{"id":18134,"date":"2019-04-26T23:42:23","date_gmt":"2019-04-26T23:42:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=18134"},"modified":"2019-04-26T23:42:23","modified_gmt":"2019-04-26T23:42:23","slug":"asx-200-breakout-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/04\/26\/asx-200-breakout-3\/","title":{"rendered":"ASX 200 breakout"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>ASX 200 Financials broke resistance at 6050, signaling continuation of the up-trend after a weak correction. Rising troughs on the Trend Index indicate buying pressure. The next target is the August 2018 high at 6450.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-04-26-xfj.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ASX 200 Financials\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Low inflation, with <a href=\"https:\/\/westpaciq.westpac.com.au\/Article\/38192\/7892\/\">March Quarter CPI<\/a> at 0%, increases the chance of another RBA rate cut. Short-term market response to this has been positive but we need to remember that the RBA will only cut rates, which are already at record lows, if the economy is going down the <em>gurgler<\/em>.\u00a0 Banks also face headwinds from a declining housing market and the RBNZ call for an additional $8.1 billion in common equity capital (as <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theage.com.au\/business\/banking-and-finance\/mess-for-australian-banks-isn-t-getting-cleaned-up-this-earnings-round-20190422-p51g6b.html\">estimated by S&amp;P Global Ratings<\/a>).<\/p>\n<p>Materials penetrated the rising trendline after encountering resistance at 13500. Expect another test of support at 12500.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-04-26-xmj.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ASX 200 Materials\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The ASX 200 broke resistance at 6350, signaling another advance. Expect retracement to test the new support level (at 6350). Respect would strengthen the bull signal.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-04-26-xjo.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ASX 200\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Long-term (LT) target for an advance is 7400 but I remain cautious on Australian stocks, especially banks, and hold more than 40% in cash and fixed interest in the <a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/07\/03\/australian-growth-portfolio\/\">Australian Growth<\/a> portfolio.<\/p>\n<p>I suspect that the RBA will resist cutting rates unless the situation gets really desperate. Ultra-low interest rates encourage risk-taking and speculative behavior, offering short-term gain but courting long-term disaster. Walter Bagehot, editor of The Economist, observed more than 100 years ago: &#8220;John Bull can stand many things, but he cannot stand 2%.&#8221; Sound economic management requires that central bankers make the hard choices, resisting pressure from commercial banks and politicians.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>ASX 200 Financials broke resistance at 6050, signaling continuation of the up-trend after a weak correction. Rising troughs on the Trend Index indicate buying pressure. The next target is the August 2018 high at 6450. Low inflation, with March Quarter CPI at 0%, increases the chance of another RBA rate cut. Short-term market response to &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/04\/26\/asx-200-breakout-3\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;ASX 200 breakout&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,57],"tags":[251,1397,2254,4031],"class_list":["post-18134","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-stock-markets","tag-asx-200","tag-financials","tag-materials","tag-reits"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>ASX 200 breakout - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ASX 200 breakout - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"ASX 200 Financials broke resistance at 6050, signaling continuation of the up-trend after a weak correction. Rising troughs on the Trend Index indicate buying pressure. The next target is the August 2018 high at 6450. Low inflation, with March Quarter CPI at 0%, increases the chance of another RBA rate cut. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\\\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/facebook.com\\\/people\\\/The-Patient-Investor\\\/61572934660810\\\/\",\"https:\\\/\\\/www.instagram.com\\\/colin_thepatientinvestor\",\"https:\\\/\\\/au.linkedin.com\\\/in\\\/colintwiggs\"],\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/author\\\/investor\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"ASX 200 breakout - the patient investor","robots":{"index":"noindex","follow":"follow"},"og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"ASX 200 breakout - the patient investor","og_description":"ASX 200 Financials broke resistance at 6050, signaling continuation of the up-trend after a weak correction. Rising troughs on the Trend Index indicate buying pressure. The next target is the August 2018 high at 6450. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. 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Respect would signal another test of 8500, continuing the primary uptrend. Breach is less likely but would offer a target of 7500. The Financials sub-index (XFJ) is testing support at 8500.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Aussie dollar&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Aussie dollar","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/forex\/aussie-dollar\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"ASX 200 Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-12-20-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-12-20-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-12-20-xjo.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":61087,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/02\/20\/asx-200-falls-as-outlook-brightens\/","url_meta":{"origin":18134,"position":1},"title":"ASX 200 falls as outlook brightens","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 20, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The six-month annualized growth rate in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index rose to a more than two-year high, indicating a \"gradual recovery rather than a sudden surge,\" according to Matthew Hassan at Westpac. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased to 4.1% in January 2025, but the trend remained at 4.0%.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-02-20-aus-leading.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-02-20-aus-leading.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-02-20-aus-leading.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":61037,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/02\/18\/asx-200-falls-on-rba-rate-cut\/","url_meta":{"origin":18134,"position":2},"title":"ASX 200 falls on RBA rate cut","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 18, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The RBA cut its cash rate target by 25 basis points today but warned mortgage holders not to expect deep rate cuts. The primary basis for the rate cuts was the lower-than-expected CPI data for the December quarter, with the Trimmed Mean of CPI falling to 3.2%. The RBA lowered\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"RBA Cash Rate Target","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-02-18-rba-cashrate.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-02-18-rba-cashrate.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-02-18-rba-cashrate.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":31966,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/04\/09\/asx-braces-for-rising-interest-rates\/","url_meta":{"origin":18134,"position":3},"title":"ASX braces for rising interest rates","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 9, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 200 encountered resistance at 7600. Declining Trend Index peaks warn of stubborn resistance and reversal below 7400 would warn of another test of the former primary support level at 7200. Declining Bond ETFs warn of rising long-term interest rates. The futures market is pricing in a 3.25% rise\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"ASX 200","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-04-08-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-04-08-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-04-08-xjo.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-04-08-xjo.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":17729,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/01\/12\/asx-200-bear-rally\/","url_meta":{"origin":18134,"position":4},"title":"ASX 200 bear rally","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 12, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Credit growth in Australia is falling (with help from the Royal Commission) and broad money growth is anemic, below the lows of the GFC, warning that the economy is close to a contraction. Banks are particularly vulnerable because of the falling housing market. The bubble threatens to burst after a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":36788,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/08\/29\/asx-200-retreats-5\/","url_meta":{"origin":18134,"position":5},"title":"ASX 200 retreats","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 29, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The RBA Board is forecasting that inflation will peak at 7.75% then fall to 4.3% by the end of 2023. Westpac expects another 0.50% rate hike at the RBA's September meeting, followed by 0.25% at the next four meetings, culminating in a peak cash rate of 3.35% in February 2023.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"RBA Cash Rate","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-26-aus-cashrate.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18134","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18134"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18134\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18135,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18134\/revisions\/18135"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18134"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18134"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18134"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}