{"id":18037,"date":"2019-03-23T00:06:53","date_gmt":"2019-03-23T00:06:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=18037"},"modified":"2019-03-23T00:06:53","modified_gmt":"2019-03-23T00:06:53","slug":"sp-500-treasuries-warn-of-a-bear-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/03\/23\/sp-500-treasuries-warn-of-a-bear-market\/","title":{"rendered":"S&P 500: Treasuries warn of a bear market"},"content":{"rendered":"

10-Year Treasury yields plunged Friday, to close at 2.45%, warning of a decline to test primary support at 2.0%.<\/p>\n

\"10-Year<\/p>\n

The yield curve is now likely to turn negative. The 10-Year\/2-Year yield differential has already fallen to 0.13%. Below zero signals a negative yield curve, a reliable predictor of oncoming recession within the next 12 to 18 months.<\/p>\n

\"10-Year<\/p>\n

The S&P 500 retreated Friday and is likely to breach its new support level at 2800. Follow-through below 2600 would warn of a bear market.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10-Year Treasury yields plunged Friday, to close at 2.45%, warning of a decline to test primary support at 2.0%. The yield curve is now likely to turn negative. The 10-Year\/2-Year yield differential has already fallen to 0.13%. Below zero signals a negative yield curve, a reliable predictor of oncoming recession within the next 12 to … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “S&P 500: Treasuries warn of a bear market”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,57,34],"tags":[4026,2880,3010,3725],"class_list":["post-18037","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-stock-markets","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-10_year-treasury-yield","tag-recession","tag-sp-500","tag-yield-curve"],"yoast_head":"\nS&P 500: Treasuries warn of a bear market - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"S&P 500: Treasuries warn of a bear market - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"10-Year Treasury yields plunged Friday, to close at 2.45%, warning of a decline to test primary support at 2.0%. The yield curve is now likely to turn negative. The 10-Year\/2-Year yield differential has already fallen to 0.13%. 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On the recession front, GDP recorded two quarters of negative growth -- a useful\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500 Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-20-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-20-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-20-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":54594,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/06\/17\/market-risk-update\/","url_meta":{"origin":18037,"position":1},"title":"Market Risk Update","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 17, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Our risk assessment at Friday June 14th, 2024 remains bullish. Eight out of nine indicators are Risk On, with only the inverted yield-curve signaling Risk Off at this stage: Risk Indicators Here are the eleven indicators that we use to measure risk. Some of the indicators are combined in pairs:\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Risk Matrix","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-06-15-risk-matrix2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-06-15-risk-matrix2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-06-15-risk-matrix2.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":36038,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/08\/01\/negative-yield-curves-and-market-timing\/","url_meta":{"origin":18037,"position":2},"title":"Negative yield curves and market timing","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 1, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The 10-Year\/3-Month Yield Differential is plunging towards zero. An inverted yield curve is one of the most reliable indicators of a coming recession. The 10-Year\/2-Year is already below zero but is less reliable. We prefer using the 3-Month T-Bill rate as it is a more accurate indication of Fed monetary\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year\/2-Year Yield Differential","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-01-10y3m-yielddiff.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-01-10y3m-yielddiff.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-01-10y3m-yielddiff.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":36579,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/08\/20\/base-case-global-recession\/","url_meta":{"origin":18037,"position":3},"title":"Base case: global recession","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 20, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The Treasury yield curve is flattening, with the 10-year\/3-month yield differential plunging sharply, to a current 0.24%. Another 75 basis point rate hike at the next FOMC meeting is expected to drive the 3-month T-Bill discount rate above the 10-year yield, the negative spread warning of a deep recession in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year & minus 3-Month Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-19-10y3m.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-19-10y3m.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-19-10y3m.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":17120,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/10\/04\/treasury-yields-confirm-bond-bear-market\/","url_meta":{"origin":18037,"position":4},"title":"Treasury yields confirm bond bear market","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 4, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"10-Year Treasury yields respected their new support level at 3.00%, confirming a primary advance. Breakout above 3.00% also completes a double-bottom reversal, signaling the end of a three-decade-long secular bull market in bonds. The yield differential between 10-year and 3-month Treasuries is declining but a flat yield curve does not\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":36699,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/08\/24\/fed-rate-hikes-start-to-bite\/","url_meta":{"origin":18037,"position":5},"title":"Fed rate hikes start to bite","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 24, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 reversed below former primary support at 4200, warning of another test of 3650. Momentum peaking at zero (red arrows) suggests a strong down-trend. Breach of 3650 would offer a target of 3000. S&P Flash US Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) dropped to 45 in August, from 47.7\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-24-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-24-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-24-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18037","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18037"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18037\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18038,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18037\/revisions\/18038"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18037"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18037"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18037"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}