{"id":18119,"date":"2019-04-13T01:20:16","date_gmt":"2019-04-13T01:20:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=18119"},"modified":"2019-04-13T01:20:16","modified_gmt":"2019-04-13T01:20:16","slug":"sp-500-rate-cuts-and-employment","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/04\/13\/sp-500-rate-cuts-and-employment\/","title":{"rendered":"S&#038;P 500: Rate cuts and employment"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Ten-year Treasury yields rallied for the last two weeks but remain in a down-trend. Respect of resistance at 2.60% would warn of another decline.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-04-12-tnx.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"10-year Treasury yields\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Inflation is subdued and it would be difficult for the Fed to motivate a rate cut when inflation is close to its 2.0% target. The consumer price index (CPI) came in at 1.86% for the 12 months to March 2019, while the more stable Core CPI (ex- Food &amp; Energy) remains close to target at 2.04%.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-04-12-core-cpi.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"CPI and Core CPI\" \/><\/p>\n<p>After price stability, the second part of the Fed&#8217;s dual mandate is to maintain maximum sustainable employment. A review of the last three cycles shows the Fed raising the funds rate (FFR) to curb inflation and then being forced to cut (red highlights) when growth in employment slows.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-04-12-payroll-ffr.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Payroll Changes and Fed Funds Rate\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Total non-farm payrolls are currently growing at close to 2.0%. The Fed would normally need payroll growth to slow by at least 1.0% to motivate a rate cut. The exception is if inflation falls below target, then the Fed may act sooner.<\/p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 is headed for another test of its high at 2950, while Trend Index (13-week) recovered to signal moderate buying pressure.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-04-12-spx.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The Nasdaq 100 is similarly testing its earlier high at 7700.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-04-12-ndx.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Nasdaq 100\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Momentum is slowing and we can expect stubborn resistance at the former highs.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ten-year Treasury yields rallied for the last two weeks but remain in a down-trend. Respect of resistance at 2.60% would warn of another decline. Inflation is subdued and it would be difficult for the Fed to motivate a rate cut when inflation is close to its 2.0% target. The consumer price index (CPI) came in &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/04\/13\/sp-500-rate-cuts-and-employment\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;S&#038;P 500: Rate cuts and employment&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[57,34],"tags":[1313,3990,1353,2401,3010,4036],"class_list":["post-18119","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stock-markets","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-excess-reserves","tag-fed-assets","tag-fed-funds-rate","tag-nasdaq-100","tag-sp-500","tag-total-nonfarm-payroll"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>S&amp;P 500: Rate cuts and employment - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"S&amp;P 500: Rate cuts and employment - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Ten-year Treasury yields rallied for the last two weeks but remain in a down-trend. Respect of resistance at 2.60% would warn of another decline. Inflation is subdued and it would be difficult for the Fed to motivate a rate cut when inflation is close to its 2.0% target. The consumer price index (CPI) came in &hellip; Continue reading &quot;S&#038;P 500: Rate cuts and employment&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/04\/13\/sp-500-rate-cuts-and-employment\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-04-13T01:20:16+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/static.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-04-12-tnx.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/04\\\/13\\\/sp-500-rate-cuts-and-employment\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/04\\\/13\\\/sp-500-rate-cuts-and-employment\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"S&#038;P 500: Rate cuts and employment\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-04-13T01:20:16+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/04\\\/13\\\/sp-500-rate-cuts-and-employment\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":213,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/04\\\/13\\\/sp-500-rate-cuts-and-employment\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2018\\\/2019-04-12-tnx.png\",\"keywords\":[\"excess reserves\",\"Fed Assets\",\"Fed funds rate\",\"NASDAQ 100\",\"S&amp;P 500\",\"Total Nonfarm Payroll\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Stock Markets\",\"US &amp; Canada\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/04\\\/13\\\/sp-500-rate-cuts-and-employment\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/04\\\/13\\\/sp-500-rate-cuts-and-employment\\\/\",\"name\":\"S&P 500: Rate cuts and employment - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/04\\\/13\\\/sp-500-rate-cuts-and-employment\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/04\\\/13\\\/sp-500-rate-cuts-and-employment\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2018\\\/2019-04-12-tnx.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-04-13T01:20:16+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/04\\\/13\\\/sp-500-rate-cuts-and-employment\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/04\\\/13\\\/sp-500-rate-cuts-and-employment\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/04\\\/13\\\/sp-500-rate-cuts-and-employment\\\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2018\\\/2019-04-12-tnx.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2018\\\/2019-04-12-tnx.png\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/04\\\/13\\\/sp-500-rate-cuts-and-employment\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"S&#038;P 500: Rate cuts and employment\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-4If","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":32463,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/05\/05\/fed-rate-hikes-strain-credibility\/","url_meta":{"origin":18119,"position":0},"title":"Fed rate hike but credibility strained","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 5, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The Federal Reserve FOMC hiked their overnight target rate by 0.50% -- the biggest jump in 22 years -- to a range of 0.75% to 1.0%. Stocks reacted positively to Chairman Jerome Powell's statement that the Fed isn't considering raising rates by three-quarters of a percentage point, with the Dow\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Deficit Spending &amp; Employment&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending &amp; Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Fed Funds Rate Target & CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-03-ffr-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-03-ffr-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-03-ffr-cpi.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-03-ffr-cpi.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":43397,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/08\/11\/cpi-falls-but-fed-unlikely-to-relent\/","url_meta":{"origin":18119,"position":1},"title":"CPI falls but Fed unlikely to relent","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 11, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"CPI fell to 3.1% for the 12 months to July, while core CPI (excluding food & energy) eased to 4.9%. What is most encouraging is that the last two months registered annualized growth of close to the Fed's 2.0% target. Food CPI declined steeply, to 4.8% for the 12 months\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Deficit Spending &amp; Employment&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending &amp; Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"CPI & Core CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-08-10-cpi-core.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-08-10-cpi-core.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-08-10-cpi-core.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":62431,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/09\/12\/powells-dilemma-monthly-cpi-above-4-0\/","url_meta":{"origin":18119,"position":2},"title":"Powell&#8217;s Dilemma: Monthly CPI above 4.0%","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 12, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points CPI and core CPI are grew at annualized rates above 4.0% in August. We expect the Fed to still cut rates in September despite the risk when unemployment is low. Long-term yields are falling, and the Dow climbed to a new high above 46,000, confirming the bull market.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"CPI & Core CPI - Annual","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-11-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-11-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-11-cpi.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":33615,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/05\/27\/chances-of-a-recession\/","url_meta":{"origin":18119,"position":3},"title":"Fed rate hikes and a recession","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 27, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Larry Summers warns that we are headed for a recession within two years: \u201cIf you look at history, there has never been a moment where inflation is above 4% and unemployment is below 5% where we did not have a recession within the next two years.\u201d (Barrons) What is interesting\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-27-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-27-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-27-cpi.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-27-cpi.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":38318,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/10\/25\/the-fed-inflation-lessons-from-the-past\/","url_meta":{"origin":18119,"position":4},"title":"The Fed &#038; Inflation: Lessons from the past","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 25, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"In 1974, the Fed, under Chairman Arthur Burns, succumbed to political pressure from the White House and cut rates while inflation was still strong. The FOMC had hiked rates to contain a burst in inflation from the 1973 Middle East oil embargo but then cut too early -- from 12.9%\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Fed Funds Rate & CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-24-cpi-ffr-70s.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-24-cpi-ffr-70s.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-24-cpi-ffr-70s.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":38490,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/11\/03\/fed-hikes-now-pain-comes-later\/","url_meta":{"origin":18119,"position":5},"title":"Fed hikes now, pain comes later","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 3, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Fed Chairman Jerome Powell announced a 75 basis point increase in the Fed funds target rate at his post-FOMC press conference today: \"Today, the FOMC raised our policy interest rate by 75 basis points, and we continue to anticipate that ongoing increases will be appropriate. We are moving our policy\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Fed Funds Rate","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-11-02-ffr-hike.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-11-02-ffr-hike.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-11-02-ffr-hike.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18119","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18119"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18119\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18120,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18119\/revisions\/18120"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18119"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18119"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18119"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}