{"id":18146,"date":"2019-05-03T20:24:57","date_gmt":"2019-05-03T20:24:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=18146"},"modified":"2024-04-18T04:48:54","modified_gmt":"2024-04-18T04:48:54","slug":"asx-200-bull-trap","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/05\/03\/asx-200-bull-trap\/","title":{"rendered":"ASX 200 bull trap"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The ASX 200 retreated below its new support level at 6350, warning of a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/technical\/point_figure_bull_bear_traps.php\">bull trap<\/a>. Declining Money Flow peaks indicate selling pressure. Expect retracement to test support at 6000.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-05-03-xjo.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ASX 200\" \/><\/p>\n<p>With the Aussie Dollar testing support at 70 US cents, international investors are noticeably skittish, as illustrated by price action in REITs over the past few weeks. Penetration of the rising trendline warns of a correction.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-05-03-xpj.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ASX 200 REITs\" \/><\/p>\n<p>ASX 200 Financials is also retracing, to test its new support level at 6000. Lower peaks on the Money Flow indicator warn of secondary selling pressure.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-05-03-xfj.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ASX 200 Financials\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Banks face headwinds from a declining housing market and the RBNZ call for an additional $8.1 billion in common equity capital (as <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theage.com.au\/business\/banking-and-finance\/mess-for-australian-banks-isn-t-getting-cleaned-up-this-earnings-round-20190422-p51g6b.html\">estimated by S&amp;P Global Ratings<\/a>).<\/p>\n<p>Materials have started a correction after penetrating its rising trendline. Expect a test of support at 12000. Declining Money Flow peaks warn of strong selling pressure.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-05-03-xmj.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ASX 200 Materials\" \/><\/p>\n<p>I remain cautious on Australian stocks, especially banks, and hold more than 40% in cash and fixed interest in the <a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/07\/03\/australian-growth-portfolio\/\">Australian Growth<\/a> portfolio.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The ASX 200 retreated below its new support level at 6350, warning of a bull trap. Declining Money Flow peaks indicate selling pressure. Expect retracement to test support at 6000. With the Aussie Dollar testing support at 70 US cents, international investors are noticeably skittish, as illustrated by price action in REITs over the past &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/05\/03\/asx-200-bull-trap\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;ASX 200 bull trap&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,57],"tags":[251,1397,2254,4031],"class_list":["post-18146","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-stock-markets","tag-asx-200","tag-financials","tag-materials","tag-reits"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>ASX 200 bull trap - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The ASX 200 retreated below its new support level at 6350, warning of a bull trap.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/05\/03\/asx-200-bull-trap\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ASX 200 bull trap - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The ASX 200 retreated below its new support level at 6350, warning of a bull trap.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/05\/03\/asx-200-bull-trap\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-05-03T20:24:57+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-04-18T04:48:54+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-05-03-xjo.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/05\\\/03\\\/asx-200-bull-trap\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/05\\\/03\\\/asx-200-bull-trap\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"ASX 200 bull trap\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-05-03T20:24:57+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-04-18T04:48:54+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/05\\\/03\\\/asx-200-bull-trap\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":164,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/05\\\/03\\\/asx-200-bull-trap\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2018\\\/2019-05-03-xjo.png\",\"keywords\":[\"ASX 200\",\"Financials\",\"Materials\",\"REITs\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Australia &amp; 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-4IG","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":27522,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/08\/22\/asx-faces-pandemic-and-china-headwinds\/","url_meta":{"origin":18146,"position":0},"title":"ASX faces pandemic and China headwinds","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 22, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 200 rally finally succumbed to headwinds from falling iron ore prices and a surging Covid-19 pandemic. Breach of the rising trendline would warn of a correction but rising Twiggs Money Flow still signals long-term buying pressure. Third Wave The latest COVID-19 outbreak is reaching new highs of 6,000\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Aussie dollar&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Aussie dollar","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/forex\/aussie-dollar\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":22359,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/10\/31\/asx-rising-selling-pressure\/","url_meta":{"origin":18146,"position":1},"title":"ASX: Rising selling pressure","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 31, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 200 retreated from resistance at 6200, headed for another test of support at 5800, while a Money Flow peak below zero warns of strong selling pressure. Breach of 5800 is likely and would warn of a primary decline, testing support at 4500. The ASX 300 Banks index encountered\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":34928,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/06\/29\/asx-dead-cat-bounce-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":18146,"position":2},"title":"ASX dead cat bounce","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 29, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 200 is in a primary down-trend. Having found support at 6400, the index is retracing to test new resistance at the former primary support level of 7000. Respect would reinforce the bear market signal. Bond ETFs are in a primary down-trend, signaling rising long-term interest rates. A-REITs found\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"ASX 200","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-06-29-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-06-29-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-06-29-xjo.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-06-29-xjo.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":24542,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/03\/13\/asx-still-hesitant\/","url_meta":{"origin":18146,"position":3},"title":"ASX still hesitant","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 13, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Bond ETFs found support this week as long-term interest rates weakened. A-REITs are testing their new resistance level at 1400. Respect is likely if long-term yields continue to recover, and would confirm a target of 1200. Financials retraced to test short-term support at 6000, largely as the result of a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":34401,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/06\/12\/asx-confirms-a-bear-market\/","url_meta":{"origin":18146,"position":4},"title":"ASX confirms a bear market","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 12, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 200 broke primary support level at 7000, confirming a bear market. Long-term interest rates are rising, with bond ETFs falling. A-REITs respected resistance at the former primary support level of 1500, confirming the primary down-trend. Trend Index peaks below zero warn of strong selling pressure. Financials fell dramatically\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"ASX 200","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-06-12-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-06-12-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-06-12-xjo.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-06-12-xjo.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":21342,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/08\/29\/asx-miner-hiccup\/","url_meta":{"origin":18146,"position":5},"title":"ASX: Miner hiccup","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 29, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Daily new cases of COVID19 are now below 100 (compared to earlier highs of 715\/716). Too early to claim success but we are on the right path. ASX 200 The ASX 200 faltered, with declining Money Flow peaks warning of selling pressure. Breach of support at 5800 would signal a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18146","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18146"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18146\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":51342,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18146\/revisions\/51342"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18146"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18146"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18146"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}