{"id":17860,"date":"2019-02-08T11:38:47","date_gmt":"2019-02-08T11:38:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=17860"},"modified":"2019-02-08T11:38:47","modified_gmt":"2019-02-08T11:38:47","slug":"more-signs-of-risk-avoidance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/02\/08\/more-signs-of-risk-avoidance\/","title":{"rendered":"More signs of risk avoidance"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bloomberg<\/a>: “U.S. stocks slid as investors grew anxious that the Trump administration won\u2019t reach a trade deal with China before a March deadline for escalating the war. Treasuries surged.<\/p>\n

The post-Christmas rally that added 16 percent to the S&P 500 came under increasing pressure amid reports the two trading partners remained far apart on a deal and that the nations\u2019 presidents won\u2019t meet before higher tariffs are slated to take effect on Chinese goods next month.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

S&P 500 volatility remains high. If the rally runs out of steam, a large Twiggs Volatility (21-day) trough above 1.0% would signal a bear market. Retreat below 2600 would reinforce the signal.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

Crude prices retreated below resistance at $54\/$55 per barrel, on fears of falling global (mainly Chinese) demand. Another test of primary support at $42\/barrel is likely.<\/p>\n

\"Light<\/p>\n

10-Year Treasury yields retreated to 2.65%. A Trend Index peak below zero warns of buying pressure from investors (yields fall when prices rise) who are looking for safety.<\/p>\n

\"10-Year<\/p>\n

My conclusion is the same as last week. This is a bear market. Recovery hinges on an unlikely resolution of the US-China ‘trade dispute’.<\/p>\n

The secret of happiness is freedom and the secret of freedom is courage.<\/p>\n

~ Thucydides (460 – 400 B.C.)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bloomberg: “U.S. stocks slid as investors grew anxious that the Trump administration won\u2019t reach a trade deal with China before a March deadline for escalating the war. Treasuries surged. The post-Christmas rally that added 16 percent to the S&P 500 came under increasing pressure amid reports the two trading partners remained far apart on a … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “More signs of risk avoidance”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[44,6,57,34],"tags":[70,2527,3010],"class_list":["post-17860","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-crude-oil-natural-gas","category-fixed-income","category-stock-markets","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-10-year-treasury-yields","tag-nymex-light-crude","tag-sp-500"],"yoast_head":"\nMore signs of risk avoidance - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"More signs of risk avoidance - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Bloomberg: “U.S. stocks slid as investors grew anxious that the Trump administration won\u2019t reach a trade deal with China before a March deadline for escalating the war. 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This year's correction fell 4.7%,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Crude Oil & Natural Gas"","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil & Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Fedex","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-10-09-fdx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-10-09-fdx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-10-09-fdx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":10476,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/07\/31\/what-caused-the-dow-sell-off\/","url_meta":{"origin":17860,"position":1},"title":"What caused the Dow sell-off?","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 31, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.88% to close at 16563, breach of 16750 warning of a secondary correction. Decline of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero would strengthen the signal. Breach of primary support at 15500 is unlikely and the trend remains upward. * Target calculation: 16500 + ( 16500\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Dow Jones Industrial Average","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-31-dow.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-31-dow.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-31-dow.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":41044,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/03\/01\/dont-trust-the-vix\/","url_meta":{"origin":17860,"position":2},"title":"Don’t trust the VIX","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 1, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"10-Year US Treasury yields broke resistance at 3.90% and are now retracing to test the new support level. Respect would confirm the target of 4.20%. The S&P 500 retreated from resistance at 4200 over the last month as long-term yields rose. Annual rate-of-change continues to signal a bear market. Volatility\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-03-01-10y.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-03-01-10y.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-03-01-10y.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":36579,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/08\/20\/base-case-global-recession\/","url_meta":{"origin":17860,"position":3},"title":"Base case: global recession","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 20, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The Treasury yield curve is flattening, with the 10-year\/3-month yield differential plunging sharply, to a current 0.24%. Another 75 basis point rate hike at the next FOMC meeting is expected to drive the 3-month T-Bill discount rate above the 10-year yield, the negative spread warning of a deep recession in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year & minus 3-Month Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-19-10y3m.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-19-10y3m.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-19-10y3m.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13740,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/09\/20\/sp-bullish-but-asia-europe-weak-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":17860,"position":4},"title":"S&P bullish but Asia, Europe weak","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"September 20, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Weekly highlights: Scotland votes \"No\" and the Pound rallies Treasury yields (long-term) are rising and the Dollar strengthens Gold and crude oil fall European stocks remain bearish Asian stocks also remain bearish despite Hong Kong\/Shanghai breakout US stocks still reflect a bull market Stock markets Dow Jones Europe Index is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Market Insights"","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-09-20-djeu.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-09-20-djeu.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-09-20-djeu.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":10925,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/09\/19\/sp-bullish-but-asia-europe-weak\/","url_meta":{"origin":17860,"position":5},"title":"S&P bullish but Asia, Europe weak","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"September 19, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Weekly highlights: Scotland votes \"No\" and the Pound rallies Treasury yields (long-term) are rising and the Dollar strengthens Gold and crude oil fall European stocks remain bearish Asian stocks also remain bearish despite Hong Kong\/Shanghai breakout US stocks still reflect a bull market Stock markets Dow Jones Europe Index is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-09-20-djeu.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-09-20-djeu.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-09-20-djeu.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17860","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17860"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17860\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17861,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17860\/revisions\/17861"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17860"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17860"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17860"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}