{"id":18091,"date":"2019-04-05T23:23:09","date_gmt":"2019-04-05T23:23:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=18091"},"modified":"2019-04-05T23:23:09","modified_gmt":"2019-04-05T23:23:09","slug":"sp-500-expect-slower-earnings-growth-but-no-sign-of-recession","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/04\/05\/sp-500-expect-slower-earnings-growth-but-no-sign-of-recession\/","title":{"rendered":"S&#038;P 500: Expect slower earnings growth but no sign of recession"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Credit growth in the US above 5% shows no signs of tighter credit conditions from an inverted yield curve. Growth in the broad money supply (MZM plus time deposits) has also not slowed, remaining close to 5%.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-04-05-credit-ms.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Credit Growth and Broad Money Supply\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Growth in hours worked has slowed to 1.71%, suggesting that real GDP growth will dip below 2% in 2019 but remain positive.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-04-05-realgdp.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Hours Worked and Real GDP growth\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates when average hourly earnings are growing at 3.2% (Total Private for the 12 months ended March 2019).<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-04-05-wages.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Average Hourly Wage Rate\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The Leading Index from the Philadelphia Fed fell below 1%, giving an early warning that GDP growth will slow.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-04-05-leading.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Philadelphia Fed Leading Index\" \/><\/p>\n<p>A similar dip below 1% occurred ahead of the last three recessions. A second, stronger dip would warn of recession ahead.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-04-05-leading-past.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Philadelphia Fed Leading Index\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 is advancing to test resistance at 2950\/3000, while the Volatility Index crossed below 1%, signaling that risk is no longer elevated.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-04-05-spx.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Treasury Yields\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Real GDP is likely to slow this year but remain positive. S&amp;P 500 earnings growth is expected to slow and the index is likely to meet stubborn resistance at 2950\/3000. The Fed is still a long way off cutting interest rates (a strong bear signal) and there is no sign of recession on the 2019 horizon. An extended top is the most likely outcome.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Credit growth in the US above 5% shows no signs of tighter credit conditions from an inverted yield curve. Growth in the broad money supply (MZM plus time deposits) has also not slowed, remaining close to 5%. Growth in hours worked has slowed to 1.71%, suggesting that real GDP growth will dip below 2% in &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/04\/05\/sp-500-expect-slower-earnings-growth-but-no-sign-of-recession\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;S&#038;P 500: Expect slower earnings growth but no sign of recession&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,46,3761,57,34],"tags":[314,3935,881,1723,2076,2870,3010],"class_list":["post-18091","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-deficit-spending-employment","category-gdp-and-activity","category-stock-markets","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-average-hourly-earnings","tag-broad-money","tag-credit-growth","tag-hours-worked","tag-leading-index","tag-real-gdp","tag-sp-500"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>S&amp;P 500: Expect slower earnings growth but no sign of recession - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"S&amp;P 500: Expect slower earnings growth but no sign of recession - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Credit growth in the US above 5% shows no signs of tighter credit conditions from an inverted yield curve. Growth in the broad money supply (MZM plus time deposits) has also not slowed, remaining close to 5%. Growth in hours worked has slowed to 1.71%, suggesting that real GDP growth will dip below 2% in &hellip; Continue reading &quot;S&#038;P 500: Expect slower earnings growth but no sign of recession&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/04\/05\/sp-500-expect-slower-earnings-growth-but-no-sign-of-recession\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-04-05T23:23:09+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/static.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-04-05-credit-ms.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/04\\\/05\\\/sp-500-expect-slower-earnings-growth-but-no-sign-of-recession\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/04\\\/05\\\/sp-500-expect-slower-earnings-growth-but-no-sign-of-recession\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"S&#038;P 500: Expect slower earnings growth but no sign of recession\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-04-05T23:23:09+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/04\\\/05\\\/sp-500-expect-slower-earnings-growth-but-no-sign-of-recession\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":211,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/04\\\/05\\\/sp-500-expect-slower-earnings-growth-but-no-sign-of-recession\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2018\\\/2019-04-05-credit-ms.png\",\"keywords\":[\"Average Hourly Earnings\",\"broad money\",\"credit growth\",\"hours worked\",\"Leading Index\",\"Real GDP\",\"S&amp;P 500\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Banks &amp; 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients. Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-4HN","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":18157,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/05\/04\/employment-lifts-but-sp-500-tentative\/","url_meta":{"origin":18091,"position":0},"title":"Employment lifts but S&#038;P 500 tentative","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 4, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Growth in total non-farm payrolls ticked up to 1.76% for the 12 months to April 2019, supporting Fed reluctance to cut interest rates. The Philadelphia Fed Leading Index has been revised upwards, above a comfortable 1.0%. Real GDP growth came in at a healthy 3.2% for the 12 months ended\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Commodities&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Commodities","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/commodities-gold-commodities\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":48042,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/02\/03\/strong-jobs-data-but-dont-be-deceived\/","url_meta":{"origin":18091,"position":1},"title":"Strong jobs data but don&#8217;t be deceived","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 3, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 rallied to 4958 on a strong January jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), reinforcing our medium-term target of 5100. Small caps, however, remain cautious, with the iShares Russell 2000 Small Caps ETF (IWM) still close to medium-term support at 188\/190. The 10-year Treasury yield\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Deficit Spending &amp; Employment&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending &amp; Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-03-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-03-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-03-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":36972,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/09\/03\/more-us-jobs-growth\/","url_meta":{"origin":18091,"position":2},"title":"More US jobs growth","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 3, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The US economy added 315K new jobs in August, but the rate of growth is clearly slowing. Unemployment also rose, by 340K, suggesting a 655K increase in the workforce as rising prices and declining stock values reduce the allure of early retirement. But job openings still exceed unemployment by more\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Deficit Spending &amp; Employment&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending &amp; Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Employment","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-09-02-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-09-02-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-09-02-jobs.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":16843,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/08\/18\/sp-500-volatility-falls\/","url_meta":{"origin":18091,"position":3},"title":"S&#038;P 500 volatility falls","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 18, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"The Philadelphia Fed Leading Index at 1.42 for June 2018 maintains a healthy margin above the 1% level that would warn of a potential slow-down. The picture reinforces a steeply-climbing Freight Transportation Index, indicating strong economic activity. Concerns that the economy may over-heat, spiking inflation, are not reflected in strong\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":16550,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/07\/07\/sp-500-and-nasdaq-relief\/","url_meta":{"origin":18091,"position":4},"title":"S&#038;P 500 and Nasdaq relief","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 7, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"June average hourly earnings growth came in flat at 2.74% for Total Private sector and 2.72% for Production and Non-supervisory Employees. This suuports the argument that underlying inflation remains benign, easing pressure on the Fed to accelerate interest rates. The S&P 500 rallied off its long-term rising trendline. Follow-through above\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;GDP and Activity&quot;","block_context":{"text":"GDP and Activity","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/gdp-and-activity\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":38557,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/11\/05\/us-labor-market-easing-but-too-early-for-a-fed-pause\/","url_meta":{"origin":18091,"position":5},"title":"US labor market easing but too early for a Fed pause","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 5, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"October BLS labor statistics give a good insight into underlying inflationary pressures. Unemployment climbed slightly, to 6.06 million but lags a long way behind job openings (10.72 m), indicating a tight labor market. There has been speculation, however, that employers were hanging onto employees, rather than letting them go as\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Deficit Spending &amp; Employment&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending &amp; Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Unemployment & Job Openings","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-11-04-u3-jolts.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-11-04-u3-jolts.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-11-04-u3-jolts.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18091","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18091"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18091\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18092,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18091\/revisions\/18092"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18091"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18091"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18091"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}