{"id":18157,"date":"2019-05-04T01:09:40","date_gmt":"2019-05-04T01:09:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=18157"},"modified":"2019-05-04T01:23:45","modified_gmt":"2019-05-04T01:23:45","slug":"employment-lifts-but-sp-500-tentative","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/05\/04\/employment-lifts-but-sp-500-tentative\/","title":{"rendered":"Employment lifts but S&P 500 tentative"},"content":{"rendered":"

Growth in total non-farm payrolls ticked up to 1.76% for the 12 months to April 2019, supporting Fed reluctance to cut interest rates.<\/p>\n

\"Payroll<\/p>\n

The Philadelphia Fed Leading Index has been revised upwards, above a comfortable 1.0%.<\/p>\n

\"Leading<\/p>\n

Real GDP growth came in at a healthy 3.2% for the 12 months ended 31 March 2019 but growth in total hours worked sagged to 1.47%, suggesting that GDP growth is likely to slow.<\/p>\n

\"Real<\/p>\n

Growth in average hourly earnings came in at 3.23% (total private), suggesting that inflationary pressures remain under control. Little chance of a Fed rate hike either.<\/p>\n

\"Average<\/p>\n

The S&P 500 retracement respected support at 2900. Rising Money Flow indicates buying pressure but gains seem tentative.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

US growth looks to continue but commodity prices warn that global growth is slowing.<\/p>\n

Nymex crude penetrated its lower trend channel, warning of a correction. Despite the supply impact of increasing sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, and the threat of supply disruption in Libya.<\/p>\n

\"Nymex<\/p>\n

A similar correction on DJ-UBS Commodities index reinforces that global demand is slowing.<\/p>\n

\"DJ-UBS<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Growth in total non-farm payrolls ticked up to 1.76% for the 12 months to April 2019, supporting Fed reluctance to cut interest rates. The Philadelphia Fed Leading Index has been revised upwards, above a comfortable 1.0%. Real GDP growth came in at a healthy 3.2% for the 12 months ended 31 March 2019 but growth … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Employment lifts but S&P 500 tentative”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[43,44,46,3761,57,34],"tags":[314,4039,1227,4040,2528,2870,3010],"class_list":["post-18157","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-commodities-gold-commodities","category-crude-oil-natural-gas","category-deficit-spending-employment","category-gdp-and-activity","category-stock-markets","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-average-hourly-earnings","tag-dj-ubs-commodities-index","tag-employment","tag-non-farm-payroll","tag-nymex-wti-crude","tag-real-gdp","tag-sp-500"],"yoast_head":"\nEmployment lifts but S&P 500 tentative - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Employment lifts but S&P 500 tentative - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Growth in total non-farm payrolls ticked up to 1.76% for the 12 months to April 2019, supporting Fed reluctance to cut interest rates. 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Growth in the broad money supply (MZM plus time deposits) has also not slowed, remaining close to 5%. Growth in hours worked has slowed to 1.71%, suggesting that real GDP growth\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":48042,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/02\/03\/strong-jobs-data-but-dont-be-deceived\/","url_meta":{"origin":18157,"position":1},"title":"Strong jobs data but don’t be deceived","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 3, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 rallied to 4958 on a strong January jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), reinforcing our medium-term target of 5100. Small caps, however, remain cautious, with the iShares Russell 2000 Small Caps ETF (IWM) still close to medium-term support at 188\/190. The 10-year Treasury yield\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Deficit Spending & Employment"","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending & Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-03-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-03-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-03-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":19554,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/12\/07\/sp-500-recovers-but-employment-gains-are-small\/","url_meta":{"origin":18157,"position":2},"title":"S&P 500 recovers but employment gains sluggish","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 7, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Short retracement on the S&P 500 that respected support at 3000 strengthens the bull signal. Further gains are expected in the short- to medium-term. Corporate profits before tax continue to decline after adjusting for inflation, exposing the vulnerability of high earnings multiples. Hours worked (non-farm payroll x average weekly hours)\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Deficit Spending & Employment"","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending & Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":52227,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/05\/05\/the-elephant-in-the-room-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":18157,"position":3},"title":"The elephant in the room","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 5, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"A weak seasonally-adjusted increase of 175K in non-farm payrolls had a surprisingly bullish effect on stocks. The increased prospect of rate cuts from the Fed excited investors. The opposite of what one would expect from a sign that the economy is slowing. Markets are focused on the immediate impact of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Non-Farm Employment","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-05-04-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-05-04-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-05-04-jobs.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":18139,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/04\/27\/nasdaq-breaks-resistance\/","url_meta":{"origin":18157,"position":4},"title":"Nasdaq breaks resistance","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 27, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Real GDP growth came in at a healthy 3.2% for the 12 months ended 31 March 2019. Growth in total hours worked is lagging below 2.0%, suggesting that further acceleration is unlikely. Growth in total non-farm payrolls continues at close to 2.0%, minimizing the chance of an interest rate cut\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":38010,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/10\/08\/us-job-growth-slows\/","url_meta":{"origin":18157,"position":5},"title":"US job growth slows","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 8, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The US economy added 263K new jobs in September. The rate of growth is clearly slowing but remains positive. Unemployment fell to 5.75 million, from 6.01 million in August, signaling a halt in the influx of new workers to the workforce. Job openings are falling at a faster rate but\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Employment","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-07-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-07-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-07-jobs.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18157","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18157"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18157\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18162,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18157\/revisions\/18162"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18157"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18157"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18157"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}