{"id":17961,"date":"2019-03-09T01:14:30","date_gmt":"2019-03-09T01:14:30","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=17961"},"modified":"2019-03-09T01:14:30","modified_gmt":"2019-03-09T01:14:30","slug":"sp-500-optimism-fades","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/03\/09\/sp-500-optimism-fades\/","title":{"rendered":"S&P 500 optimism fades"},"content":{"rendered":"

10-Year Treasury yields are testing support at 2.60%. Breach of support would warn of a further decline in long-term interest rates. Declining yields reflect the outflow of funds from stocks and into safer fixed-interest investments.<\/p>\n

\"10-Year<\/p>\n

Volatility on the S&P 500 has fallen close to 1% but a correction from here would be likely to form a trough above the 1% level, warning of elevated risk. Breach of 2600 would indicate another test of primary support at 2350\/2400.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

Average hourly wages, total private, grew at 3.4% over the last 12 months, while production & non-supervisory wages grew at 3.48%. This keeps pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates as underlying inflationary pressures grow. The dampening effect of the trade dispute with China may have bought the Fed more time but a spike above 3.5% would be difficult to ignore.<\/p>\n

\"Average<\/p>\n

Impact of the trade dispute is more clearly visible on the chart below, with growth in total hours worked retreating below 1.5%. Slowing growth in hours worked warns that real GDP growth for Q1 2019 is likely to disappoint.<\/p>\n

\"Real<\/p>\n

China Trade Talks<\/h3>\n

US-China trade talks have made little in the way of real progress.<\/p>\n

BEIJING\u2014The U.S. and China have yet to set a date for a summit to resolve their trade dispute, the U.S. ambassador to China said Friday, as neither side feels an agreement is imminent. (Wall St Journal<\/a>)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

There is opposition to concessions on both sides:<\/p>\n

China has a secret program to support the microchip and software industries. That’s according to Wang Jiangping, Vice Minister of Industry and Information Technology. Wang was speaking to CPPCC delegates at the Two sessions on Thursday, but the comments leaked to reporters (FX678):<\/p>\n

“Last year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology planned the ‘Zhengxin Zhuhun’ project under the leadership of the Party Central Committee and the State Council.”
\n“The state will give strong policy and funding support, because industries such as microchips and software need to be iteratively developed.”<\/p>\n

Wang said the ministry had kept the policy under wraps. That’s presumably because of the recent international backlash to the Made in China 2025 program…..Wang’s comments have already disappeared from the Chinese internet.<\/p>\n

Get smart: Given Xi’s self-reliance push in key technologies, nobody really thought China would give up its industrial policies for these sectors. (Trivium China<\/a>)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Whoever leaked Wang’s comments was not trying to make trade negotiations any easier. Impact of the trade dispute is starting to emerge in both economies but resolution and enforcement of a trade agreement is a long and tenuous path.<\/p>\n

Hope is an expensive commodity. It makes better sense to be prepared.<\/p>\n

~ Thucydides (460 – 400 B.C.)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10-Year Treasury yields are testing support at 2.60%. Breach of support would warn of a further decline in long-term interest rates. Declining yields reflect the outflow of funds from stocks and into safer fixed-interest investments. Volatility on the S&P 500 has fallen close to 1% but a correction from here would be likely to form … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “S&P 500 optimism fades”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[41,3778,57,34],"tags":[70,1723,3010,3631],"class_list":["post-17961","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-china-hk","category-international-trade","category-stock-markets","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-10-year-treasury-yields","tag-hours-worked","tag-sp-500","tag-wages-growth"],"yoast_head":"\nS&P 500 optimism fades - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"S&P 500 optimism fades - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"10-Year Treasury yields are testing support at 2.60%. Breach of support would warn of a further decline in long-term interest rates. Declining yields reflect the outflow of funds from stocks and into safer fixed-interest investments. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-4FH","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":17014,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/09\/08\/east-to-west-bonds-tariffs-hurt-crude-prices-and-developing-markets\/","url_meta":{"origin":17961,"position":0},"title":"East to West: Bonds & tariffs hurt developing markets and crude prices","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 8, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"10-Year Treasury yields are consolidating in a triangle below long-term resistance at 3.00 percent. Breakout above 3.00 would signal a primary advance, ending the decades-long bull market in bonds. This would have a heavy impact on developing economies, including China, with a stronger Dollar forcing higher interest rates. A Trend\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":7396,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/04\/03\/sp-500-and-10-year-treasury-yields\/","url_meta":{"origin":17961,"position":1},"title":"S&P 500 and 10-year Treasury yields","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"April 3, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"The yield on 10-year Treasury Notes retreated below 2.00%. Falling bond yields indicate the expected time horizon for low short-term interest rates is lengthening -- a negative reflection on the economy. The first line of support for $TNX is 1.70%; breach would signal another attempt at 1.40%. Bullish divergence on\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":27703,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/09\/03\/strong-wages-growth-lifts-gold-silver\/","url_meta":{"origin":17961,"position":2},"title":"Strong wages growth lifts Gold & Silver","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 3, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Hourly earnings grew at a rate of 4.8% over the 12 months ended August, compared to 5.3% for CPI in July. Growth is accelerating, with a rate of 0.54% for hourly earnings in August and 3.1% over the last 6 months both reflecting an annualized rate above 6.0%. Wage increases\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":18333,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/06\/08\/sp-500-short-term-versus-long-run\/","url_meta":{"origin":17961,"position":3},"title":"S&P 500: Short-term versus long run","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 8, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"The market is excited at the prospect of Fed rate cuts (in response to the US-CCP trade war), with the S&P 500 headed for another test of its earlier high at 2950. A Trend Index trough above zero indicates short-term buying pressure. Falling bond yields, however, warn of a flight\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":56203,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/08\/02\/plunging-treasury-yields-lift-gold-but-stocks-fall\/","url_meta":{"origin":17961,"position":4},"title":"Plunging Treasury yields lift gold but stocks fall","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 2, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Ten-year Treasury yields broke support at 4.0%, plunging in anticipation of Fed rate cuts in September. Expect retracement to test resistance at 4.0% but respect is likely to confirm our medium-term target of 3.8%. Stocks Falling yields failed to lift stocks, with the S&P 500 testing support at 5400. Declining\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-01-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-01-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-01-tnx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":19036,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/10\/gold-low-interest-rates-and-volatile-currencies\/","url_meta":{"origin":17961,"position":5},"title":"Gold, low interest rates and volatile currencies","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 10, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Gold is in a primary up-trend, after ranging sideways for several years, fueled by low interest rates and volatile currency markets. The chart below highlights the inverse relationship between gold and 10-year Treasury yields. When LT interest rates fall, the gold price surges. At present, 10-year Treasury yields are close\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17961","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17961"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17961\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17962,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17961\/revisions\/17962"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17961"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17961"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17961"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}