{"id":17888,"date":"2019-02-16T01:08:27","date_gmt":"2019-02-16T01:08:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=17888"},"modified":"2019-02-16T01:08:27","modified_gmt":"2019-02-16T01:08:27","slug":"retail-sales-fall-while-trade-talks-stall","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/02\/16\/retail-sales-fall-while-trade-talks-stall\/","title":{"rendered":"Retail sales fall while trade talks stall"},"content":{"rendered":"

Retail sales<\/h2>\n

Retail sales growth (USA advance retail sales excluding autos and parts) fell sharply in December, indicating that consumer confidence is fading despite strong employment figures.<\/p>\n

\"Advance<\/p>\n

The decline in consumer confidence also shows in lower January 2019 light vehicle sales.<\/p>\n

\"Light<\/p>\n

Trade talks make little progress<\/h2>\n

Trivium<\/a> provide a useful update on US-China trade negotiations:<\/p>\n

The latest round of trade talks with the US are finishing up as we go to press. There hasn’t been much progress (Bloomberg): “As of Friday afternoon, there had been no visible progress on efforts to narrow the gap around structural reforms to China\u2019s economy that the U.S. has requested, according to three U.S. and Chinese officials who asked not to be identified because the talks were private……<\/em>Chinese officials are angry about what they see as US efforts to undermine their state-led economy.\u201d <\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

These are issues that will take generations to resolve. The chance of a quick fix is highly unlikely.<\/p>\n

Stocks<\/h2>\n

The stock market continues to rally on the back of a solid earnings season.<\/p>\n

Of the 216 issues (505 in the S&P 500 index) with full operating comparative data 154 (71.3%) beat, 51 (23.6%) missed, and 11 met their estimates; 135 of 215 (62.8%) beat on sales. (S&P Dow Jones Indices<\/a>)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Index volatility remains high, however, and a 21-day Volatility trough above 1.0% would warn of a bear market. S&P 500 retreat below 2600 would reinforce the signal.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

Crude prices continue to warn of a fall in global demand.<\/p>\n

\"Light<\/p>\n

As do commodity prices.<\/p>\n

\"DJ-UBS<\/p>\n

10-Year Treasury yields are testing support at 2.50% and a Trend Index peak below zero warns of buying pressure from investors seeking safety (yields fall as prices rise).<\/p>\n

\"10-Year<\/p>\n

The Nasdaq 100 shows rising Money Flow but I believe this is secondary in nature. The next correction is likely to provide a clearer picture.<\/p>\n

\"Nasdaq<\/p>\n

My conclusion is the same as last week. This is a bear market. Recovery hinges on an unlikely resolution of the US-China ‘trade dispute’.<\/p>\n

Concessions to adversaries only end in self reproach, and the more strictly they are avoided the greater will be the chance of security.<\/p>\n

~ Thucydides (460 – 400 B.C.)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Retail sales Retail sales growth (USA advance retail sales excluding autos and parts) fell sharply in December, indicating that consumer confidence is fading despite strong employment figures. The decline in consumer confidence also shows in lower January 2019 light vehicle sales. Trade talks make little progress Trivium provide a useful update on US-China trade negotiations: … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Retail sales fall while trade talks stall”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[41,43,44,3761,57,29,34],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17888","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-china-hk","category-commodities-gold-commodities","category-crude-oil-natural-gas","category-gdp-and-activity","category-stock-markets","category-the-big-picture","category-us-canada-countries-regions"],"yoast_head":"\nRetail sales fall while trade talks stall - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Retail sales fall while trade talks stall - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Retail sales Retail sales growth (USA advance retail sales excluding autos and parts) fell sharply in December, indicating that consumer confidence is fading despite strong employment figures. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-4Ew","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":18732,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/08\/24\/sp-500-hope-is-not-a-strategy\/","url_meta":{"origin":17888,"position":0},"title":"Hope is not a strategy","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 24, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Bob Doll's outlook this week at Nuveen Investments is less bearish than my own: Trade-related risks seem to be growing. President Trump looks to be holding out hope that the U.S. economy will stay resilient in the face of escalating tariffs and rising tensions. So far, the U.S. economy has\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":60730,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/02\/04\/australian-headwinds\/","url_meta":{"origin":17888,"position":1},"title":"Australian headwinds","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 4, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Australia faces headwinds if there is a US-China trade war. China is our biggest trading partner; iron ore and coal exports will likely suffer. The ASX 200 is testing support at 8350, showing a \"dead cat bounce\" after tariffs on Canada and Mexico were postponed for 30 days. That is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"ASX 200 Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-02-04-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-02-04-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-02-04-xjo.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13311,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/05\/15\/retail-sales-lift\/","url_meta":{"origin":17888,"position":2},"title":"Retail sales lift","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"May 15, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"Retail sales (excluding motor vehicles and fuel) jumped to a 2.96% year-on-year increase for April 2016, climbing back above Core CPI to reflect a real increase. We are still waiting on light vehicle sales for April. An upturn would indicate reviving consumer confidence in the economy. An upturn in business\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":19018,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/03\/the-cost-of-uncertainty\/","url_meta":{"origin":17888,"position":3},"title":"The high cost of uncertainty","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 3, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"High levels of uncertainty in international trade, geopolitical outlook, and domestic politics in the USA are likely to have a domino effect on business and consumer confidence. Business is likely to postpone or curtail new investment decisions. This is already evident in a down-turn in new capital formation, along with\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":27446,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/08\/18\/why-worry-about-falling-consumer-confidence-retail-sales\/","url_meta":{"origin":17888,"position":4},"title":"Why worry about falling consumer confidence & retail sales?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 18, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Year-on-year growth in retail sales (excluding food) declined to 13.6% in July. Actual values (in gray on the graph below) show sales of $545 billion, still well above the $481 billion in July last year and $460 billion in February, prior to the pandemic. Retail sales excluding motor vehicles and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Deficit Spending & Employment"","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending & Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":37070,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/09\/06\/australia-more-rate-hikes-ahead\/","url_meta":{"origin":17888,"position":5},"title":"Australia: More rate hikes ahead","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 6, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The RBA hiked its target for the cash rate by 50 basis points today, to 2.35%, offering the following justification: .....Inflation in Australia is the highest it has been since the early 1990s and is expected to increase further over the months ahead. Global factors explain much of the increase\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Australia: CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-09-06-aus-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17888","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17888"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17888\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17889,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17888\/revisions\/17889"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17888"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17888"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17888"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}