10-Year Treasury yields also breached support at 2.60%, warning of a further decline in long-term interest rates. A sign of increased risk aversion.<\/p>\n
Volatility on the S&P 500 has declined close to 1% but an upsurge in the next few weeks would warn of elevated risk. Breach of 2600 would indicate another test of primary support at 2350\/2400.<\/p>\n
We extend our sympathies to the victims of the shooting in Christchurch and their families. Our hope is that this atrocity will draw people together in support of each other rather than divide them.<\/p>\n
It has often been said that power corrupts. But it is perhaps equally important to realize that weakness, too, corrupts. Power corrupts the few, while weakness corrupts the many. Hatred, malice, rudeness, intolerance, and suspicion are the faults of weakness. The resentment of the weak does not spring from any injustice done to them but from their sense of inadequacy and impotence….
\n~ Eric Hoffer<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
We are now entering the blackout period when US corporates normally refrain from buying back stock, in the four to six-week period prior to their next earnings release. There is no outright ban on buybacks during that period but discretionary repurchases are restricted. Zerohedge illustrates the extent to which stock buybacks are currently driving the … <\/p>\n
Continue reading “S&P 500: Beware the buyback blackout”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,57,34],"tags":[70,3010,3249],"class_list":["post-17981","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-fixed-income","category-stock-markets","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-10-year-treasury-yields","tag-sp-500","tag-stock-buybacks"],"yoast_head":"\nS&P 500: Beware the buyback blackout - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"S&P 500: Beware the buyback blackout - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"We are now entering the blackout period when US corporates normally refrain from buying back stock, in the four to six-week period prior to their next earnings release. There is no outright ban on buybacks during that period but discretionary repurchases are restricted. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-4G1","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":17993,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/03\/22\/buybacks-interest-rates-and-declining-earnings-growth\/","url_meta":{"origin":17981,"position":0},"title":"Buybacks, interest rates and declining growth","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 22, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"The Fed did a sharp about-turn on interest rates this week: a majority of FOMC members now expect no rate increases this year. Long-term treasury yields are falling, with the 10-Year breaking support at 2.55\/2.60 percent. Expect a test of 2.0%. While the initial reaction of stocks was typically bullish,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Debt Levels"","block_context":{"text":"Debt Levels","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/debt-levels\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":13396,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/05\/25\/stock-buybacks-short-term-gain-long-term-pain\/","url_meta":{"origin":17981,"position":1},"title":"Stock buybacks: Short-term gain, long-term pain","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"May 25, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"Companies are maintaining stock buybacks and dividends payouts despite falling earnings. Combined buybacks and dividend payouts for S&P 500 corporations exceeded earnings by an estimated $572 billion for 2015. The chart below illustrates how stock buybacks, for S&P 500 stocks, have grown to exceed dividend payouts. The combined figure now\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500 Stock Buybacks and Dividends compared to Earnings","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-05-25-spx-buybacks.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-05-25-spx-buybacks.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-05-25-spx-buybacks.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":4792,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/07\/08\/sp-indices-sp-500-stock-buybacks-decrease-for-first-time-since-q2-2009\/","url_meta":{"origin":17981,"position":2},"title":"S&P 500 dividend yields signal oversold?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 8, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Historically the S&P 500 was considered overbought -- and ripe for a bear market -- when the dividend yield dropped below 3 percent. A surge in share buybacks in the past two decades, however, disrupted this relationship, with the dividend yield falling close to 1.0 percent in the Dotcom era.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Earnings & Dividends"","block_context":{"text":"Earnings & Dividends","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investing\/earnings-dividends\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":45076,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/11\/01\/debt-reduction-buybacks-and-sp-500-p-e-multiples\/","url_meta":{"origin":17981,"position":3},"title":"Debt reduction, buybacks and S&P 500 P\/E multiples","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 1, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"There is a rising trend -- especially in the telecommunications, utilities, and REITs sectors -- of selling off non-core assets and using the proceeds to reduce debt. Rising long-term interest rates are likely to accelerate this trend. Debt reduction reduces funds available for stock buybacks. This chart from S&P Dow\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500 Buybacks","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-10-31-spx-buybacks.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-10-31-spx-buybacks.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-10-31-spx-buybacks.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":18544,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/07\/13\/rate-cuts-and-buybacks-the-emperors-new-clothes\/","url_meta":{"origin":17981,"position":4},"title":"Rate cuts and buybacks – the emperor’s new clothes","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 13, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"The interest rate outlook is softening, with Fed chairman Jerome Powell hinting at rate cuts in his Wednesday testimony to Congress: \"Our baseline outlook is for economic growth to remain solid, labor markets to remain strong and inflation to move back over time.\" but.... \"Uncertainties about the outlook have increased\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":20491,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/05\/09\/sp-500\/","url_meta":{"origin":17981,"position":5},"title":"S&P 500: Watch Money Flow","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 9, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 index is headed for a test of resistance at 3000. Volatility remains at extreme levels and chances that this rally will fail are high. Earnings for S&P 500 stocks are forecast to fall by 40% when compared to the March quarter last year and 38% for the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17981","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17981"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17981\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17984,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17981\/revisions\/17984"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17981"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17981"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17981"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
![\"S&P](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-03-15-spx-buybacks.png?w=525&ssl=1\")
<\/p>\n![\"10-Year](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-03-15-tnx.png?w=525&ssl=1\")
<\/p>\n![\"S&P](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-03-15-spx.png?w=525&ssl=1\")
<\/p>\n