{"id":17973,"date":"2019-03-14T00:09:17","date_gmt":"2019-03-14T00:09:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=17973"},"modified":"2019-03-14T01:06:11","modified_gmt":"2019-03-14T01:06:11","slug":"aussie-banks-get-a-wake-up-call-from-across-the-tasman","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/03\/14\/aussie-banks-get-a-wake-up-call-from-across-the-tasman\/","title":{"rendered":"Aussie banks get a wake up call from across the Tasman"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>I have long called for Australian banks to increase their equity capital in order to withstand a potential banking crisis in Australia. The Murray Commission found that banks, in a crisis, would act as &#8220;an accelerant rather than a shockabsorber&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p>Now the RBNZ has announced plans to force the big four banks to hold more capital in their New Zealand banking operations. From Clancy Yeates at the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.smh.com.au\/business\/banking-and-finance\/aussie-banks-can-afford-12-billion-kiwi-safety-net-says-rbnz-20190313-p513r7.html\">Sydney Morning Herald<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has mounted a firm defence of its plan to force Australia&#8217;s major banks to hold $NZ12.5 billion ($A12.12 billion) more in capital in their banking operations across the Tasman, saying the &#8220;highly profitable&#8221; businesses would have to accept lower returns.<\/p>\n<p>In an interview on Wednesday, RBNZ deputy governor Geoff Bascand also justified the plan to bolster bank balance sheets by emphasising the social costs of banking crises and arguing New Zealand could not rely on Australian parent companies for a bail-out in severe shock.<\/p>\n<p>&#8230;&#8230;The big four Australian banks made $4.4 billion in cash profits from their New Zealand operations in 2018 representing about 15 per cent of their total combined profit with ANZ tipped to experience the most significant hit.<\/p>\n<p>Mr Bascand said the central bank had estimated the big four&#8217;s NZ return on equity, until recently 14 to 15 per cent, would decline by between and 1 and 3 percentage points as a result of the change.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Earlier, Bascand said:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;At one time, the owners of a bank had plenty of skin in the game; in fact, there was a time when banks got most, or all, of their money from their owners. However, over the last century, banks have started to use less of their own money and more of other people\u2019s, and the balance has almost entirely reversed. While we are not attempting to turn back the clock &#8230;..We believe that more \u2018skin in the game\u2019 for banks will result in:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Banks being better able to absorb large, unexpected losses<\/li>\n<li>Society being less at risk from banking crises<\/li>\n<li>Reduced fiscal risk&#8230;..As the global financial crisis illustrated, when banks fail there can be a severe domino effect that puts pressure on governments to step in with financial support<\/li>\n<li>Bank shareholders and management being less inclined to take excessive risks&#8221;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>(Gareth Vaughan, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interest.co.nz\/banking\/98316\/rbnz-deputy-governor-geoff-bascand-says-banks-get-about-92-their-money-borrowing-it\">Interest.co.nz<\/a>)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>The RBNZ proposal calls for systemically important banks to hold a minimum of 16% Tier 1 capital against risk-weighted assets, of which 6% would be a regulatory minimum and 10% would act as a counter-cyclical buffer to absorb losses without triggering &#8220;resolution or failure options&#8221;. Bear in mind that risk-weighting significantly understates total assets and that leverage ratios, reflecting un-weighted assets, are about 55% of the above (i.e. 8.8%).<\/p>\n<p>The banks have protested, warning that increasing capital will raise interest rates to borrowers.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8230;..The RBNZ has acknowledged interest rates charged by banks will probably rise as a result of the change, but Mr Bascand said it estimated the impact would be about half a standard 0.25 percentage point move in official interest rates.<\/p>\n<p>If banks&#8217; borrowing rates did rise more sharply than expected, he said the RBNZ could offset this through monetary policy&#8230;..<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>What the banks failed to consider (or mention) is that investors are prepared to accept lower returns on equity if there is lower associated risk. Also banks with strong balance sheets have historically experienced stronger growth. Both lower risk and stronger growth would help mitigate the costs of additional capital.<\/p>\n<p>Question is, why are RBNZ raising concerns about bank capital and not APRA? Another case of regulatory capture?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I have long called for Australian banks to increase their equity capital in order to withstand a potential banking crisis in Australia. The Murray Commission found that banks, in a crisis, would act as &#8220;an accelerant rather than a shockabsorber&#8221;. Now the RBNZ has announced plans to force the big four banks to hold more &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/03\/14\/aussie-banks-get-a-wake-up-call-from-across-the-tasman\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Aussie banks get a wake up call from across the Tasman&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,31],"tags":[214,348,4021,4020,2090,2973],"class_list":["post-17973","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","tag-apra","tag-bank-capital-ratios","tag-banks-rbnz","tag-big-four","tag-leverage-ratio","tag-risk-weighted-assets"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Aussie banks get a wake up call from across the Tasman - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Aussie banks get a wake up call from across the Tasman - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"I have long called for Australian banks to increase their equity capital in order to withstand a potential banking crisis in Australia. The Murray Commission found that banks, in a crisis, would act as &#8220;an accelerant rather than a shockabsorber&#8221;. Now the RBNZ has announced plans to force the big four banks to hold more &hellip; Continue reading &quot;Aussie banks get a wake up call from across the Tasman&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/03\/14\/aussie-banks-get-a-wake-up-call-from-across-the-tasman\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-03-14T00:09:17+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2019-03-14T01:06:11+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/03\\\/14\\\/aussie-banks-get-a-wake-up-call-from-across-the-tasman\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/03\\\/14\\\/aussie-banks-get-a-wake-up-call-from-across-the-tasman\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"Aussie banks get a wake up call from across the Tasman\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-03-14T00:09:17+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2019-03-14T01:06:11+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/03\\\/14\\\/aussie-banks-get-a-wake-up-call-from-across-the-tasman\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":594,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#organization\"},\"keywords\":[\"APRA\",\"bank capital ratios\",\"banks RBNZ\",\"Big Four\",\"leverage ratio\",\"risk-weighted assets\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Australia &amp; NZ\",\"Banks &amp; Interest Rates\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/03\\\/14\\\/aussie-banks-get-a-wake-up-call-from-across-the-tasman\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/03\\\/14\\\/aussie-banks-get-a-wake-up-call-from-across-the-tasman\\\/\",\"name\":\"Aussie banks get a wake up call from across the Tasman - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2019-03-14T00:09:17+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2019-03-14T01:06:11+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/03\\\/14\\\/aussie-banks-get-a-wake-up-call-from-across-the-tasman\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/03\\\/14\\\/aussie-banks-get-a-wake-up-call-from-across-the-tasman\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/03\\\/14\\\/aussie-banks-get-a-wake-up-call-from-across-the-tasman\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Aussie banks get a wake up call from across the Tasman\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\\\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-4FT","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":7281,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/03\/25\/rbnz-steps-closer-to-macroprudential-macrobusiness\/","url_meta":{"origin":17973,"position":0},"title":"RBNZ steps closer to macroprudential | MacroBusiness","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"March 25, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Houses & Holes at Macrobusiness reports on macroprudential steps being considered by the RBNZ. Macroprudential regulation\u00a0are measures aimed to mitigate the risk of the financial system as a whole, or systemic risk, as opposed to the risk to individual participants. The [Reserve Bank of New Zealand] says it wants to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":19471,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/22\/commonwealth-bank-of-australia-cba\/","url_meta":{"origin":17973,"position":1},"title":"Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA)","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 22, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Stock: Commonwealth Bank of Australia Exchange: ASX Symbol: CBA Date: November 22, 2019 Latest price: $79.33 AUD Market Cap: $140.4 bn Fair Value Estimate: $62.75 Forward P\/E: 16.45 Fair Value Payback: 12 Years Financial Y\/E: 30 September Recommendation: Hold Sector: Finance Industry: Major Banks Investment Theme: Dividends & Growth Structural\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australian Growth&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australian Growth","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investment-allocation\/asx-growth\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":19468,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/21\/westpac-banking-corp-wbc\/","url_meta":{"origin":17973,"position":2},"title":"Westpac Banking Corp (WBC)","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 21, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Stock: Westpac Banking Corp Exchange: ASX Symbol: WBC Date: November 21, 2019 Latest price: $25.16 AUD Market Cap: $87.8 bn Fair Value Estimate: $24.10 Forward P\/E: 13.04 Fair Value Payback: 12 Years Financial Y\/E: 30 September Recommendation: Hold Sector: Finance Industry: Major Banks Investment Theme: Dividends & Growth Structural Trends:\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australian Growth&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australian Growth","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investment-allocation\/asx-growth\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":19491,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/27\/national-australia-bank-nab\/","url_meta":{"origin":17973,"position":3},"title":"National Australia Bank (NAB)","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 27, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Stock: National Australia Bank Exchange: ASX Symbol: NAB Date: November 27, 2019 Latest price: $26.18 AUD Market Cap: $75.4 bn Fair Value Estimate: $24.70 Forward P\/E: 12.5 Fair Value Payback: 12 Years Financial Y\/E: 30 September Recommendation: Hold Sector: Finance Industry: Major Banks Investment Theme: Dividends & Growth Structural Trends:\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australian Growth&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australian Growth","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investment-allocation\/asx-growth\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":19379,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/14\/australia-major-banks\/","url_meta":{"origin":17973,"position":4},"title":"Australia: Major banks","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 14, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Summary Our review of APRA's June 2019 quarterly report on the four major banks -- Commonwealth, Westpac, ANZ and NAB -- concludes that they are collectively priced at a 16.5% premium over fair value. Technically, the ASX 300 Banks Index ($XBAK) is experiencing secondary selling pressure and a correction is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":20584,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/05\/25\/commonwealth-bank-cba\/","url_meta":{"origin":17973,"position":5},"title":"Commonwealth Bank (CBA)","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 25, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Stock: Commonwealth Bank of Australia Exchange: ASX Symbol: CBA Date: May 25, 2020 Latest price: $58.99 AUD Market Cap: $104.4 bn Fair Value Estimate: $50.11 Forward P\/E: 14.5 Fair Value Payback: 12 Years Financial Y\/E: 30 September Recommendation: Hold Sector: Finance Industry: Major Banks Investment Theme: Dividends & Growth Structural\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australian Growth&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australian Growth","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investment-allocation\/asx-growth\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17973","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17973"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17973\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17978,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17973\/revisions\/17978"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17973"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17973"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17973"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}