{"id":17939,"date":"2019-03-02T01:35:03","date_gmt":"2019-03-02T01:35:03","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=17939"},"modified":"2019-03-02T01:42:14","modified_gmt":"2019-03-02T01:42:14","slug":"gdp-up-but-etf-flows-bearish","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/03\/02\/gdp-up-but-etf-flows-bearish\/","title":{"rendered":"GDP up but ETF flows bearish"},"content":{"rendered":"

Real US GDP grew a healthy 3.1% in Q4 2018. Rising hours worked point to further gains in the new year.<\/p>\n

\"Real<\/p>\n

10-Year Treasury yields rallied slightly but only breakout above 2.80% would hint at a reversal in the down-trend, while breach of 2.60% would warn of further weakness. Inflows into Treasuries normally coincide with outflows from stocks, indicating a bearish outlook.<\/p>\n

\"10-Year<\/p>\n

According to etf.com<\/a>, US equities have seen $21.2 billion of ETF outflows YTD, while fixed income recorded $16.5 billion of inflows. The market remains risk-averse.<\/p>\n

The S&P 500 continues to test resistance at 2800. Bearish divergence on 13-week Momentum (below) often precedes a market top. Another lower peak would reinforce the signal.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

A correction in March is likely, possibly on conclusion of US trade talks with China. Breach of 2600 would signal another test of primary support at 2350\/2400.<\/p>\n

“President Donald Trump said on Monday that he may soon sign a deal with Chinese leader Xi Jinping to end the countries\u2019 trade war, if the two sides can bridge remaining differences.<\/p>\n

But the lead U.S. negotiator said on Wednesday it was too early to predict the outcome. U.S. issues with China are ‘too serious’ to be resolved with promises from Beijing to purchase more U.S. goods and any agreement must include a way to ensure commitments are met, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said.” (Reuters<\/a>)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

We are in a bear market that is likely to continue for the foreseeable future. The strength of the next correction will confirm or refute this.<\/p>\n

Right, as the world goes, is only in question between equals in power, while the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.<\/p>\n

~ Thucydides (460 – 400 B.C.)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Real US GDP grew a healthy 3.1% in Q4 2018. Rising hours worked point to further gains in the new year. 10-Year Treasury yields rallied slightly but only breakout above 2.80% would hint at a reversal in the down-trend, while breach of 2.60% would warn of further weakness. Inflows into Treasuries normally coincide with outflows … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “GDP up but ETF flows bearish”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[41,3761,57,34],"tags":[70,4012,2870,3010,4013],"class_list":["post-17939","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-china-hk","category-gdp-and-activity","category-stock-markets","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-10-year-treasury-yields","tag-etf-flows","tag-real-gdp","tag-sp-500","tag-us-china-trade-talks"],"yoast_head":"\nGDP up but ETF flows bearish - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"GDP up but ETF flows bearish - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Real US GDP grew a healthy 3.1% in Q4 2018. Rising hours worked point to further gains in the new year. 10-Year Treasury yields rallied slightly but only breakout above 2.80% would hint at a reversal in the down-trend, while breach of 2.60% would warn of further weakness. 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ETF flows reveal risk-averse investors, with outflows from US Equities in the last week and a relatively much larger outflow from Leveraged ETFs.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":46393,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/12\/14\/dovish-fed-dollar-falls-gold-climbs\/","url_meta":{"origin":17939,"position":1},"title":"Dovish Fed, Dollar falls, Gold climbs","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 14, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Long-term Treasury yields plunged in response to a dovish Fed meeting which kept rates on hold, with a target range of 5.25% - 5.00%. Ten-year Treasury yields are now testing our target at 4.0%. Declining inflation and signs of labor market easing moved the FOMC to discard the additional rate\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-12-14-10y-666x451.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-12-14-10y-666x451.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-12-14-10y-666x451.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":24540,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/03\/13\/gold-not-done-yet\/","url_meta":{"origin":17939,"position":2},"title":"Gold not done yet","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 13, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Gold found support at $1700\/ounce but we need follow-through above $1750 to confirm another test of the upper trend channel. Treasury Yields 10-Year Treasury yields jumped on Friday despite a fairly sedate 10-Year auction earlier in the week. Primary dealers may be growing nervous about the SLR exclusion which expires\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Gold & Precious Metals"","block_context":{"text":"Gold & Precious Metals","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/gold-precious-metals\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":61412,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/24\/stocks-hesitate-despite-rising-liquidity\/","url_meta":{"origin":17939,"position":3},"title":"Stocks hesitate despite rising liquidity","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 24, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"A fresh injection of liquidity supports stocks, but a strong uptrend in gold and rising inflation in Japan warn of upward pressure on US Treasury yields. Gold retraced to $3,020 per ounce, while silver tests support at $33 per ounce, but both remain in a strong uptrend. The S&P 500\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-21-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-21-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-21-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":27463,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/08\/19\/sp-500-sales-earnings-capital-flows\/","url_meta":{"origin":17939,"position":4},"title":"S&P 500 sales, earnings & capital flows","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 19, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 is trading at a forward PE of 23.35, higher than any previous reading in the past 120 years except for the Dotcom bubble. Forward estimates of earnings are from S&P Dow Jones Indices. Historic PE, based on highest trailing earnings (PEmax), has eased to 25.76. Again, higher\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":61955,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/06\/13\/dollar-warns-of-tipping-point\/","url_meta":{"origin":17939,"position":5},"title":"Dollar warns of tipping point","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 13, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Summary The dollar is weakening due to capital outflows from the US Long-term Treasury yields are declining in anticipation of Fed rate cuts However, capital outflows are expected to lift long-term rates and slow economic growth in the years ahead The weaker dollar is expected to depress stock prices and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Dollar Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-12-dxy.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-12-dxy.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-12-dxy.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17939","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17939"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17939\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17940,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17939\/revisions\/17940"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17939"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17939"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17939"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}