{"id":18301,"date":"2019-06-01T01:37:47","date_gmt":"2019-06-01T01:37:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=18301"},"modified":"2019-06-01T01:37:47","modified_gmt":"2019-06-01T01:37:47","slug":"trade-war-reality-sinks-in","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/06\/01\/trade-war-reality-sinks-in\/","title":{"rendered":"Trade war reality sinks in"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Realization that we are slipping into a trade war is starting to sink in.<\/p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 broke medium-term support at 2800, warning of a correction. The target is primary support at 2400. Volatility is flashing an <em>amber<\/em> warning, above 1.0%.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-05-31-spx.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Nymex crude is plunging as anticipated global demand falls.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-05-31-crude.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Crude Oil\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Long-term Treasury yields are falling, with the 10-Year headed for a test of support at 2.0%. The Yield Differential (purple line) is back below zero, warning of a recession.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-05-31-yields.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Yield Differential: 10-Year and 3-Month Treasuries\" \/><\/p>\n<p>As I have mentioned earlier, a negative yield curve is a reliable <strong>early<\/strong> indicator of recession but trouble is imminent when it recovers above zero. Normally caused by the Fed cutting interest rates in response to falling employment growth. The critical indicator to watch is non-farm payroll growth. When that falls below 1.0% (right-hand scale), watch out!<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-05-31-payroll.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Employment Growth and Fed Funds Rate\" \/><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"qtn\"><p>War is an evil thing; but to submit to the dictation of other states is worse&#8230;. Freedom, if we hold fast to it, will ultimately restore our losses, but submission will mean permanent loss of all that we value&#8230;. To you who call yourselves men of peace, I say: You are not safe unless you have men of action on your side.<\/p>\n<p>~ Thucydides (circa 400 BC)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Realization that we are slipping into a trade war is starting to sink in. The S&amp;P 500 broke medium-term support at 2800, warning of a correction. The target is primary support at 2400. Volatility is flashing an amber warning, above 1.0%. Nymex crude is plunging as anticipated global demand falls. Long-term Treasury yields are falling, &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/06\/01\/trade-war-reality-sinks-in\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Trade war reality sinks in&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,41,44,57,34],"tags":[69,1229,4054,2527,3010,3725],"class_list":["post-18301","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-china-hk","category-crude-oil-natural-gas","category-stock-markets","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-10-year-treasury-yield","tag-employment-growth","tag-ffr","tag-nymex-light-crude","tag-sp-500","tag-yield-curve"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Trade war reality sinks in - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Trade war reality sinks in - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Realization that we are slipping into a trade war is starting to sink in. The S&amp;P 500 broke medium-term support at 2800, warning of a correction. The target is primary support at 2400. Volatility is flashing an amber warning, above 1.0%. Nymex crude is plunging as anticipated global demand falls. Long-term Treasury yields are falling, &hellip; Continue reading &quot;Trade war reality sinks in&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/06\/01\/trade-war-reality-sinks-in\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-06-01T01:37:47+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/static.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-05-31-spx.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/06\\\/01\\\/trade-war-reality-sinks-in\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/06\\\/01\\\/trade-war-reality-sinks-in\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"Trade war reality sinks in\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-06-01T01:37:47+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/06\\\/01\\\/trade-war-reality-sinks-in\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":202,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/06\\\/01\\\/trade-war-reality-sinks-in\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2018\\\/2019-05-31-spx.png\",\"keywords\":[\"10-Year Treasury Yield\",\"Employment Growth\",\"FFR\",\"Nymex Light Crude\",\"S&amp;P 500\",\"Yield Curve\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Banks &amp; Interest Rates\",\"China &amp; HK\",\"Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas\",\"Stock Markets\",\"US &amp; Canada\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/06\\\/01\\\/trade-war-reality-sinks-in\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/06\\\/01\\\/trade-war-reality-sinks-in\\\/\",\"name\":\"Trade war reality sinks in - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/06\\\/01\\\/trade-war-reality-sinks-in\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/06\\\/01\\\/trade-war-reality-sinks-in\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2018\\\/2019-05-31-spx.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-06-01T01:37:47+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/06\\\/01\\\/trade-war-reality-sinks-in\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/06\\\/01\\\/trade-war-reality-sinks-in\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/06\\\/01\\\/trade-war-reality-sinks-in\\\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2018\\\/2019-05-31-spx.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2018\\\/2019-05-31-spx.png\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/06\\\/01\\\/trade-war-reality-sinks-in\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Trade war reality sinks in\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\\\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. 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Nymex crude is plunging as anticipated global demand falls. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-4Lb","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":44328,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/09\/27\/crude-and-copper-recession-warning\/","url_meta":{"origin":18301,"position":0},"title":"Crude and Copper recession warning","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 27, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Not every recession is caused by a spike in crude oil prices but, starting with the Arab oil embargo in 1973, almost every recession has been preceded by a spike in crude prices. The only exception is the 2020 pandemic. Nymex Light Crude adjusted by CPI Nymex Light Crude now\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Base Metals&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Base Metals","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/commodities-gold-commodities\/base-metals\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Nymex Light Crude adjusted by CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-09-26-crude-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-09-26-crude-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-09-26-crude-cpi.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":44456,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/10\/04\/bond-market-yields-spike-higher\/","url_meta":{"origin":18301,"position":1},"title":"Bond market yields spike higher","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 4, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The 10-Year Treasury yield climbed to 4.80% overnight, ignoring weakness in crude oil. Expect resistance at 5.0%. The MOVE Index of bond market volatility jumped to 141.67. Values above 150 indicate bond market dysfunction (meltdown), according to creator Harley Bassman, with the Fed likely to intervene. Crude Crude plunged on\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-10-03-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-10-03-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-10-03-tnx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":18333,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/06\/08\/sp-500-short-term-versus-long-run\/","url_meta":{"origin":18301,"position":2},"title":"S&#038;P 500: Short-term versus long run","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 8, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"The market is excited at the prospect of Fed rate cuts (in response to the US-CCP trade war), with the S&P 500 headed for another test of its earlier high at 2950. A Trend Index trough above zero indicates short-term buying pressure. Falling bond yields, however, warn of a flight\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":48611,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/02\/17\/crude-breakout-warns-of-higher-inflation\/","url_meta":{"origin":18301,"position":3},"title":"Crude breakout warns of higher inflation","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 17, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 is retracing to test new support at 5000 but respect is likely. Trend Index troughs above zero signal strong buying pressure. The massive rally is likely to continue for as long as the Fed and Treasury continue injecting liquidity in financial markets. Russell 2000 Small Caps (IWM)\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-16-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-16-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-16-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":56829,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/08\/21\/dollar-plunges-while-us-leading-index-warns-of-low-growth\/","url_meta":{"origin":18301,"position":4},"title":"Dollar plunges, while US Leading Index warns of low growth","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 21, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The weakening Dollar and lower interest rates are likely to boost demand for gold and silver. Stocks remain hesitant as signs of tightening liquidity increase, while the Conference Board Leading Economic Index continues to warn of low economic growth ahead. Stocks The S&P 500 paused at 5600. The Trend Index\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-20-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-20-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-20-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":59196,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/11\/14\/an-excellent-time-to-take-profits\/","url_meta":{"origin":18301,"position":5},"title":"An excellent time to take profits","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 14, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The Dollar Index broke resistance at 106, driving precious metals slower. The S&P 500 grows hesitant as the 10-year Treasury yield climbs and international stocks weaken. The bellwether KOSPI 100 signals a bear market. Stocks The S&P 500 remains stalled at resistance at 6000. The Russell 2000 small caps ETF\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-11-13-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-11-13-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-11-13-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18301","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18301"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18301\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18302,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18301\/revisions\/18302"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18301"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18301"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18301"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}