{"id":17989,"date":"2019-03-17T22:36:35","date_gmt":"2019-03-17T22:36:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=17989"},"modified":"2019-03-22T23:24:35","modified_gmt":"2019-03-22T23:24:35","slug":"theresa-may-how-to-herd-cats","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/03\/17\/theresa-may-how-to-herd-cats\/","title":{"rendered":"Theresa May: How to herd cats"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Theresa<\/p>\n

Theresa May has a task of Herculean proportions: to negotiate a Brexit deal that will gain approval from a divided British parliament and an obstinate EU. Securing a deal would make herding cats look easy.<\/p>\n

But Mohamed El Erian argues in Bloomberg<\/a> that the British prime minister is close to a deal with which everyone is “equally unhappy”. And it is “possible that May has managed to corner both her internal position and the EU, opening a wider window for the government to secure support for her deal in the coming weeks. To understand this, consider how the bargaining positions are changing not just because of the pending March 28 deadline but also, and more importantly, because of the European elections scheduled for May 23-26.<\/p>\n

More than the March 28 deadline, the European elections could well constitute a binding practical constraint on both the UK and EU, thereby significantly raising the probability of forcing the clarity and sufficient unity and cooperation needed for a workable proposal…..<\/p>\n

With many European officials likely to oppose UK participation in the elections, the prospects of a disorderly hard Brexit essentially imposing itself will prove very threatening to British politicians on both sides of the argument. In other words, a May-proposed deal that includes some further EU concessions will certainly still not be optimal for them but will be better than being widely blamed for the alternative. And Brussels would go ahead, also fearing the alternative.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s how this likely, though not yet overwhelmingly probable scenario would proceed: The May government would get agreement from parliament on a short-term extension to the March 28 deadline. This would be accepted by Brussels and allow for negotiations on some further concessions. Parliament would consider the revised deal and, after lots of noise and jockeying, agree to it before the European elections in which the UK would not participate.”<\/p>\n

With an extension beyond April out of the question, parliament faces a clear choice: accept Theresa May’s deal or face a no-deal, hard Brexit. Securing approval of a negotiated deal would be a massive win for May, Britain and the EU.<\/p>\n

Hat tip to Greg McKenna.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Theresa May has a task of Herculean proportions: to negotiate a Brexit deal that will gain approval from a divided British parliament and an obstinate EU. Securing a deal would make herding cats look easy. But Mohamed El Erian argues in Bloomberg that the British prime minister is close to a deal with which everyone … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Theresa May: How to herd cats”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[29,33],"tags":[497,1285,4024,3404],"class_list":["post-17989","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-big-picture","category-uk-europe-countries-regions","tag-brexit","tag-eu","tag-eu-elections","tag-theresa-may"],"yoast_head":"\nTheresa May: How to herd cats - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Theresa May: How to herd cats - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Theresa May has a task of Herculean proportions: to negotiate a Brexit deal that will gain approval from a divided British parliament and an obstinate EU. 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Dubbed the \u201cSingapore model\u201d, this is a scenario of British tax and regulatory \u201cdumping\u201d that European\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":14268,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/10\/05\/may-looks-beyond-brexit-bloomberg\/","url_meta":{"origin":17989,"position":3},"title":"May Looks Beyond Brexit | Bloomberg","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"October 5, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"Robert Hutton at Bloomberg discusses Theresa May's speech, Wednesday, at the Conservative Party\u2019s annual conference: ....May\u2019s comments mark a change of emphasis from the views of her predecessor. In his 11 years as Tory leader, David Cameron argued that the party needed to show that it was in touch with\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "The Big Picture"","block_context":{"text":"The Big Picture","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/the-big-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":13676,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/08\/05\/gold-shudders-on-strong-jobs-numbers\/","url_meta":{"origin":17989,"position":4},"title":"Gold shudders on strong jobs numbers","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"August 5, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"Long-term interest rates surged on strong jobs numbers, well above the estimate of 180,000. From the WSJ: Nonfarm payrolls rose by a seasonally adjusted 255,000 last month, the Labor Department said Friday. Revisions showed U.S. employers added 18,000 more jobs in May and June than previously estimated. 10-Year Treasury yields\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":8654,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/10\/22\/the-eu-should-take-inspiration-from-switzerland-in-its-attempts-to-increase-democratic-legitimacy-europp\/","url_meta":{"origin":17989,"position":5},"title":"The EU should take inspiration from Switzerland in its attempts to increase democratic legitimacy | EUROPP","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"October 22, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Joseph Lacey explains why the EU should follow the Swiss example: Three major factors help to explain how Switzerland is possible. First, there are national elections and nationally-held referendums connected to the workings of a national government. Second, though national elections only take place every five years, referendums are far\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "The Big Picture"","block_context":{"text":"The Big Picture","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/the-big-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17989","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17989"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17989\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18035,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17989\/revisions\/18035"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17989"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17989"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17989"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}