{"id":18437,"date":"2019-06-20T07:34:04","date_gmt":"2019-06-20T07:34:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=18437"},"modified":"2019-06-22T01:16:28","modified_gmt":"2019-06-22T01:16:28","slug":"not-a-good-time-to-invest","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/06\/20\/not-a-good-time-to-invest\/","title":{"rendered":"A good time to be cautious"},"content":{"rendered":"

Markets are buoyant with the S&P 500 headed for another test of its all-time high at 2950. Bearish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow warns of secondary selling pressure but the overall technical outlook looks promising.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

So why should it not be a good time to invest in stocks?<\/p>\n

First, the yield curve warns of a recession in the next 6 to 18 months. The 10-year Treasury yield is below the yield on 3-month T-bills, indicating a negative yield curve. This is our most reliable recession signal, with 100% accuracy since the early 1960s.<\/p>\n

\"Yield<\/p>\n

Annual jobs growth has declined since January. Further declines in the next few months would further strengthen the recession warning.<\/p>\n

\"Annual<\/p>\n

Small cap stocks in the Russell 2000 lag well behind the S&P 500, indicating that investors are de-risking.<\/p>\n

\"Russell<\/p>\n

Cyclical sectors like Automobiles & Components also offer an early warning, anticipating slower consumer spending on durables such as housing, clothing and automobiles.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

Lastly, the historic Price-Earnings ratio is above 20 (PE and PEmax are equal at present), indicating stocks are over-priced.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

It’s a good time to be cautious.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Markets are buoyant with the S&P 500 headed for another test of its all-time high at 2950. Bearish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow warns of secondary selling pressure but the overall technical outlook looks promising. So why should it not be a good time to invest in stocks? First, the yield curve warns of a … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “A good time to be cautious”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,31,3761,57,34],"tags":[4059,1969,3001,3010,3725],"class_list":["post-18437","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-gdp-and-activity","category-stock-markets","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-automobiles-components","tag-jobs-growth","tag-russell-2000","tag-sp-500","tag-yield-curve"],"yoast_head":"\nA good time to be cautious - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A good time to be cautious - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Markets are buoyant with the S&P 500 headed for another test of its all-time high at 2950. Bearish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow warns of secondary selling pressure but the overall technical outlook looks promising. So why should it not be a good time to invest in stocks? 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That failed to sway the bond market, with the negative yield curve steepening even further. The current -1.47% for the 10-Year\/3-Month Treasury spread is the lowest in more than forty years -- since the 1981 record of -1.91%.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Monthly Payroll Increase","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-04-08-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-04-08-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-04-08-jobs.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":16918,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/09\/01\/does-the-yield-curve-warn-of-a-recession\/","url_meta":{"origin":18437,"position":1},"title":"Does the yield curve warn of a recession?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 1, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"There has been talk in recent months about the narrowing yield curve and how this warns of a coming recession, normally accompanied by a graph of the 10-year\/2-year Treasury spread which fell to 0.22% at the end of August 2018. I have always used the 10-year minus the 3-month Treasury\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":36038,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/08\/01\/negative-yield-curves-and-market-timing\/","url_meta":{"origin":18437,"position":2},"title":"Negative yield curves and market timing","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 1, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The 10-Year\/3-Month Yield Differential is plunging towards zero. An inverted yield curve is one of the most reliable indicators of a coming recession. The 10-Year\/2-Year is already below zero but is less reliable. We prefer using the 3-Month T-Bill rate as it is a more accurate indication of Fed monetary\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year\/2-Year Yield Differential","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-01-10y3m-yielddiff.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-01-10y3m-yielddiff.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-01-10y3m-yielddiff.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":18037,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/03\/23\/sp-500-treasuries-warn-of-a-bear-market\/","url_meta":{"origin":18437,"position":3},"title":"S&P 500: Treasuries warn of a bear market","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 23, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"10-Year Treasury yields plunged Friday, to close at 2.45%, warning of a decline to test primary support at 2.0%. The yield curve is now likely to turn negative. The 10-Year\/2-Year yield differential has already fallen to 0.13%. Below zero signals a negative yield curve, a reliable predictor of oncoming recession\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":38236,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/10\/20\/important-recession-warning\/","url_meta":{"origin":18437,"position":4},"title":"Important recession warning","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 20, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"We have had a number of major indicators warning of a bear market over the year, with the S&P 500 falling by more than 20%, completing a Dow Theory reversal, and 100-day Momentum holding below zero. On the recession front, GDP recorded two quarters of negative growth -- a useful\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500 Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-20-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-20-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-20-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":59196,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/11\/14\/an-excellent-time-to-take-profits\/","url_meta":{"origin":18437,"position":5},"title":"An excellent time to take profits","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 14, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The Dollar Index broke resistance at 106, driving precious metals slower. The S&P 500 grows hesitant as the 10-year Treasury yield climbs and international stocks weaken. The bellwether KOSPI 100 signals a bear market. Stocks The S&P 500 remains stalled at resistance at 6000. The Russell 2000 small caps ETF\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-11-13-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-11-13-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-11-13-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18437","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18437"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18437\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18449,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18437\/revisions\/18449"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18437"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18437"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18437"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}