{"id":18049,"date":"2019-03-30T00:18:44","date_gmt":"2019-03-30T00:18:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=18049"},"modified":"2019-03-30T00:18:44","modified_gmt":"2019-03-30T00:18:44","slug":"inverted-yield-curve-is-no-cause-for-panic-yet","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/03\/30\/inverted-yield-curve-is-no-cause-for-panic-yet\/","title":{"rendered":"Inverted yield curve is no cause for panic….yet"},"content":{"rendered":"

10-Year Treasury yields continue to fall. A Trend Index peak below zero signals strong selling pressure (purchases of bonds).\u00a0 Target for the decline is primary support at 2.0%.<\/p>\n

\"10-Year<\/p>\n

The spread between 10-Year and 3-Month Treasury yields is at zero, warning that the yield curve is about to invert. While there is no cause for panic, an inverted yield curve is a reliable predictor of recession within 12 to 18 months, preceding every recession since 1960*.<\/p>\n

*1966 is an arguable exception. Initially classed as a recession by the NBER, it was later reversed and airbrushed out of history.<\/em><\/p>\n

\"10-Year<\/p>\n

The 10-year\/3-Month spread last crossed below zero in August 2006 and was followed by a recession in December 2007. While credit conditions tighten when the yield curve inverts, there is considerable lag and the chart below shows that credit growth remains high while the yield curve is inverted.<\/p>\n

\"Yield<\/p>\n

A far more imminent warning (of recession) is when the yield differential recovers above zero.<\/p>\n

Why does a recovering yield curve warn of impending recession?<\/p>\n

First, you need to understand what causes the yield curve to invert. Economic prospects weaken to the extent that bond investors are prepared to accept lower long-term yields than the current short-term yield, in anticipation that interest rates will fall. The inverted yield curve will continue for as long as rates are expected to fall but will rapidly recover when the Fed starts to cut rates.<\/p>\n

\"Treasury<\/p>\n

Falling short-term yields flag that the Fed is cutting interest rates, confirming bond investors earlier suspicions of a weakening economy. That serves as a reliable warning, after an inverted yield curve, of impending recession.<\/p>\n

We are not there yet. The Fed may have eased off on further rate rises but is still some way off from cutting rates.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10-Year Treasury yields continue to fall. A Trend Index peak below zero signals strong selling pressure (purchases of bonds).\u00a0 Target for the decline is primary support at 2.0%. The spread between 10-Year and 3-Month Treasury yields is at zero, warning that the yield curve is about to invert. While there is no cause for panic, … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Inverted yield curve is no cause for panic….yet”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,34],"tags":[69,4028,3795,4027,3381],"class_list":["post-18049","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-10-year-treasury-yield","tag-3-month-t-bill-yield","tag-bank-credit","tag-inverted-yield-curve","tag-the-fed"],"yoast_head":"\nInverted yield curve is no cause for panic....yet - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Inverted yield curve is no cause for panic....yet - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"10-Year Treasury yields continue to fall. 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On the recession front, GDP recorded two quarters of negative growth -- a useful\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500 Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-20-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-20-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-20-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":16918,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/09\/01\/does-the-yield-curve-warn-of-a-recession\/","url_meta":{"origin":18049,"position":1},"title":"Does the yield curve warn of a recession?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 1, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"There has been talk in recent months about the narrowing yield curve and how this warns of a coming recession, normally accompanied by a graph of the 10-year\/2-year Treasury spread which fell to 0.22% at the end of August 2018. I have always used the 10-year minus the 3-month Treasury\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":36038,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/08\/01\/negative-yield-curves-and-market-timing\/","url_meta":{"origin":18049,"position":2},"title":"Negative yield curves and market timing","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 1, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The 10-Year\/3-Month Yield Differential is plunging towards zero. An inverted yield curve is one of the most reliable indicators of a coming recession. The 10-Year\/2-Year is already below zero but is less reliable. We prefer using the 3-Month T-Bill rate as it is a more accurate indication of Fed monetary\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year\/2-Year Yield Differential","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-01-10y3m-yielddiff.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-01-10y3m-yielddiff.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-01-10y3m-yielddiff.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":54594,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/06\/17\/market-risk-update\/","url_meta":{"origin":18049,"position":3},"title":"Market Risk Update","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 17, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Our risk assessment at Friday June 14th, 2024 remains bullish. Eight out of nine indicators are Risk On, with only the inverted yield-curve signaling Risk Off at this stage: Risk Indicators Here are the eleven indicators that we use to measure risk. Some of the indicators are combined in pairs:\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Risk Matrix","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-06-15-risk-matrix2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-06-15-risk-matrix2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-06-15-risk-matrix2.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":41573,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/04\/08\/jobs-data-fails-to-sway-bond-market\/","url_meta":{"origin":18049,"position":4},"title":"Jobs data fails to sway bond market","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 8, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Jobs growth remains bullish, adding 236,000 (seasonally adjusted) jobs in March '23. That failed to sway the bond market, with the negative yield curve steepening even further. The current -1.47% for the 10-Year\/3-Month Treasury spread is the lowest in more than forty years -- since the 1981 record of -1.91%.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Monthly Payroll Increase","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-04-08-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-04-08-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-04-08-jobs.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":31607,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/03\/22\/yield-curve-gymnastics\/","url_meta":{"origin":18049,"position":5},"title":"The yield curve recession warning","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 22, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"A great deal has been written in the past month above the flat 10-year\/2-year Treasury yield curve and the inevitability of recession if the slope turns negative. Wolf Richter sums up the problem: The weight of the Fed\u2019s gargantuan balance sheet is pushing down on long-term yields that the Fed\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"US Treasury Yield Curve","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/us-yield-curve-2022-03-21.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18049","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18049"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18049\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18052,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18049\/revisions\/18052"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18049"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18049"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18049"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}