{"id":18335,"date":"2019-06-08T00:46:03","date_gmt":"2019-06-08T00:46:03","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=18335"},"modified":"2019-06-08T00:46:03","modified_gmt":"2019-06-08T00:46:03","slug":"asx-200-zero-confidence","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/06\/08\/asx-200-zero-confidence\/","title":{"rendered":"ASX 200: Zero confidence"},"content":{"rendered":"

The ASX 200 has been buoyed by an RBA rate cut, recovering above resistance at 6350. I have zero confidence that this signals the start of a new up-trend.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

Rate cuts normally precede a contraction and I am wary of committing further funds to the equity market at present.<\/p>\n

\"RBA<\/p>\n

My own view is that rate cuts are wasteful. If they have not worked to date, we are pushing on a string. <\/em>Rather than doubling down, we need to try something else (boost infrastructure spending for example).<\/p>\n

Cash and fixed income securities represent 46% of my Australian Growth portfolio for two reasons: (1) the potential impact of a US-China trade war on Australia; and (2) declining house prices and their potential impact on undercapitalised banks leveraged at nearly 20 times common equity (CET1).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The ASX 200 has been buoyed by an RBA rate cut, recovering above resistance at 6350. I have zero confidence that this signals the start of a new up-trend. Rate cuts normally precede a contraction and I am wary of committing further funds to the equity market at present. My own view is that rate … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “ASX 200: Zero confidence”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,57],"tags":[251,4055],"class_list":["post-18335","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-stock-markets","tag-asx-200","tag-rba-cash-rate-target"],"yoast_head":"\nASX 200: Zero confidence - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ASX 200: Zero confidence - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The ASX 200 has been buoyed by an RBA rate cut, recovering above resistance at 6350. I have zero confidence that this signals the start of a new up-trend. Rate cuts normally precede a contraction and I am wary of committing further funds to the equity market at present. 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The ASX 200 retracement respected its new support level at 6350 and commenced a fresh advance. Money Flow completed a trough high above zero, signaling strong buying pressure. Iron\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":61037,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/02\/18\/asx-200-falls-on-rba-rate-cut\/","url_meta":{"origin":18335,"position":1},"title":"ASX 200 falls on RBA rate cut","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 18, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The RBA cut its cash rate target by 25 basis points today but warned mortgage holders not to expect deep rate cuts. The primary basis for the rate cuts was the lower-than-expected CPI data for the December quarter, with the Trimmed Mean of CPI falling to 3.2%. The RBA lowered\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"RBA Cash Rate Target","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-02-18-rba-cashrate.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-02-18-rba-cashrate.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-02-18-rba-cashrate.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":18743,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/08\/24\/asx-rate-cuts-not-helping\/","url_meta":{"origin":18335,"position":2},"title":"ASX: Rate cuts not helping","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 24, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"From David Scutt at SMH: A growing body of evidence suggests interest rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia may be draining confidence in the economy rather than boosting it. Key Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures released on Thursday showed a deterioration in Australian business conditions, impacted by what\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":40480,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/01\/21\/asx-200-and-sp-500-diverging\/","url_meta":{"origin":18335,"position":3},"title":"ASX 200 and S&P 500 diverge","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 21, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"There is growing divergence between the ASX and US markets. The S&P 500 rallied off support at 3500 but then respected resistance at 4200, remaining in a primary down-trend. 12-Month Rate of Change below zero strengthens the bear signal. An inverted Treasury yield curve warns of a recession ahead. A\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Advance Retail Sales excluding Motor Vehicles & Parts","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-01-20-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-01-20-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-01-20-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":31966,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/04\/09\/asx-braces-for-rising-interest-rates\/","url_meta":{"origin":18335,"position":4},"title":"ASX braces for rising interest rates","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 9, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 200 encountered resistance at 7600. Declining Trend Index peaks warn of stubborn resistance and reversal below 7400 would warn of another test of the former primary support level at 7200. Declining Bond ETFs warn of rising long-term interest rates. The futures market is pricing in a 3.25% rise\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"ASX 200","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-04-08-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-04-08-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-04-08-xjo.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-04-08-xjo.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":61087,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/02\/20\/asx-200-falls-as-outlook-brightens\/","url_meta":{"origin":18335,"position":5},"title":"ASX 200 falls as outlook brightens","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 20, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The six-month annualized growth rate in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index rose to a more than two-year high, indicating a \"gradual recovery rather than a sudden surge,\" according to Matthew Hassan at Westpac. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased to 4.1% in January 2025, but the trend remained at 4.0%.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-02-20-aus-leading.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-02-20-aus-leading.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-02-20-aus-leading.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18335","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18335"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18335\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18336,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18335\/revisions\/18336"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18335"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18335"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18335"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}