{"id":18264,"date":"2019-05-24T00:28:15","date_gmt":"2019-05-24T00:28:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=18264"},"modified":"2019-05-24T00:28:15","modified_gmt":"2019-05-24T00:28:15","slug":"xero-deep-in-overvalued-territory-xro","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/05\/24\/xero-deep-in-overvalued-territory-xro\/","title":{"rendered":"Xero deep in overvalued territory (XRO)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>From Morningstar today:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;Cloud-based accounting software firm Xero has booked a strong result but the WAAAX club member remains deep in overvalued territory, says Morningstar.<\/p>\n<p>Xero this week reported a solid first half 2019 result, which included a 36 per cent boost in revenue and a 31 per cent jump in subscriber numbers.<\/p>\n<p>But still, 2019 marks the 11<sup>th<\/sup> consecutive year of losses for Xero, which is a member of the so-called Australian tech stock club, known as the WAAAX, which include WiseTech, Afterpay, Altium, and Appen&#8230;..&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>This supports our view, from <a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/01\/11\/xero-limited-xro\/\">January 2019<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;We consider Xero Limited (XRO) to be over-priced and recommend waiting until market price aligns with fair value.&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Xero is currently priced at $60.14, whereas our estimate of fair value, from January 2019, is $31.75, based on a 10-year <a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/payback-period\/\">payback period<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>From Morningstar today: &#8220;Cloud-based accounting software firm Xero has booked a strong result but the WAAAX club member remains deep in overvalued territory, says Morningstar. Xero this week reported a solid first half 2019 result, which included a 36 per cent boost in revenue and a 31 per cent jump in subscriber numbers. But still, &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/05\/24\/xero-deep-in-overvalued-territory-xro\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Xero deep in overvalued territory (XRO)&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3799],"tags":[3980,3981],"class_list":["post-18264","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-asx-growth","tag-xero-limited","tag-xro"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Xero deep in overvalued territory (XRO) - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Xero deep in overvalued territory (XRO) - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"From Morningstar today: &#8220;Cloud-based accounting software firm Xero has booked a strong result but the WAAAX club member remains deep in overvalued territory, says Morningstar. Xero this week reported a solid first half 2019 result, which included a 36 per cent boost in revenue and a 31 per cent jump in subscriber numbers. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\\\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. 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Xero this week reported a solid first half 2019 result, which included a 36 per cent boost in revenue and a 31 per cent jump in subscriber numbers. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-4KA","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":17711,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/01\/11\/xero-limited-xro\/","url_meta":{"origin":18264,"position":0},"title":"Xero Limited (XRO)","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 11, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Stock: Xero Limited Exchange: ASX Symbol: XRO Date: January 11, 2019 Latest price: $42.62 AUD Market Cap: $5.99 bn Fair Value Estimate: $31.75 Forward P\/E: 156.2 Fair Value Payback: 10 Years Financial Y\/E: 31 March Recommendation: WAIT Sector: Technology Industry: Software Infrastructure Investment Theme: LT Growth Structural Trends: Online services\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":19620,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/01\/15\/asx-leading-sectors\/","url_meta":{"origin":18264,"position":1},"title":"ASX Leading Sectors","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 15, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 200 broke resistance at 6800, signaling a fresh advance. Expect retracement to test the new support level. Respect would strengthen the bull signal, confirming a fresh advance. At the same time, fundamentals are distinctly bearish, with falling retail sales and dwindling GDP growth. So, what sectors are driving\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":10300,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/07\/14\/pickering-australian-housing-severely-overvalued\/","url_meta":{"origin":18264,"position":2},"title":"Pickering: Australian housing \u201cseverely overvalued\u201d","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 14, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Interesting view from Leith van Onselen: Business Spectator\u2019s Callam Pickering has produced an interesting assessment of the RBA\u2019s new research paper, which attempts to determine whether Australian homes are overvalued versus renting. Like my analysis posted earlier, Pickering also concludes that Australian housing is significantly overvalued given the likely prospects\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"ScreenHunter_3304 Jul. 15 10.21","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/ScreenHunter_3304-Jul.-15-10.21-200x200.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":10708,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/08\/24\/houses-overvalued-by-up-to-30-per-cent-says-ex-rba-official\/","url_meta":{"origin":18264,"position":3},"title":"Houses overvalued by up to 30 per cent, says ex-RBA official","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"August 24, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"From Christopher Joye: One of Australia\u2019s top economic experts, Jeremy Lawson, says the \u00adhousing market is 20 per cent to 30 per cent overvalued and has left Australia vulnerable to a big international \u00adeconomic shock. Mr Lawson is the global chief \u00adeconomist of Standard Life, a massive British fund manager\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17884,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/02\/14\/australian-growth-pe-versus-growth\/","url_meta":{"origin":18264,"position":4},"title":"Australian Growth &#8211; PE versus Growth","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 14, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"I have plotted the stocks in our Australian Growth portfolio on a chart that compares the Forward Price-Earnings ratio against the Expected Growth Rate. The blue line on the chart below plots the P\/E, for each prospective growth rate, which matches a 12.5% annual rate of return. [To view a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australian Growth&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australian Growth","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investment-allocation\/asx-growth\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":18278,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/11\/computershare-ltd-cpu-5\/","url_meta":{"origin":18264,"position":5},"title":"Computershare Ltd (CPU)","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 11, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Stock: Computershare Ltd Exchange: ASX Symbol: CPU Date: November 12, 2019 Latest price: $16.44 AUD Market Cap: $8.9 bn Fair Value Estimate: $17.00 Forward P\/E: 16.84 Fair Value Payback: 12 Years Financial Y\/E: 30 June Recommendation: Accumulate Sector: Technology Industry: Information Technology Investment Theme: Dividends & Growth Structural Trends: none\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australian Growth&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australian Growth","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investment-allocation\/asx-growth\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18264","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18264"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18264\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18266,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18264\/revisions\/18266"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18264"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18264"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18264"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}