{"id":18037,"date":"2019-03-23T00:06:53","date_gmt":"2019-03-23T00:06:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=18037"},"modified":"2019-03-23T00:06:53","modified_gmt":"2019-03-23T00:06:53","slug":"sp-500-treasuries-warn-of-a-bear-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/03\/23\/sp-500-treasuries-warn-of-a-bear-market\/","title":{"rendered":"S&#038;P 500: Treasuries warn of a bear market"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>10-Year Treasury yields plunged Friday, to close at 2.45%, warning of a decline to test primary support at 2.0%.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-03-23-tnx.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"10-Year Treasury Yields\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The yield curve is now likely to turn negative. The 10-Year\/2-Year yield differential has already fallen to 0.13%. Below zero signals a negative yield curve, a reliable predictor of oncoming recession within the next 12 to 18 months.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-03-23-yieldcurve.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"10-Year minus 2-Year Treasury Yields\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 retreated Friday and is likely to breach its new support level at 2800. Follow-through below 2600 would warn of a bear market.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-03-23-spx.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500\" \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>10-Year Treasury yields plunged Friday, to close at 2.45%, warning of a decline to test primary support at 2.0%. The yield curve is now likely to turn negative. The 10-Year\/2-Year yield differential has already fallen to 0.13%. Below zero signals a negative yield curve, a reliable predictor of oncoming recession within the next 12 to &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/03\/23\/sp-500-treasuries-warn-of-a-bear-market\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;S&#038;P 500: Treasuries warn of a bear market&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,57,34],"tags":[4026,2880,3010,3725],"class_list":["post-18037","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-stock-markets","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-10_year-treasury-yield","tag-recession","tag-sp-500","tag-yield-curve"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>S&amp;P 500: Treasuries warn of a bear market - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"S&amp;P 500: Treasuries warn of a bear market - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"10-Year Treasury yields plunged Friday, to close at 2.45%, warning of a decline to test primary support at 2.0%. The yield curve is now likely to turn negative. The 10-Year\/2-Year yield differential has already fallen to 0.13%. Below zero signals a negative yield curve, a reliable predictor of oncoming recession within the next 12 to &hellip; Continue reading &quot;S&#038;P 500: Treasuries warn of a bear market&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/03\/23\/sp-500-treasuries-warn-of-a-bear-market\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-03-23T00:06:53+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/static.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-03-23-tnx.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/03\\\/23\\\/sp-500-treasuries-warn-of-a-bear-market\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/03\\\/23\\\/sp-500-treasuries-warn-of-a-bear-market\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"S&#038;P 500: Treasuries warn of a bear market\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-03-23T00:06:53+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/03\\\/23\\\/sp-500-treasuries-warn-of-a-bear-market\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":85,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/03\\\/23\\\/sp-500-treasuries-warn-of-a-bear-market\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2018\\\/2019-03-23-tnx.png\",\"keywords\":[\"10-Year Treasury Yield\",\"Recession\",\"S&amp;P 500\",\"Yield Curve\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Banks &amp; Interest Rates\",\"Stock Markets\",\"US &amp; Canada\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/03\\\/23\\\/sp-500-treasuries-warn-of-a-bear-market\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/03\\\/23\\\/sp-500-treasuries-warn-of-a-bear-market\\\/\",\"name\":\"S&P 500: Treasuries warn of a bear market - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/03\\\/23\\\/sp-500-treasuries-warn-of-a-bear-market\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/03\\\/23\\\/sp-500-treasuries-warn-of-a-bear-market\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2018\\\/2019-03-23-tnx.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-03-23T00:06:53+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/03\\\/23\\\/sp-500-treasuries-warn-of-a-bear-market\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/03\\\/23\\\/sp-500-treasuries-warn-of-a-bear-market\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/03\\\/23\\\/sp-500-treasuries-warn-of-a-bear-market\\\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2018\\\/2019-03-23-tnx.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2018\\\/2019-03-23-tnx.png\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/03\\\/23\\\/sp-500-treasuries-warn-of-a-bear-market\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"S&#038;P 500: Treasuries warn of a bear market\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients. Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit. 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On the recession front, GDP recorded two quarters of negative growth -- a useful\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500 Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-20-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-20-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-20-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":36038,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/08\/01\/negative-yield-curves-and-market-timing\/","url_meta":{"origin":18037,"position":1},"title":"Negative yield curves and market timing","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 1, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The 10-Year\/3-Month Yield Differential is plunging towards zero. An inverted yield curve is one of the most reliable indicators of a coming recession. The 10-Year\/2-Year is already below zero but is less reliable. We prefer using the 3-Month T-Bill rate as it is a more accurate indication of Fed monetary\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year\/2-Year Yield Differential","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-01-10y3m-yielddiff.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-01-10y3m-yielddiff.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-01-10y3m-yielddiff.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":54594,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/06\/17\/market-risk-update\/","url_meta":{"origin":18037,"position":2},"title":"Market Risk Update","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 17, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Our risk assessment at Friday June 14th, 2024 remains bullish. Eight out of nine indicators are Risk On, with only the inverted yield-curve signaling Risk Off at this stage: Risk Indicators Here are the eleven indicators that we use to measure risk. Some of the indicators are combined in pairs:\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Risk Matrix","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-06-15-risk-matrix2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-06-15-risk-matrix2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-06-15-risk-matrix2.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":17120,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/10\/04\/treasury-yields-confirm-bond-bear-market\/","url_meta":{"origin":18037,"position":3},"title":"Treasury yields confirm bond bear market","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 4, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"10-Year Treasury yields respected their new support level at 3.00%, confirming a primary advance. Breakout above 3.00% also completes a double-bottom reversal, signaling the end of a three-decade-long secular bull market in bonds. The yield differential between 10-year and 3-month Treasuries is declining but a flat yield curve does not\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":36579,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/08\/20\/base-case-global-recession\/","url_meta":{"origin":18037,"position":4},"title":"Base case: global recession","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 20, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The Treasury yield curve is flattening, with the 10-year\/3-month yield differential plunging sharply, to a current 0.24%. Another 75 basis point rate hike at the next FOMC meeting is expected to drive the 3-month T-Bill discount rate above the 10-year yield, the negative spread warning of a deep recession in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year & minus 3-Month Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-19-10y3m.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-19-10y3m.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-19-10y3m.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":36699,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/08\/24\/fed-rate-hikes-start-to-bite\/","url_meta":{"origin":18037,"position":5},"title":"Fed rate hikes start to bite","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 24, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 reversed below former primary support at 4200, warning of another test of 3650. Momentum peaking at zero (red arrows) suggests a strong down-trend. Breach of 3650 would offer a target of 3000. S&P Flash US Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) dropped to 45 in August, from 47.7\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-24-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-24-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-24-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18037","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18037"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18037\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18038,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18037\/revisions\/18038"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18037"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18037"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18037"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}