{"id":17860,"date":"2019-02-08T11:38:47","date_gmt":"2019-02-08T11:38:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=17860"},"modified":"2019-02-08T11:38:47","modified_gmt":"2019-02-08T11:38:47","slug":"more-signs-of-risk-avoidance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/02\/08\/more-signs-of-risk-avoidance\/","title":{"rendered":"More signs of risk avoidance"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote><p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2019-02-06\/asia-eyes-muted-start-for-stocks-dollar-advances-markets-wrap\">Bloomberg<\/a>: &#8220;U.S. stocks slid as investors grew anxious that the Trump administration won\u2019t reach a trade deal with China before a March deadline for escalating the war. Treasuries surged.<\/p>\n<p>The post-Christmas rally that added 16 percent to the S&amp;P 500 came under increasing pressure amid reports the two trading partners remained far apart on a deal and that the nations\u2019 presidents won\u2019t meet before higher tariffs are slated to take effect on Chinese goods next month.&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>S&amp;P 500 volatility remains high. If the rally runs out of steam, a large Twiggs Volatility (21-day) trough above 1.0% would signal a bear market. Retreat below 2600 would reinforce the signal.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-02-09-spx.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Crude prices retreated below resistance at $54\/$55 per barrel, on fears of falling global (mainly Chinese) demand. Another test of primary support at $42\/barrel is likely.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-02-09-crude.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Light Crude\" \/><\/p>\n<p>10-Year Treasury yields retreated to 2.65%. A Trend Index peak below zero warns of buying pressure from investors (yields fall when prices rise) who are looking for safety.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-02-09-tnx.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"10-Year Treasury Yield\" \/><\/p>\n<p>My conclusion is the same as last week. This is a bear market. Recovery hinges on an unlikely resolution of the US-China &#8216;trade dispute&#8217;.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"qtn\"><p>The secret of happiness is freedom and the secret of freedom is courage.<\/p>\n<p>~ Thucydides (460 &#8211; 400 B.C.)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bloomberg: &#8220;U.S. stocks slid as investors grew anxious that the Trump administration won\u2019t reach a trade deal with China before a March deadline for escalating the war. Treasuries surged. The post-Christmas rally that added 16 percent to the S&amp;P 500 came under increasing pressure amid reports the two trading partners remained far apart on a &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/02\/08\/more-signs-of-risk-avoidance\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;More signs of risk avoidance&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[44,6,57,34],"tags":[70,2527,3010],"class_list":["post-17860","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-crude-oil-natural-gas","category-fixed-income","category-stock-markets","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-10-year-treasury-yields","tag-nymex-light-crude","tag-sp-500"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>More signs of risk avoidance - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"More signs of risk avoidance - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Bloomberg: &#8220;U.S. stocks slid as investors grew anxious that the Trump administration won\u2019t reach a trade deal with China before a March deadline for escalating the war. Treasuries surged. The post-Christmas rally that added 16 percent to the S&amp;P 500 came under increasing pressure amid reports the two trading partners remained far apart on a &hellip; Continue reading &quot;More signs of risk avoidance&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/02\/08\/more-signs-of-risk-avoidance\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-02-08T11:38:47+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/static.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-02-09-spx.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/02\\\/08\\\/more-signs-of-risk-avoidance\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/02\\\/08\\\/more-signs-of-risk-avoidance\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"More signs of risk avoidance\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-02-08T11:38:47+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/02\\\/08\\\/more-signs-of-risk-avoidance\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":208,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/02\\\/08\\\/more-signs-of-risk-avoidance\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2018\\\/2019-02-09-spx.png\",\"keywords\":[\"10-Year Treasury Yields\",\"Nymex Light Crude\",\"S&amp;P 500\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas\",\"Fixed Income\",\"Stock Markets\",\"US &amp; Canada\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/02\\\/08\\\/more-signs-of-risk-avoidance\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/02\\\/08\\\/more-signs-of-risk-avoidance\\\/\",\"name\":\"More signs of risk avoidance - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/02\\\/08\\\/more-signs-of-risk-avoidance\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/02\\\/08\\\/more-signs-of-risk-avoidance\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2018\\\/2019-02-09-spx.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-02-08T11:38:47+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/02\\\/08\\\/more-signs-of-risk-avoidance\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/02\\\/08\\\/more-signs-of-risk-avoidance\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/02\\\/08\\\/more-signs-of-risk-avoidance\\\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2018\\\/2019-02-09-spx.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2018\\\/2019-02-09-spx.png\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/02\\\/08\\\/more-signs-of-risk-avoidance\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"More signs of risk avoidance\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. Strategic. Unfiltered. \",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#organization\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/i0.wp.com\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/03\\\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/i0.wp.com\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/03\\\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1\",\"width\":250,\"height\":250,\"caption\":\"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.facebook.com\\\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\",\"https:\\\/\\\/www.instagram.com\\\/colin_thepatientinvestor\"]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\",\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Colin Twiggs\"},\"description\":\"Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients. Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\\\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/facebook.com\\\/people\\\/The-Patient-Investor\\\/61572934660810\\\/\",\"https:\\\/\\\/www.instagram.com\\\/colin_thepatientinvestor\",\"https:\\\/\\\/au.linkedin.com\\\/in\\\/colintwiggs\"],\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/author\\\/investor\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"More signs of risk avoidance - the patient investor","robots":{"index":"noindex","follow":"follow"},"og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"More signs of risk avoidance - the patient investor","og_description":"Bloomberg: &#8220;U.S. stocks slid as investors grew anxious that the Trump administration won\u2019t reach a trade deal with China before a March deadline for escalating the war. Treasuries surged. The post-Christmas rally that added 16 percent to the S&amp;P 500 came under increasing pressure amid reports the two trading partners remained far apart on a &hellip; Continue reading \"More signs of risk avoidance\"","og_url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/02\/08\/more-signs-of-risk-avoidance\/","og_site_name":"the patient investor","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810","article_author":"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","article_published_time":"2019-02-08T11:38:47+00:00","og_image":[{"url":"http:\/\/static.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-02-09-spx.png","type":"","width":"","height":""}],"author":"Colin Twiggs","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Colin Twiggs","Est. reading time":"1 minute"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/02\/08\/more-signs-of-risk-avoidance\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/02\/08\/more-signs-of-risk-avoidance\/"},"author":{"name":"Colin Twiggs","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454"},"headline":"More signs of risk avoidance","datePublished":"2019-02-08T11:38:47+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/02\/08\/more-signs-of-risk-avoidance\/"},"wordCount":208,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/02\/08\/more-signs-of-risk-avoidance\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-02-09-spx.png","keywords":["10-Year Treasury Yields","Nymex Light Crude","S&amp;P 500"],"articleSection":["Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas","Fixed Income","Stock Markets","US &amp; Canada"],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/02\/08\/more-signs-of-risk-avoidance\/","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/02\/08\/more-signs-of-risk-avoidance\/","name":"More signs of risk avoidance - the patient investor","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/02\/08\/more-signs-of-risk-avoidance\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/02\/08\/more-signs-of-risk-avoidance\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-02-09-spx.png","datePublished":"2019-02-08T11:38:47+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/02\/08\/more-signs-of-risk-avoidance\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/02\/08\/more-signs-of-risk-avoidance\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/02\/08\/more-signs-of-risk-avoidance\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-02-09-spx.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-02-09-spx.png"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/02\/08\/more-signs-of-risk-avoidance\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"More signs of risk avoidance"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/","name":"The Patient Investor","description":"Smart. Strategic. Unfiltered. ","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization","name":"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1","contentUrl":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1","width":250,"height":250,"caption":"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor"]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454","name":"Colin Twiggs","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Colin Twiggs"},"description":"Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients. Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-4E4","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":11087,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/10\/09\/market-lifts-despite-weak-global-economy\/","url_meta":{"origin":17860,"position":0},"title":"Market lifts despite weak global economy","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"October 9, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Minutes of the September FOMC meeting highlight growing unease with the strong US Dollar and a weak global economy. The market read this as \"low interest rates\" and commenced a buying spree. Last year the quarter-end sell-off ended on October 9th after a 4.2% fall. This year's correction fell 4.7%,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Fedex","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-10-09-fdx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-10-09-fdx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-10-09-fdx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":10476,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/07\/31\/what-caused-the-dow-sell-off\/","url_meta":{"origin":17860,"position":1},"title":"What caused the Dow sell-off?","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 31, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.88% to close at 16563, breach of 16750 warning of a secondary correction. Decline of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero would strengthen the signal. Breach of primary support at 15500 is unlikely and the trend remains upward. * Target calculation: 16500 + ( 16500\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Dow Jones Industrial Average","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-31-dow.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-31-dow.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-31-dow.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":41044,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/03\/01\/dont-trust-the-vix\/","url_meta":{"origin":17860,"position":2},"title":"Don&#8217;t trust the VIX","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 1, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"10-Year US Treasury yields broke resistance at 3.90% and are now retracing to test the new support level. Respect would confirm the target of 4.20%. The S&P 500 retreated from resistance at 4200 over the last month as long-term yields rose. Annual rate-of-change continues to signal a bear market. Volatility\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-03-01-10y.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-03-01-10y.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-03-01-10y.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":36579,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/08\/20\/base-case-global-recession\/","url_meta":{"origin":17860,"position":3},"title":"Base case: global recession","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 20, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The Treasury yield curve is flattening, with the 10-year\/3-month yield differential plunging sharply, to a current 0.24%. Another 75 basis point rate hike at the next FOMC meeting is expected to drive the 3-month T-Bill discount rate above the 10-year yield, the negative spread warning of a deep recession in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year & minus 3-Month Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-19-10y3m.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-19-10y3m.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-19-10y3m.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13740,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/09\/20\/sp-bullish-but-asia-europe-weak-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":17860,"position":4},"title":"S&#038;P bullish but Asia, Europe weak","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"September 20, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Weekly highlights: Scotland votes \"No\" and the Pound rallies Treasury yields (long-term) are rising and the Dollar strengthens Gold and crude oil fall European stocks remain bearish Asian stocks also remain bearish despite Hong Kong\/Shanghai breakout US stocks still reflect a bull market Stock markets Dow Jones Europe Index is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Market Insights&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-09-20-djeu.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-09-20-djeu.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-09-20-djeu.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":19025,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/05\/sp-500-survives-but-risk-is-elevated\/","url_meta":{"origin":17860,"position":5},"title":"S&#038;P 500 survives but risk is elevated","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 5, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Our recession indicator, a 3-month TMO of seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, ticked up slightly to 0.52%. This reflects a slight improvement in monthly employment data but the indicator remains precariously close to the amber (high risk) warning level of 0.50%. The red warning level of 0.30% would signal extreme risk\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Deficit Spending &amp; Employment&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending &amp; Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17860","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17860"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17860\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17861,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17860\/revisions\/17861"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17860"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17860"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17860"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}