{"id":18270,"date":"2019-05-25T03:15:53","date_gmt":"2019-05-25T03:15:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=18270"},"modified":"2019-05-25T03:15:53","modified_gmt":"2019-05-25T03:15:53","slug":"asx-200-rises-despite-falling-dollar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/05\/25\/asx-200-rises-despite-falling-dollar\/","title":{"rendered":"ASX 200 rises despite falling Dollar"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Aussie Dollar was trading above 80 US cents 18 months ago but has now broken support at 70 US cents. The immediate target is 68 cents but our long-term target is 60 cents, the lows of 2008.<\/p>\n

\"AUD\/USD\"<\/p>\n

While this may benefit mining and other export-led sectors, the medium-term impact may be increased cost of offshore funding for the major banks. The chart below, sourced from the RBA<\/a>, shows major banks rely on offshore funding of close to $650 billion (between 18% and 19% of total funding of $3.4 trillion).<\/p>\n

\"Major<\/p>\n

The ASX 200, buoyant after a surprise election result, broke resistance at 6400. Expect retracement to test the new support level, shown at 6350\/6400 below on the daily chart. Respect would confirm a fresh advance.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

I remain cautious of Australian stocks because of two factors: (1) potential fallout from a US-China trade war; and (2) declining housing prices and construction activity in Australia. With (common equity Tier 1) leverage ratios close to 5%, banks are under-capitalized and could act as “an accelerant rather than a shock-absorber” with any external shocks.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Aussie Dollar was trading above 80 US cents 18 months ago but has now broken support at 70 US cents. The immediate target is 68 cents but our long-term target is 60 cents, the lows of 2008. While this may benefit mining and other export-led sectors, the medium-term impact may be increased cost of … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “ASX 200 rises despite falling Dollar”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[39,40,57],"tags":[251,292,1397,2254],"class_list":["post-18270","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-aussie-dollar","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-stock-markets","tag-asx-200","tag-australian-dollar","tag-financials","tag-materials"],"yoast_head":"\nASX 200 rises despite falling Dollar - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ASX 200 rises despite falling Dollar - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Aussie Dollar was trading above 80 US cents 18 months ago but has now broken support at 70 US cents. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-4KG","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":24085,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/02\/13\/asx-hesitant\/","url_meta":{"origin":18270,"position":0},"title":"ASX hesitant","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 13, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Iron ore found short-term support at $150\/metric ton but the subsequent bounce is unimpressive, with 13-week Trend Index cutting below its 7-week MA. Expect another test of support at $150. Breach would offer a target of $130\/metric ton. The ASX 300 Metals & Mining index shows a similar pattern, likely\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Aussie dollar"","block_context":{"text":"Aussie dollar","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/forex\/aussie-dollar\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":18218,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/05\/17\/asx-200-recovers-as-aussie-dollar-plunges\/","url_meta":{"origin":18270,"position":1},"title":"ASX 200 recovers as Aussie Dollar plunges","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 17, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"The Aussie Dollar broke long-term support at 70 US cents (as shown on the quarterly chart below), closing below 69 cents. Target for the decline is 60 cents. The ASX 200, reflecting the counter-balance between its two largest sectors, recovered to test resistance at 6350. The Trend Index trough above\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Aussie dollar"","block_context":{"text":"Aussie dollar","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/forex\/aussie-dollar\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":19713,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/02\/01\/asx-resources-and-aussie-dollar-take-a-beating\/","url_meta":{"origin":18270,"position":2},"title":"ASX Resources and Aussie Dollar take a beating","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 1, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 300 Metals & Mining index took a beating as concerns about coronavirus impact on Chinese imports soared. Breach of support at 4450 is likely and would warn of a test of primary support at 4100. Iron ore reaction is more muted but bulk commodities, especially iron ore and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Aussie dollar"","block_context":{"text":"Aussie dollar","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/forex\/aussie-dollar\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":19840,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/02\/28\/asx-catches-a-virus\/","url_meta":{"origin":18270,"position":3},"title":"ASX catches a virus","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 28, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"It's not a pretty sight. The ASX 200 fell close to 10% in a single week. The severity of the fall suggests that sellers are committed and buyers are scarce. Breach of support at 6400 is highly likely and would offer a target of 5400 (a 25% draw-down). A V-shaped\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":9264,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/02\/20\/asx-200-hits-resistance\/","url_meta":{"origin":18270,"position":4},"title":"ASX 200 hits resistance","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"February 20, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"After a healthy start to the day, the ASX ran into poor Flash Manufacturing PMI out of China. The Aussie Dollar fell through 90 cents, suggesting another test of 87 (US cents). The ASX 200 faces strong resistance at 5400 to 5450. Rising 21-day Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Aussie Dollar","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-02-20-aud.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-02-20-aud.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-02-20-aud.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":9018,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/01\/24\/aussie-dive-hurts-asx\/","url_meta":{"origin":18270,"position":5},"title":"Aussie dive hurts ASX","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"January 24, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"The Australian Dollar is declining after breaking primary support at $0.885, offering a long-term target of 80 cents*. Exporters and import replacement industries on the ASX will benefit from the weaker Aussie Dollar in the long-term, but the short-term impact is negative, with overseas investors retreating from the market. *\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Australian Dollar\/USD","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-01-25-aud.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-01-25-aud.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-01-25-aud.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18270","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18270"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18270\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18271,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18270\/revisions\/18271"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18270"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18270"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18270"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}