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/06\/22\/asx-200-dont-ignore-the-headwinds\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/06\/22\/asx-200-dont-ignore-the-headwinds\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-06-20-xjo.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-06-20-xjo.png\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/06\/22\/asx-200-dont-ignore-the-headwinds\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"ASX 200: Don&#8217;t ignore the headwinds\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-4No","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":18577,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/07\/27\/iron-ore-tailwinds-lift-the-asx\/","url_meta":{"origin":18438,"position":0},"title":"Iron ore tailwinds lift the ASX","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 27, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Further increases in iron ore prices are predicted. Enrico de la Cruz at Mining.com reports: Singapore-based steel and iron ore data analytics firm Tivlon Technologies is keeping its price forecast of $150 a tonne by October. \u201cWe expect the launch of infrastructure projects in China to peak in the third\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":18539,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/07\/13\/asx-tailwinds-v-headwinds\/","url_meta":{"origin":18438,"position":1},"title":"ASX tailwinds v. headwinds","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 13, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX continues to enjoy a massive external tailwind, with iron ore spot prices holding at $120\/tonne. Headwinds stem mainly from domestic sources. Low employment and disposable income growth have slowed consumption, especially of durables such as housing and motor vehicles. Construction work done in the private engineering sector (mainly\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":18561,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/07\/20\/asx-200-iron-ore-tailwinds-continue\/","url_meta":{"origin":18438,"position":2},"title":"ASX 200: Iron ore tailwinds continue","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 20, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX continues to enjoy a massive tailwind, with iron ore spot prices holding above $120\/tonne. Prices are expected to moderate, with Brazilian exports recovering. Clyde Russell at Mining.com comments: \"Even if Brazil\u2019s exports do remain slightly below normal, it may be the case that the iron ore forward curve\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":15079,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/04\/01\/3-headwinds-facing-the-asx-200\/","url_meta":{"origin":18438,"position":3},"title":"3 Headwinds facing the ASX 200","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"April 1, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 200 broke through stubborn resistance at 5800 but is struggling to reach 6000. There are three headwinds that make me believe that the index will struggle to break 6000: Shuttering of the motor industry The last vehicles will roll off production lines in October this year. A 2016\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":18476,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/06\/29\/asx-200-plain-sailing-at-present\/","url_meta":{"origin":18438,"position":4},"title":"ASX 200 plain sailing at present","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 29, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Iron ore tailwinds show no signs of abating, with spot prices close to $110\/tonne. It's all plain sailing, with the ASX 200 advancing towards its 2007 high at 6830. Penetration of the rising trendline is unlikely but would warn of a correction to test support at 6000. I continue to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":28131,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/10\/04\/asx-tests-support-as-headwinds-rise\/","url_meta":{"origin":18438,"position":5},"title":"ASX tests support as headwinds rise","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 4, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 200 is testing the band of support between 7000 and 7200. Declining Trend Index, above zero, suggests secondary selling pressure. Respect of 7000 would confirm that the primary up-trend is intact. COVID-19 COVID-19 headwinds continue, with weekly cases close to their 12,000 peak. The vaccination rate is rising\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18438","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18438"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18438\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18445,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18438\/revisions\/18445"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18438"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18438"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18438"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}