{"id":17979,"date":"2019-03-15T23:18:18","date_gmt":"2019-03-15T23:18:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=17979"},"modified":"2019-03-15T23:18:18","modified_gmt":"2019-03-15T23:18:18","slug":"china-slowdown","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/03\/15\/china-slowdown\/","title":{"rendered":"China slowdown"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Consumer durable sales are falling sharply:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">Offline sales value across all three categories declined by double digits. Air-conditioner sales slid 19% from a year earlier after dropping 18% in December. Refrigerator and washing machine sales fell 15% and 13%, moderating from declines of 23% and 21% in December.<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Screaming Buy (@LimDown) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/LimDown\/status\/1106055480668049408?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 14, 2019<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>And from <a href=\"https:\/\/mailchi.mp\/cbb89e2df0d4\/china-tip-sheet-march-15-a-two-session-wrap-up?e=20e5aadf66\">Trivium China<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Premier Li Keqiang reiterated that big stimulus isn\u2019t coming:<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAn indiscriminate approach may work in the short run but may lead to future problems.\u201d<br \/>\n\u201cThus, it\u2019s not a viable option.\u201d<br \/>\n\u201cOur choice is to energize market players.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>&#8230;.It&#8217;s a decidedly different tack than the credit-fueled stimulus of yesteryear, and the practical outcomes of this new policy response are two-fold:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Given that it\u2019s a new strategy, the transmission channels from policy to actual economic growth support are not well understood.<\/li>\n<li>The one thing we do know \u2013 this approach will take longer to impact the economy than the credit-driven responses of previous cycles.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The bottom line: It will take China\u2019s deceleration longer to bottom out than markets and businesses currently expect.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>China&#8217;s stated intention is to avoid big stimulus, so a policy reversal, if we see it, would signal that the slowdown is far worse than expected.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Consumer durable sales are falling sharply: Offline sales value across all three categories declined by double digits. Air-conditioner sales slid 19% from a year earlier after dropping 18% in December. Refrigerator and washing machine sales fell 15% and 13%, moderating from declines of 23% and 21% in December. \u2014 Screaming Buy (@LimDown) March 14, 2019 &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/03\/15\/china-slowdown\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;China slowdown&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[41,46,3761],"tags":[663,4022,3246],"class_list":["post-17979","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-china-hk","category-deficit-spending-employment","category-gdp-and-activity","tag-china","tag-consumer-durables","tag-stimulus"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>China slowdown - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"China slowdown - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Consumer durable sales are falling sharply: Offline sales value across all three categories declined by double digits. Air-conditioner sales slid 19% from a year earlier after dropping 18% in December. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-4FZ","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":57330,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/09\/05\/china-hits-minsky-iceberg-macrobusiness\/","url_meta":{"origin":17979,"position":0},"title":"China hits Minsky iceberg | Macrobusiness","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 5, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"From David Llewellyn-Smith at Macrobusiness: Stability leads to instability is China\u2019s problem. Central planning has for so long hit growth targets via stimulus that its economy is now a debt-saturated laggard that spends so much repaying interest on unproductive assets that it can\u2019t grow. Nowhere is this more obvious than\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"China: Local Government Refinancing","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-09-05-china-bondissues.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-09-05-china-bondissues.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-09-05-china-bondissues.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":15665,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/08\/04\/china-holds-its-head-above-water\/","url_meta":{"origin":17979,"position":1},"title":"China holds its head above water","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"August 4, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"A quick snapshot from the latest RBA chart pack. Manufacturing is holding its head above water (50 on the PMI chart) and industrial production shows a small upturn but investment growth is falling, as in many global economies including the US and Australia. Retail sales growth has declined but remains\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":22042,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/10\/17\/defying-gravity\/","url_meta":{"origin":17979,"position":2},"title":"Defying gravity","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 17, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Retail sales growth (excluding food) jumped to 8.2% for the 12 months ended September, completing a perfect V-shaped recovery. Hard to believe, when we consider that GDP growth was a dismal -9.0% in Q2 (Y\/Y) and Jim Stock's Weekly Economic Index is still at -3.91% for the week ending October\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":63223,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/26\/rate-cut-rebound-but-consumer-confidence-falls\/","url_meta":{"origin":17979,"position":3},"title":"Rate cut rebound but consumer confidence falls","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 26, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Retail sales dipped slightly in September, with no real improvement since 2021. The Conference Board Consumer Expectations Index is at a low of 63.2, warning of a recession. Stocks rallied, and the dollar weakened, on prospects of a December rate cut. We expect gold to test resistance at\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Advance Real Retail & Food Sales","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-25-realretail.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-25-realretail.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-25-realretail.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":61697,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/19\/ev-sales-grow-by-25\/","url_meta":{"origin":17979,"position":4},"title":"EV sales grow by 25%","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 19, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Summary According to the IEA, electric vehicle sales grew by 25% in 2024 China dominates EV sales and production Global electric vehicle sales grew by 3.5 million, reaching 17.3 million in 2024. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) Global EV Outlook 2025, electric vehicles now account for 20% of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Global EV Car Sales","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-19-global-ev-sales.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-19-global-ev-sales.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-19-global-ev-sales.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-19-global-ev-sales.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-19-global-ev-sales.png?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":5245,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/08\/13\/slower-growth-in-asia-brings-down-stocks-nytimes-com\/","url_meta":{"origin":17979,"position":5},"title":"Slower Growth in Asia Brings Down Stocks &#8211; NYTimes.com","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 13, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS Published: August 13, 2012 Stocks fell Monday as evidence piled up that the global economic slowdown was hurting Asia. Japan\u2019s economy grew in the second quarter at a 1.4 percent annual rate, slower than many analysts had expected. Last week, China released dismal figures on retail\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17979","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17979"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17979\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17980,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17979\/revisions\/17980"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17979"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17979"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17979"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}