{"id":18119,"date":"2019-04-13T01:20:16","date_gmt":"2019-04-13T01:20:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=18119"},"modified":"2019-04-13T01:20:16","modified_gmt":"2019-04-13T01:20:16","slug":"sp-500-rate-cuts-and-employment","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/04\/13\/sp-500-rate-cuts-and-employment\/","title":{"rendered":"S&#038;P 500: Rate cuts and employment"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Ten-year Treasury yields rallied for the last two weeks but remain in a down-trend. Respect of resistance at 2.60% would warn of another decline.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-04-12-tnx.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"10-year Treasury yields\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Inflation is subdued and it would be difficult for the Fed to motivate a rate cut when inflation is close to its 2.0% target. The consumer price index (CPI) came in at 1.86% for the 12 months to March 2019, while the more stable Core CPI (ex- Food &amp; Energy) remains close to target at 2.04%.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-04-12-core-cpi.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"CPI and Core CPI\" \/><\/p>\n<p>After price stability, the second part of the Fed&#8217;s dual mandate is to maintain maximum sustainable employment. A review of the last three cycles shows the Fed raising the funds rate (FFR) to curb inflation and then being forced to cut (red highlights) when growth in employment slows.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-04-12-payroll-ffr.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Payroll Changes and Fed Funds Rate\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Total non-farm payrolls are currently growing at close to 2.0%. The Fed would normally need payroll growth to slow by at least 1.0% to motivate a rate cut. The exception is if inflation falls below target, then the Fed may act sooner.<\/p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 is headed for another test of its high at 2950, while Trend Index (13-week) recovered to signal moderate buying pressure.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-04-12-spx.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The Nasdaq 100 is similarly testing its earlier high at 7700.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-04-12-ndx.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Nasdaq 100\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Momentum is slowing and we can expect stubborn resistance at the former highs.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ten-year Treasury yields rallied for the last two weeks but remain in a down-trend. Respect of resistance at 2.60% would warn of another decline. Inflation is subdued and it would be difficult for the Fed to motivate a rate cut when inflation is close to its 2.0% target. The consumer price index (CPI) came in &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/04\/13\/sp-500-rate-cuts-and-employment\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;S&#038;P 500: Rate cuts and employment&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[57,34],"tags":[1313,3990,1353,2401,3010,4036],"class_list":["post-18119","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stock-markets","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-excess-reserves","tag-fed-assets","tag-fed-funds-rate","tag-nasdaq-100","tag-sp-500","tag-total-nonfarm-payroll"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>S&amp;P 500: Rate cuts and employment - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"S&amp;P 500: Rate cuts and employment - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Ten-year Treasury yields rallied for the last two weeks but remain in a down-trend. Respect of resistance at 2.60% would warn of another decline. Inflation is subdued and it would be difficult for the Fed to motivate a rate cut when inflation is close to its 2.0% target. The consumer price index (CPI) came in &hellip; Continue reading &quot;S&#038;P 500: Rate cuts and employment&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/04\/13\/sp-500-rate-cuts-and-employment\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-04-13T01:20:16+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/static.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-04-12-tnx.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/04\\\/13\\\/sp-500-rate-cuts-and-employment\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/04\\\/13\\\/sp-500-rate-cuts-and-employment\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"S&#038;P 500: Rate cuts and employment\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-04-13T01:20:16+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/04\\\/13\\\/sp-500-rate-cuts-and-employment\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":213,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/04\\\/13\\\/sp-500-rate-cuts-and-employment\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2018\\\/2019-04-12-tnx.png\",\"keywords\":[\"excess reserves\",\"Fed Assets\",\"Fed funds rate\",\"NASDAQ 100\",\"S&amp;P 500\",\"Total Nonfarm Payroll\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Stock Markets\",\"US &amp; Canada\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/04\\\/13\\\/sp-500-rate-cuts-and-employment\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/04\\\/13\\\/sp-500-rate-cuts-and-employment\\\/\",\"name\":\"S&P 500: Rate cuts and employment - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/04\\\/13\\\/sp-500-rate-cuts-and-employment\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/04\\\/13\\\/sp-500-rate-cuts-and-employment\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2018\\\/2019-04-12-tnx.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-04-13T01:20:16+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/04\\\/13\\\/sp-500-rate-cuts-and-employment\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/04\\\/13\\\/sp-500-rate-cuts-and-employment\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/04\\\/13\\\/sp-500-rate-cuts-and-employment\\\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2018\\\/2019-04-12-tnx.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2018\\\/2019-04-12-tnx.png\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/04\\\/13\\\/sp-500-rate-cuts-and-employment\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"S&#038;P 500: Rate cuts and employment\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients. Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients. Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-4If","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":32463,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/05\/05\/fed-rate-hikes-strain-credibility\/","url_meta":{"origin":18119,"position":0},"title":"Fed rate hike but credibility strained","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 5, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The Federal Reserve FOMC hiked their overnight target rate by 0.50% -- the biggest jump in 22 years -- to a range of 0.75% to 1.0%. Stocks reacted positively to Chairman Jerome Powell's statement that the Fed isn't considering raising rates by three-quarters of a percentage point, with the Dow\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Deficit Spending &amp; Employment&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending &amp; Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Fed Funds Rate Target & CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-03-ffr-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-03-ffr-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-03-ffr-cpi.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-03-ffr-cpi.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":43397,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/08\/11\/cpi-falls-but-fed-unlikely-to-relent\/","url_meta":{"origin":18119,"position":1},"title":"CPI falls but Fed unlikely to relent","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 11, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"CPI fell to 3.1% for the 12 months to July, while core CPI (excluding food & energy) eased to 4.9%. What is most encouraging is that the last two months registered annualized growth of close to the Fed's 2.0% target. Food CPI declined steeply, to 4.8% for the 12 months\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Deficit Spending &amp; Employment&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending &amp; Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"CPI & Core CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-08-10-cpi-core.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-08-10-cpi-core.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-08-10-cpi-core.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":62431,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/09\/12\/powells-dilemma-monthly-cpi-above-4-0\/","url_meta":{"origin":18119,"position":2},"title":"Powell&#8217;s Dilemma: Monthly CPI above 4.0%","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 12, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points CPI and core CPI are grew at annualized rates above 4.0% in August. We expect the Fed to still cut rates in September despite the risk when unemployment is low. Long-term yields are falling, and the Dow climbed to a new high above 46,000, confirming the bull market.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"CPI & Core CPI - Annual","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-11-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-11-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-11-cpi.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":33615,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/05\/27\/chances-of-a-recession\/","url_meta":{"origin":18119,"position":3},"title":"Fed rate hikes and a recession","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 27, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Larry Summers warns that we are headed for a recession within two years: \u201cIf you look at history, there has never been a moment where inflation is above 4% and unemployment is below 5% where we did not have a recession within the next two years.\u201d (Barrons) What is interesting\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-27-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-27-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-27-cpi.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-27-cpi.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":38318,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/10\/25\/the-fed-inflation-lessons-from-the-past\/","url_meta":{"origin":18119,"position":4},"title":"The Fed &#038; Inflation: Lessons from the past","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 25, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"In 1974, the Fed, under Chairman Arthur Burns, succumbed to political pressure from the White House and cut rates while inflation was still strong. The FOMC had hiked rates to contain a burst in inflation from the 1973 Middle East oil embargo but then cut too early -- from 12.9%\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Fed Funds Rate & CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-24-cpi-ffr-70s.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-24-cpi-ffr-70s.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-24-cpi-ffr-70s.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":38490,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/11\/03\/fed-hikes-now-pain-comes-later\/","url_meta":{"origin":18119,"position":5},"title":"Fed hikes now, pain comes later","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 3, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Fed Chairman Jerome Powell announced a 75 basis point increase in the Fed funds target rate at his post-FOMC press conference today: \"Today, the FOMC raised our policy interest rate by 75 basis points, and we continue to anticipate that ongoing increases will be appropriate. We are moving our policy\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Fed Funds Rate","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-11-02-ffr-hike.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-11-02-ffr-hike.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-11-02-ffr-hike.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18119","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18119"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18119\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18120,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18119\/revisions\/18120"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18119"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18119"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18119"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}