{"id":18081,"date":"2019-04-05T05:38:13","date_gmt":"2019-04-05T05:38:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=18081"},"modified":"2019-04-05T05:38:13","modified_gmt":"2019-04-05T05:38:13","slug":"australia-headwinds-persist","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/04\/05\/australia-headwinds-persist\/","title":{"rendered":"Australia: Headwinds persist"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>From Elliot Clarke &amp; Simon Murray at <a href=\"https:\/\/westpaciq.westpac.com.au\/Article\/37954\/7892\/\">Westpac<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8230;the take home from Budget 2019 is that, while supportive of activity over the long-term, the near-term impact on incomes and activity is limited. Labor\u2019s alternative proposals, as per the budget reply, are also spread out over time. So no matter which party wins in May, the headwinds of persistent weak income growth and declining house prices are set to hold growth well below trend through 2019. This is clear justification for interest rate cuts from the RBA, which Westpac believes will come in August and November.<\/p>\n<p>While the RBA is yet to adopt an easing bias, the April meeting decision statement did emphasise the fluidity of the situation&#8230;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>The last sentence is important: the RBA has not yet adopted an easing bias. Perhaps because of the housing debt bubble.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-04-05-aus-hhdebt.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Australia: Household Debt and Disposable Income\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Business investment has already failed to respond to interest rate cuts.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-04-05-aus-business-investment.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Australia: Business Investment\" \/><\/p>\n<p>10-Year AGB yields are already below US Treasuries but have failed to significantly weaken the Australian Dollar.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-04-05-aus-bondyield.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Australia: Difference to US 10-Year Bond Yield\" \/><\/p>\n<p>House prices are falling.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-04-05-aus-housing.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Australia: Housing Prices\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Plunging high-density housing approvals promise a sharp slow-down in housing construction.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-04-05-aus-building-approvals.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Australia: Building Approvals\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Dwelling Investment is likely to join Mining Investment in the red, detracting from GDP growth. Windfall iron ore prices (Exports) are keeping the economy afloat, while they last.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-04-05-aus-gdp.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Australia: GDP Components\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Bank&#8217;s impaired and total non-performing assets are low, but likely to rise if the housing fall (and construction down-turn) continues.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-04-05-aus-bank-npa.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Australia: Bank Non-Performing Assets\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Bank capital ratios are modest at just over 10% of common equity (CET1) against risk-weighted assets. But that falls to about 5.5% without risk-weighting (leverage ratio). Not a lot of room for comfort.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-04-05-aus-bankcapital.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Australia: Bank Capital\" \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>From Elliot Clarke &amp; Simon Murray at Westpac: &#8230;the take home from Budget 2019 is that, while supportive of activity over the long-term, the near-term impact on incomes and activity is limited. Labor\u2019s alternative proposals, as per the budget reply, are also spread out over time. So no matter which party wins in May, the &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/04\/05\/australia-headwinds-persist\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Australia: Headwinds persist&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,57],"tags":[290,345,536,4032,1726,1732],"class_list":["post-18081","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-stock-markets","tag-australia","tag-bank-capital","tag-business-investment","tag-dwelling-construction","tag-household-debt","tag-housing"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Australia: Headwinds persist - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Australia: Headwinds persist - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"From Elliot Clarke &amp; Simon Murray at Westpac: &#8230;the take home from Budget 2019 is that, while supportive of activity over the long-term, the near-term impact on incomes and activity is limited. Labor\u2019s alternative proposals, as per the budget reply, are also spread out over time. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-4HD","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":15587,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/07\/07\/australia-faces-headwinds\/","url_meta":{"origin":18081,"position":0},"title":"Australia faces headwinds","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 7, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Australian wage rate growth, on the other hand, is declining. is in a worse position, with a dramatic fall in investment following the mining boom. Source: RBA & ABS As is inflation. Source: RBA & ABS Growth in Household Disposable Income and Consumption. Source: RBA & ABS And Banks return\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":61935,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/06\/10\/australia-cautiously-pessimistic\/","url_meta":{"origin":18081,"position":1},"title":"Australia: &#8220;cautiously pessimistic&#8221;","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 10, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Summary The ASX 200 threatens a new high But consumer sentiment is low Business conditions are weak Commodity exports are slowing, and so is economic growth ASX 200 earnings are likely to follow The ASX 200 is testing resistance at 8600. Breakout would signal a fresh advance, but the earnings\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"ASX 200 Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-10-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-10-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-10-xjo.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":38625,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/11\/08\/westpac-consumer-sentiment-falls-below-gfc-low\/","url_meta":{"origin":18081,"position":2},"title":"Westpac consumer sentiment falls below GFC low","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 8, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The Westpac Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index plunged to 78.0 in October, below the 79.0 low point of the 2008 global financial crisis and close to its April 2020 low at the outbreak of the COVID pandemic. Faced by the triple threat of rising inflation, rising interest rates and soaring\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Australia: Westpac Consumer Sentiment","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-11-08-aus-sentiment.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-11-08-aus-sentiment.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-11-08-aus-sentiment.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":59679,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/12\/05\/australia-rba-unlikely-to-play-santa\/","url_meta":{"origin":18081,"position":3},"title":"Australia: RBA unlikely to play Santa","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 5, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Despite the chorus of pleas from interest groups, the RBA is unlikely to deliver an early rate cut. Strong government spending prevents the slide into recession and increases upward pressure on prices. The ASX 200 also remains in a strong uptrend. ASX Stocks Australia's ASX 200 is testing resistance at\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"ASX 200 Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-12-05-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-12-05-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-12-05-xjo.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":35680,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/07\/12\/australia-consumer-sentiment-falls\/","url_meta":{"origin":18081,"position":4},"title":"Australia: Expect more rate hikes despite falling sentiment","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 12, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment fell 3.0% to 83.8 in July, from 86.4 in June. The index is approaching levels only seen during the 2008 global financial crisis and 2020 COVID pandemic. The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index similarly recorded a 3.7% drop in the past two\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-12-aus-sentiment.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-12-aus-sentiment.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-12-aus-sentiment.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":1696,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/11\/01\/westpac-rba-cuts-the-overnight-cash-rate-by-25bps\/","url_meta":{"origin":18081,"position":5},"title":"Westpac: RBA cuts the overnight cash rate by 25bps","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"November 1, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"RBA cuts the overnight cash rate by 25bps \u2013 first rate cut since April 2009 As we predicted the Reserve Bank Board decided to lower the cash rate by 25bps to 4.5%..... Undoubtedly the most important development in the Governor's statement is his observation that \"inflation is likely to be\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18081","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18081"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18081\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18086,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18081\/revisions\/18086"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18081"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18081"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18081"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}