{"id":18147,"date":"2019-05-03T20:59:11","date_gmt":"2019-05-03T20:59:11","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=18147"},"modified":"2019-05-03T20:59:11","modified_gmt":"2019-05-03T20:59:11","slug":"australian-bank-growth-expected-to-slow","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/05\/03\/australian-bank-growth-expected-to-slow\/","title":{"rendered":"Australian bank growth expected to slow"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Last week I observed:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8230;the RBA will resist cutting rates unless the situation gets really desperate. Ultra-low interest rates encourage risk-taking and speculative behavior, offering short-term gain but courting long-term disaster. Walter Bagehot, editor of The Economist, observed more than 100 years ago: &#8220;John Bull can stand many things, but he cannot stand 2%.&#8221; Sound economic management requires that central bankers make the hard choices, resisting pressure from commercial banks and politicians.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Total assets of the four major banks grew at a much faster rate than nominal GDP from 2004 to 2014. This was only achieved through rapid expansion of debt in the economy.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-05-03-banks-gdp.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Major Banks Total Assets and Nominal GDP\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The sharp rise in debt pushed households into a precarious position, with record levels of debt to disposable income and a serious bubble in house prices.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-05-03-hhdebt.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Australian Household Debt to Disposable Income\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The RBA and APRA have used macro-prudential measures over the last few years to rein in debt growth, with some success. The ratio of major bank total assets, mainly debt, to nominal GDP declined considerably since 2015.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-05-03-banks-ta-gdp.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Major Banks Total Assets over Nominal GDP\" \/><\/p>\n<p>This is a major policy success by the RBA and APRA and they are unlikely to want to reverse course. But they may decide to slow, or even for a time halt, the decline in order to prevent a downward spiral in the housing market. Expect total asset growth of the big four to match nominal GDP growth, at around 5.0%, over the next decade. Comprising 3.0% real GDP growth and 2.0% inflation. A far cry from the heady days of 10% annual growth between 2004 and 2014.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Last week I observed: &#8230;the RBA will resist cutting rates unless the situation gets really desperate. Ultra-low interest rates encourage risk-taking and speculative behavior, offering short-term gain but courting long-term disaster. Walter Bagehot, editor of The Economist, observed more than 100 years ago: &#8220;John Bull can stand many things, but he cannot stand 2%.&#8221; Sound &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/05\/03\/australian-bank-growth-expected-to-slow\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Australian bank growth expected to slow&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,31,45],"tags":[1726,4038,2485,3439],"class_list":["post-18147","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-debt-levels","tag-household-debt","tag-major-banks","tag-nominal-gdp","tag-total-assets"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Australian bank growth expected to slow - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Australian bank growth expected to slow - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Last week I observed: &#8230;the RBA will resist cutting rates unless the situation gets really desperate. Ultra-low interest rates encourage risk-taking and speculative behavior, offering short-term gain but courting long-term disaster. Walter Bagehot, editor of The Economist, observed more than 100 years ago: &#8220;John Bull can stand many things, but he cannot stand 2%.&#8221; Sound &hellip; Continue reading &quot;Australian bank growth expected to slow&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/05\/03\/australian-bank-growth-expected-to-slow\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-05-03T20:59:11+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/static.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-05-03-banks-gdp.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/05\/03\/australian-bank-growth-expected-to-slow\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/05\/03\/australian-bank-growth-expected-to-slow\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"Australian bank growth expected to slow\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-05-03T20:59:11+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/05\/03\/australian-bank-growth-expected-to-slow\/\"},\"wordCount\":250,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/05\/03\/australian-bank-growth-expected-to-slow\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-05-03-banks-gdp.png\",\"keywords\":[\"household debt\",\"major banks\",\"nominal GDP\",\"total assets\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Australia &amp; NZ\",\"Banks &amp; Interest Rates\",\"Debt Levels\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/05\/03\/australian-bank-growth-expected-to-slow\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/05\/03\/australian-bank-growth-expected-to-slow\/\",\"name\":\"Australian bank growth expected to slow - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/05\/03\/australian-bank-growth-expected-to-slow\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/05\/03\/australian-bank-growth-expected-to-slow\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-05-03-banks-gdp.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-05-03T20:59:11+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/05\/03\/australian-bank-growth-expected-to-slow\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/05\/03\/australian-bank-growth-expected-to-slow\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/05\/03\/australian-bank-growth-expected-to-slow\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-05-03-banks-gdp.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-05-03-banks-gdp.png\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/05\/03\/australian-bank-growth-expected-to-slow\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Australian bank growth expected to slow\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. Strategic. Unfiltered. \",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1\",\"width\":250,\"height\":250,\"caption\":\"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\",\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor\"]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\",\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Colin Twiggs\"},\"description\":\"Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\",\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor\",\"https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs\"],\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Australian bank growth expected to slow - the patient investor","robots":{"index":"noindex","follow":"follow"},"og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Australian bank growth expected to slow - the patient investor","og_description":"Last week I observed: &#8230;the RBA will resist cutting rates unless the situation gets really desperate. Ultra-low interest rates encourage risk-taking and speculative behavior, offering short-term gain but courting long-term disaster. Walter Bagehot, editor of The Economist, observed more than 100 years ago: &#8220;John Bull can stand many things, but he cannot stand 2%.&#8221; Sound &hellip; Continue reading \"Australian bank growth expected to slow\"","og_url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/05\/03\/australian-bank-growth-expected-to-slow\/","og_site_name":"the patient investor","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810","article_author":"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","article_published_time":"2019-05-03T20:59:11+00:00","og_image":[{"url":"http:\/\/static.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-05-03-banks-gdp.png","type":"","width":"","height":""}],"author":"Colin Twiggs","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Colin Twiggs","Est. reading time":"1 minute"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/05\/03\/australian-bank-growth-expected-to-slow\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/05\/03\/australian-bank-growth-expected-to-slow\/"},"author":{"name":"Colin Twiggs","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454"},"headline":"Australian bank growth expected to slow","datePublished":"2019-05-03T20:59:11+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/05\/03\/australian-bank-growth-expected-to-slow\/"},"wordCount":250,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/05\/03\/australian-bank-growth-expected-to-slow\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-05-03-banks-gdp.png","keywords":["household debt","major banks","nominal GDP","total assets"],"articleSection":["Australia &amp; NZ","Banks &amp; Interest Rates","Debt Levels"],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/05\/03\/australian-bank-growth-expected-to-slow\/","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/05\/03\/australian-bank-growth-expected-to-slow\/","name":"Australian bank growth expected to slow - the patient investor","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/05\/03\/australian-bank-growth-expected-to-slow\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/05\/03\/australian-bank-growth-expected-to-slow\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-05-03-banks-gdp.png","datePublished":"2019-05-03T20:59:11+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/05\/03\/australian-bank-growth-expected-to-slow\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/05\/03\/australian-bank-growth-expected-to-slow\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/05\/03\/australian-bank-growth-expected-to-slow\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-05-03-banks-gdp.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-05-03-banks-gdp.png"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/05\/03\/australian-bank-growth-expected-to-slow\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Australian bank growth expected to slow"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/","name":"The Patient Investor","description":"Smart. Strategic. Unfiltered. ","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization","name":"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1","contentUrl":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1","width":250,"height":250,"caption":"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor"]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454","name":"Colin Twiggs","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Colin Twiggs"},"description":"Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-4IH","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":19379,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/14\/australia-major-banks\/","url_meta":{"origin":18147,"position":0},"title":"Australia: Major banks","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 14, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Summary Our review of APRA's June 2019 quarterly report on the four major banks -- Commonwealth, Westpac, ANZ and NAB -- concludes that they are collectively priced at a 16.5% premium over fair value. Technically, the ASX 300 Banks Index ($XBAK) is experiencing secondary selling pressure and a correction is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":22587,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/11\/11\/low-interest-rates-no-free-lunch\/","url_meta":{"origin":18147,"position":1},"title":"Low interest rates: No free lunch","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 11, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Total assets of commercial banks in the US spiked up by $2.5 trillion (T) in the three months ending April 2020. Since then, total assets have contracted slightly (-$117bn) but, while total assets have hardly changed, this hides some far sharper changes in the composition. Consumers Consumer loans fell sharply\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":25434,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/04\/22\/fed-taper-luke-gromen\/","url_meta":{"origin":18147,"position":2},"title":"Fed taper | Luke Gromen","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 22, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"From Luke Gromen at FTTT: Last week, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said that a 75% vaccination rate for Americans might be a target for when the Fed could begin thinking about tapering its bond buying programs. We agree with the 75% number, but believe the better target is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":45254,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/11\/08\/long-term-outlook-how-does-it-all-end\/","url_meta":{"origin":18147,"position":3},"title":"Long-term outlook: How does it all end?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 8, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"What economic path are the US and major allies likely to take over the next decade? Here is my take on how this is likely to pan out. First, let's start with a template of what a healthy, growing economy looks like. A Virtuous Cycle Growth is dependent on two\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;UK &amp; Europe&quot;","block_context":{"text":"UK &amp; Europe","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/uk-europe-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Private Investment\/GDP & Real GDP\/Total Non-farm Payroll","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-11-14-gpdi-gdp.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-11-14-gpdi-gdp.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-11-14-gpdi-gdp.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":58630,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/10\/23\/all-roads-lead-to-inflation\/","url_meta":{"origin":18147,"position":4},"title":"&#8220;All roads lead to inflation&#8221;","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 23, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Fed rate cuts have spiked long-term yields over the past three weeks, with the 10-year Treasury yield climbing to 4.2% on Tuesday. The bond market expects a resurgence of inflation. That may not be a policy defect but a policy goal. Paul Tudor Jones: \"All roads lead to inflation\" Veteran\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-22-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-22-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-22-tnx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":41466,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/04\/03\/economic-outlook-march-2023\/","url_meta":{"origin":18147,"position":5},"title":"Economic Outlook, March 2023","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 3, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Here is a summary of Colin Twiggs' presentation to investors at Beech Capital on March 30, 2023. The outlook covers seven themes: Elevated risk Bank contagion Underlying causes of instability Interest rates & inflation The impact on stocks Flight to safety Australian perspective 1. Elevated Risk We focus on three\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Treasury Yields: 10-Year minus 3-Month","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-03-31-10y3m.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-03-31-10y3m.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-03-31-10y3m.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18147","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18147"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18147\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18150,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18147\/revisions\/18150"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18147"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18147"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18147"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}