{"id":17858,"date":"2019-02-08T11:12:56","date_gmt":"2019-02-08T11:12:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=17858"},"modified":"2019-02-08T11:12:56","modified_gmt":"2019-02-08T11:12:56","slug":"asx-200-spikes-but-will-it-last","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/02\/08\/asx-200-spikes-but-will-it-last\/","title":{"rendered":"ASX 200 spikes but will it last?"},"content":{"rendered":"

The reason for the upward spike in the ASX 200 is clear. While shortage in iron ore supply may be temporary, while Brazil reviews mine safety, it is sufficient to cause spot prices to jump 20% in the last week.<\/p>\n

\"Iron<\/p>\n

Windfall profits are likely to benefit not only the Materials sector but the entire economy over the next few months. The ASX 200 Materials Index ran into resistance at 12500 while a bearish divergence on Money Flow continues to warn of selling pressure.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

The ASX 200 broke resistance at 6000 but remains in a bear market. Reversal below 5650 would signal a primary decline, with a target of the 2016 low at 4700.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

ASX 200 Financials Index rallied on release of the Royal Commission on Banking final report. The outcome could have been a lot worse, or so the market seems to think.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

I suspect the bank rally will be short-lived. Credit growth is falling and broad money warns of further contraction.<\/p>\n

\"Australia<\/p>\n

House prices are falling and concerns over a slowing economy have caused many to call for further rate cuts. I believe this is short-sighted.<\/p>\n

\"Australia<\/p>\n

One of the biggest threats facing the economy is ballooning household debt. Tighter credit and falling house prices are likely to curb debt growth….provided the RBA doesn’t pour more gasoline on the fire.<\/p>\n

I have been cautious on Australian stocks, especially banks, for a while, and hold more than 40% in cash and fixed interest investments in the Australian Growth<\/a> portfolio.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The reason for the upward spike in the ASX 200 is clear. While shortage in iron ore supply may be temporary, while Brazil reviews mine safety, it is sufficient to cause spot prices to jump 20% in the last week. Windfall profits are likely to benefit not only the Materials sector but the entire economy … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “ASX 200 spikes but will it last?”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,57],"tags":[251,3987,3988,3935,881,1726,1743],"class_list":["post-17858","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-stock-markets","tag-asx-200","tag-asx-200-financials-index","tag-asx-200-materials-index","tag-broad-money","tag-credit-growth","tag-household-debt","tag-housing-prices"],"yoast_head":"\nASX 200 spikes but will it last? - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ASX 200 spikes but will it last? - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The reason for the upward spike in the ASX 200 is clear. 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A higher trough on Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure. The ASX 200 encountered resistance at 6100 but the rally\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17909,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/02\/25\/asx-200-buoyant-but-banks-a-worry\/","url_meta":{"origin":17858,"position":1},"title":"ASX 200 buoyant but banks a worry","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 25, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"The Materials sector (18.5% of the ASX 200 index) continues its advance, buoyed by a temporary iron ore shortage and positive spin on US-China trade talks. The higher trough on Twiggs Money Flow below confirms buying pressure. ASX 200 Financials (31.4% of the main index) are testing resistance at 5900\/6000\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":18028,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/03\/22\/asx-200-financials-materials-test-support\/","url_meta":{"origin":17858,"position":2},"title":"ASX 200: Financials & Materials test support","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 22, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Financials are testing their new support level at 5900\/6000. Falling housing prices are likely to drag the index lower. Penetration of the rising trendline at 5800 would warn of another test of primary support at 5300. Materials are also testing their new support level at 12500\/12600 but respect is far\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":18055,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/03\/30\/asx-200-continuation-likely\/","url_meta":{"origin":17858,"position":3},"title":"ASX 200 continuation likely","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 30, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Weak red candles on the ASX 200 Financials index indicate support at 5900\/6000. Rising troughs on Twiggs Money Flow flag buying pressure. Falling housing prices have not yet made a dent in investor confidence. Penetration of medium-term support at 5800 would warn of another test of primary support at 5300\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17937,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/03\/02\/asx-200-hanging-despite-bank-rise\/","url_meta":{"origin":17858,"position":4},"title":"ASX 200 hanging despite bank rise","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 2, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"ASX 200 Financials broke through resistance at 5900\/6000 while bullish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow signals buying pressure. The primary trend remains down but it appears that a base is forming. I remain wary of banks because of declining house prices but you can't argue with the tape. A higher\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":18084,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/04\/05\/asx-200-offshore-investors-retreat\/","url_meta":{"origin":17858,"position":5},"title":"ASX 200 offshore investors retreat","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 5, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX has undergone a sell-off in the last two days, presumed to be offshore investors withdrawing from Australian investments. Bell Direct equities analyst Julia Lee (Thursday) said it appeared that overseas investors - or even just one large player - had pulled their money from the Australian market, as\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17858","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17858"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17858\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17859,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17858\/revisions\/17859"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17858"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17858"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17858"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}