{"id":18091,"date":"2019-04-05T23:23:09","date_gmt":"2019-04-05T23:23:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=18091"},"modified":"2019-04-05T23:23:09","modified_gmt":"2019-04-05T23:23:09","slug":"sp-500-expect-slower-earnings-growth-but-no-sign-of-recession","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/04\/05\/sp-500-expect-slower-earnings-growth-but-no-sign-of-recession\/","title":{"rendered":"S&P 500: Expect slower earnings growth but no sign of recession"},"content":{"rendered":"

Credit growth in the US above 5% shows no signs of tighter credit conditions from an inverted yield curve. Growth in the broad money supply (MZM plus time deposits) has also not slowed, remaining close to 5%.<\/p>\n

\"Credit<\/p>\n

Growth in hours worked has slowed to 1.71%, suggesting that real GDP growth will dip below 2% in 2019 but remain positive.<\/p>\n

\"Hours<\/p>\n

The Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates when average hourly earnings are growing at 3.2% (Total Private for the 12 months ended March 2019).<\/p>\n

\"Average<\/p>\n

The Leading Index from the Philadelphia Fed fell below 1%, giving an early warning that GDP growth will slow.<\/p>\n

\"Philadelphia<\/p>\n

A similar dip below 1% occurred ahead of the last three recessions. A second, stronger dip would warn of recession ahead.<\/p>\n

\"Philadelphia<\/p>\n

The S&P 500 is advancing to test resistance at 2950\/3000, while the Volatility Index crossed below 1%, signaling that risk is no longer elevated.<\/p>\n

\"Treasury<\/p>\n

Real GDP is likely to slow this year but remain positive. S&P 500 earnings growth is expected to slow and the index is likely to meet stubborn resistance at 2950\/3000. The Fed is still a long way off cutting interest rates (a strong bear signal) and there is no sign of recession on the 2019 horizon. An extended top is the most likely outcome.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Credit growth in the US above 5% shows no signs of tighter credit conditions from an inverted yield curve. Growth in the broad money supply (MZM plus time deposits) has also not slowed, remaining close to 5%. Growth in hours worked has slowed to 1.71%, suggesting that real GDP growth will dip below 2% in … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “S&P 500: Expect slower earnings growth but no sign of recession”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,46,3761,57,34],"tags":[314,3935,881,1723,2076,2870,3010],"class_list":["post-18091","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-deficit-spending-employment","category-gdp-and-activity","category-stock-markets","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-average-hourly-earnings","tag-broad-money","tag-credit-growth","tag-hours-worked","tag-leading-index","tag-real-gdp","tag-sp-500"],"yoast_head":"\nS&P 500: Expect slower earnings growth but no sign of recession - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"S&P 500: Expect slower earnings growth but no sign of recession - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Credit growth in the US above 5% shows no signs of tighter credit conditions from an inverted yield curve. 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Unemployment also rose, by 340K, suggesting a 655K increase in the workforce as rising prices and declining stock values reduce the allure of early retirement. 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The picture reinforces a steeply-climbing Freight Transportation Index, indicating strong economic activity. Concerns that the economy may over-heat, spiking inflation, are not reflected in strong\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":16550,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/07\/07\/sp-500-and-nasdaq-relief\/","url_meta":{"origin":18091,"position":4},"title":"S&P 500 and Nasdaq relief","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 7, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"June average hourly earnings growth came in flat at 2.74% for Total Private sector and 2.72% for Production and Non-supervisory Employees. This suuports the argument that underlying inflation remains benign, easing pressure on the Fed to accelerate interest rates. The S&P 500 rallied off its long-term rising trendline. Follow-through above\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "GDP and Activity"","block_context":{"text":"GDP and Activity","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/gdp-and-activity\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":38557,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/11\/05\/us-labor-market-easing-but-too-early-for-a-fed-pause\/","url_meta":{"origin":18091,"position":5},"title":"US labor market easing but too early for a Fed pause","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 5, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"October BLS labor statistics give a good insight into underlying inflationary pressures. Unemployment climbed slightly, to 6.06 million but lags a long way behind job openings (10.72 m), indicating a tight labor market. There has been speculation, however, that employers were hanging onto employees, rather than letting them go as\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Deficit Spending & Employment"","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending & Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Unemployment & Job Openings","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-11-04-u3-jolts.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-11-04-u3-jolts.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-11-04-u3-jolts.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18091","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18091"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18091\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18092,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18091\/revisions\/18092"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18091"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18091"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18091"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}