{"id":17870,"date":"2019-02-12T23:09:35","date_gmt":"2019-02-12T23:09:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=17870"},"modified":"2019-02-12T23:41:11","modified_gmt":"2019-02-12T23:41:11","slug":"apple-inc-aapl","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/02\/12\/apple-inc-aapl\/","title":{"rendered":"Apple Inc. (AAPL)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Apple (AAPL) is a notable omission in my international model portfolio. There are several reasons.<\/p>\n<p>First, sales growth has been declining for several years.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-02-11-aapl-revenue.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Apple Revenue Growth (AAPL)\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Second, Apple is vulnerable if there is a US-China trade war. Greater China represents almost 25% of projected sales and imposition of tariffs or other trade barriers could hurt Apple. But, even without trade barriers, sales in China are already slowing.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;While we anticipated some challenges in key emerging markets, we did not foresee the magnitude of the economic deceleration, particularly in Greater China. In fact, most of our revenue shortfall to our guidance, and over 100 percent of our year-over-year worldwide revenue decline, occurred in Greater China across iPhone, Mac and iPad&#8230;&#8221; (Tim Cook, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.apple.com\/newsroom\/2019\/01\/letter-from-tim-cook-to-apple-investors\/\">January 2 letter to shareholders<\/a>)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Third, Apple is losing market share in China as local smartphone technology improves. From <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/apple-revises-guidance-sees-lower-revenue-in-fiscal-1st-quarter-11546465050\">The Wall Street Journal<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Apple&#8217;s share of the Chinese smartphone market has been shrinking, crowded out by tech giants such as China&#8217;s Huawei Technologies Co. that market increasingly sophisticated phones at a lower price tag.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Apple&#8217;s share of the Chinese smartphone market contracted to 7.8% in the first three quarters of 2018 from a peak in 2015 of 12.5%, according to Canalys, a market research firm.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Fourth, Apple is testing primary support at $150 on the long-term chart. Bearish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure; a peak at zero would strengthen the signal. Respect of resistance at $180 would also be bearish, while breach of support at $150 would confirm a primary down-trend.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-02-11-aapl.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Apple (AAPL)\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Last, Apple is trading at a Consensus Forward P\/E of 14.8 (Morningstar, February 12, 2019) which equates to an estimated <a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/02\/08\/price-earnings-versus-growth\/\">LT growth rate of 10% at 12.5% p.a. rate of return<\/a>. Given the current sales outlook, that seems optimistic.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Apple (AAPL) is a notable omission in my international model portfolio. There are several reasons. First, sales growth has been declining for several years. Second, Apple is vulnerable if there is a US-China trade war. Greater China represents almost 25% of projected sales and imposition of tariffs or other trade barriers could hurt Apple. But, &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/02\/12\/apple-inc-aapl\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Apple Inc. (AAPL)&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3803],"tags":[107,4002],"class_list":["post-17870","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-international-growth","tag-aapl","tag-apple-inc"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Apple Inc. (AAPL) - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Apple Inc. (AAPL) - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Apple (AAPL) is a notable omission in my international model portfolio. There are several reasons. First, sales growth has been declining for several years. Second, Apple is vulnerable if there is a US-China trade war. Greater China represents almost 25% of projected sales and imposition of tariffs or other trade barriers could hurt Apple. But, &hellip; Continue reading &quot;Apple Inc. (AAPL)&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/02\/12\/apple-inc-aapl\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-02-12T23:09:35+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2019-02-12T23:41:11+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/static.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-02-11-aapl-revenue.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/02\\\/12\\\/apple-inc-aapl\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/02\\\/12\\\/apple-inc-aapl\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"Apple Inc. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\\\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/facebook.com\\\/people\\\/The-Patient-Investor\\\/61572934660810\\\/\",\"https:\\\/\\\/www.instagram.com\\\/colin_thepatientinvestor\",\"https:\\\/\\\/au.linkedin.com\\\/in\\\/colintwiggs\"],\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/author\\\/investor\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Apple Inc. 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(AAPL) &#8211; window dressing with buybacks","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 1, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Apple (AAPL) is a notable omission in my international model portfolio. Here is one of the reasons. Michael Santoli at CNBC reports that Apple's sales and earnings over the past 4 years are essentially flat. The only metric that has improved is earnings per share (EPS) because of stock buybacks.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;International Growth&quot;","block_context":{"text":"International Growth","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investment-allocation\/international-growth\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":61472,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/04\/03\/tariff-shock-causes-stock-plunge-in-after-hours-trading\/","url_meta":{"origin":17870,"position":2},"title":"Tariff shock: Stocks plunge in after-hours trading","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 3, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"President Donald Trump announced an across-the-board 10% tariff on US imports, with higher tariffs on trading partners who have reciprocal barriers to free trade. The table below from Reuters sets out the new reciprocal tariffs for major partners: Countries that enjoy large trade surpluses have been singled out for higher\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"US New Import Tariffs","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-04-02-us-tariffs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":22796,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/11\/23\/epic-v-apple-aapl\/","url_meta":{"origin":17870,"position":3},"title":"Epic v. Apple (AAPL)","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 23, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"If Fortnite-maker Epic Games' Australian legal challenge against Apple is successful, the tech giant may be forced to loosen its grip on its valuable mobile app ecosystem, with Epic arguing that competition law obliges Apple to allow rival stores and payment processing mechanisms on its devices. Currently, the Apple-controlled App\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;International Growth&quot;","block_context":{"text":"International Growth","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investment-allocation\/international-growth\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"ACCC: Rod Sims","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2020\/rod-sims.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":19788,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/02\/14\/a-worm-in-the-apple\/","url_meta":{"origin":17870,"position":4},"title":"A worm in the Apple","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 14, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Apple Inc (AAPL) enjoyed stellar growth over the past 12 months, jumping more than 50%. But is that due to solid operating performance or window-dressing, with almost $140 billion of stock buybacks in the last two years? Free cash flow \u2014 operating cash flow less stock compensation and investment in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17724,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/01\/11\/its-a-funny-kind-of-bear-market\/","url_meta":{"origin":17870,"position":5},"title":"It&#8217;s a funny kind of bear market","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 11, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"The US economy continues to show signs of robust good health. Total hours worked are rising, signaling healthy real GDP growth. Growth in average hourly wage rates is rising, reflecting a tighter labor market. Underlying inflationary pressures may be rising but the Fed seems comfortable that this is containable. 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