{"id":18373,"date":"2019-06-11T02:35:46","date_gmt":"2019-06-11T02:35:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=18373"},"modified":"2019-06-15T04:02:52","modified_gmt":"2019-06-15T04:02:52","slug":"if-earnings-undershoot-stocks-will-fall","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/06\/11\/if-earnings-undershoot-stocks-will-fall\/","title":{"rendered":"If earnings undershoot, stocks will fall"},"content":{"rendered":"

Annual employment growth is falling while average hourly earnings growth remains high. This is typical. Ahead of the last two recessions (gray bars below), average hourly earnings growth (green) held steady while employment growth (blue) declined.<\/p>\n

\"Employment<\/p>\n

If annual employment growth (blue line on the above chart) falls below 1.0% then a Fed rate cut is almost guaranteed. Not something to celebrate though, as the gray bars and further job losses illustrate.<\/p>\n

Declining growth in hours worked points to lower GDP growth in the second quarter.<\/p>\n

\"Real<\/p>\n

From Bob Doll at Nuveen<\/a>:<\/p>\n

\n

“China is taking a tough stance toward the U.S. on trade. Chinese officials appear open to ongoing negotiations, but a recently released statement denies the country\u2019s role in intellectual property theft, blames the U.S. for negotiation breakdowns and calls out the damage done to the American economy as a result of the dispute. All of this suggests that trade issues will persist for some time.”<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

The CCP is upset that they are now being called out for bad behavior when this should have been addressed years ago. Conflict can no longer be avoided and is likely to last for a generation or more.<\/p>\n

“On Monday, US President Trump told reporters that he would impose tariffs on an additional USD 300 billion of Chinese goods if Xi Jinping doesn\u2019t meet with him in Japan.” ~ Trivium China, June 12, 2019<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Trump is doing his best to kill any chance of a trade deal. He is making it impossible for Xi to turn up for a G20 meeting. Kow-towing to Trump would totally undermine Xi’s standing in China.<\/p>\n

Xi wants a trade deal that is a handful of empty promises, so the CCP can continue on their present course. The US wants an enforceable undertaking, so that the CPP is forced to change course. Chances of both achieving what they want are negligible.<\/p>\n

Both sides need to guard against economic war (time to call it what it is) slipping into a full-scale conflict. All it takes is a spark that sets off tit-for-tat escalation where neither side will back down.<\/p>\n

Proxies such as North Korea, Syria and Pakistan are especially dangerous as they are capable of dragging great powers into direct confrontation (think Serbia before WWI, Korea after WWII).<\/p>\n

Wannabe great powers like Russia will also do their best to foment conflict between their larger rivals. Stalin achieved this with the Korean War in the 1950s and Vladimir Putin is more than capable of attempting the same. The world is a dangerous place.<\/p>\n

Upside potential for stocks is declining while downside risks are growing. Investors are flowing out of equities and into Treasuries despite minimal yield (10-year yield is negative after inflation and tax).<\/p>\n

Stocks are being supported by buybacks but that can only continue for as long as cash flows (from earnings) hold up. Buybacks plus dividends for the S&P 500 exceeded reported earnings by more than $100 billion in Q4 2018.
\n<\/em><\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

That is unsustainable. If earnings undershoot, stocks will fall.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Annual employment growth is falling while average hourly earnings growth remains high. This is typical. Ahead of the last two recessions (gray bars below), average hourly earnings growth (green) held steady while employment growth (blue) declined. If annual employment growth (blue line on the above chart) falls below 1.0% then a Fed rate cut is … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “If earnings undershoot, stocks will fall”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,41,46,3761,57,34],"tags":[314,455,663,1229,4056,3249],"class_list":["post-18373","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-china-hk","category-deficit-spending-employment","category-gdp-and-activity","category-stock-markets","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-average-hourly-earnings","tag-bob-doll","tag-china","tag-employment-growth","tag-fed-rate-cuts","tag-stock-buybacks"],"yoast_head":"\nIf earnings undershoot, stocks will fall - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"If earnings undershoot, stocks will fall - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Annual employment growth is falling while average hourly earnings growth remains high. 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The 10-year Treasury yield\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Deficit Spending & Employment"","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending & Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-03-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-03-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-03-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":35614,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/07\/09\/strong-wages-growth-warns-of-higher-interest-rates\/","url_meta":{"origin":18373,"position":2},"title":"Strong wages growth warns of higher interest rates","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 9, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The US economy added 372,00 new jobs in June -- despite talk of hiring freezes at large retailers -- similar to the previous two months. Average hourly earnings continues to grow, coming in at 6.35% for the 12 months to June. Strong earnings growth reflects the labor shortage, where job\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Employment Growth","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-08-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-08-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-08-jobs.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-08-jobs.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":63816,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/03\/08\/labor-market-tanks-but-fed-unlikely-to-intervene\/","url_meta":{"origin":18373,"position":3},"title":"Labor Market Tanks but Fed Unlikely to Intervene","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 8, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points The job market shed 92,000 jobs in February, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. Employment in cyclical sectors has declined by 260,000 jobs since September 2024, close to the 300,000 trigger for a recession. Average hourly earnings grew at 0.4% for the second month, an annualized rate\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Cryptocurrency"","block_context":{"text":"Cryptocurrency","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/forex\/cryptocurrency\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Employment Growth","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-06-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-06-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-06-jobs.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":31799,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/04\/02\/march-payrolls-indicate-more-inflation\/","url_meta":{"origin":18373,"position":4},"title":"March payrolls warn of more inflation","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 2, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Average hourly earnings grew at the rate of 6.75% for the 12 months to March, a sign that inflation is becoming embedded in the economy. Job openings of 11.27 million in February exceeded unemployment by 5 million. The shortfall of workers is expected to maintain upward pressure on wages for\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Deficit Spending & Employment"","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending & Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Average Hourly Earnings","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-04-01-wages.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-04-01-wages.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-04-01-wages.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-04-01-wages.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":19554,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/12\/07\/sp-500-recovers-but-employment-gains-are-small\/","url_meta":{"origin":18373,"position":5},"title":"S&P 500 recovers but employment gains sluggish","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 7, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Short retracement on the S&P 500 that respected support at 3000 strengthens the bull signal. Further gains are expected in the short- to medium-term. Corporate profits before tax continue to decline after adjusting for inflation, exposing the vulnerability of high earnings multiples. Hours worked (non-farm payroll x average weekly hours)\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Deficit Spending & Employment"","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending & Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18373","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18373"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18373\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18414,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18373\/revisions\/18414"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18373"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18373"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18373"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}