{"id":17806,"date":"2019-01-29T07:20:55","date_gmt":"2019-01-29T07:20:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=17806"},"modified":"2019-01-29T07:20:55","modified_gmt":"2019-01-29T07:20:55","slug":"gold-and-the-dollar-direction","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/01\/29\/gold-and-the-dollar-direction\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold and the Dollar direction"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Crude Oil (WTI Light Crude) respected support at $45\/barrel, with turmoil in Venezuela raising concerns over supply. Breakout above $55 would signal another rally but declining peaks on the Trend Index warn of selling pressure. Expect another test of $45. Breach of support would signal a decline to test the 2016 low at $26\/barrel.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-01-28-crude.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Crude Oil\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The Dollar index is weakening. If China continues to support the Yuan, we may see a correction to test support at 92. A lot will depend on trade talks in the next two weeks but I expect continued Dollar strength and Yuan weakness.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-01-28-dxy.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Dollar Index\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The PBOC increased support for the Yuan over the last month, leading up to the US-China trade talks, causing the Dollar to weaken.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-01-28-cny.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Chinese Yuan\/USD\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Gold has ranged below resistance at $1350\/ounce for the past five years. Expect another test of $1350 if the Dollar weakens. Breakout would signal a primary up-trend but LT Dollar strength is likely &#8230;.and a correction to test support at $1200.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-01-28-gold.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Spot Gold in USD\" \/><\/p>\n<p>A weakening Australian Dollar has helped Aussie gold stocks. The All Ordinaries Gold Index broke resistance at 5400, signaling a primary advance with a target of 7000. But that depends on further weakness in the Aussie Dollar (&lt; 70 US cents?) and\/or a stronger gold price (&gt; $1350?)<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2019-01-28-xgd.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"All Ordinaries Gold Index\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Conclusion: We are witnessing a rally in Gold due to global uncertainty but the LT outlook, with declining crude and a stronger Dollar, is bearish.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Crude Oil (WTI Light Crude) respected support at $45\/barrel, with turmoil in Venezuela raising concerns over supply. Breakout above $55 would signal another rally but declining peaks on the Trend Index warn of selling pressure. Expect another test of $45. Breach of support would signal a decline to test the 2016 low at $26\/barrel. The &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/01\/29\/gold-and-the-dollar-direction\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Gold and the Dollar direction&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[42,44,9,35],"tags":[166,678,1073,2105,3204],"class_list":["post-17806","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-chinese-yuan","category-crude-oil-natural-gas","category-gold-precious-metals","category-us-dollar-index","tag-all-ordinaries-gold-index","tag-chinese-yuan","tag-dollar-index","tag-light-crude","tag-spot-gold"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Gold and the Dollar direction - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Gold and the Dollar direction - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Crude Oil (WTI Light Crude) respected support at $45\/barrel, with turmoil in Venezuela raising concerns over supply. Breakout above $55 would signal another rally but declining peaks on the Trend Index warn of selling pressure. Expect another test of $45. Breach of support would signal a decline to test the 2016 low at $26\/barrel. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\\\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-4Dc","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":17277,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/11\/03\/crude-reversal-undermines-gold-rally\/","url_meta":{"origin":17806,"position":0},"title":"Crude reversal undermines Gold rally","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 3, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Nymex crude broke support at $65, warning of a primary down-trend with a medium-term target of $56\/barrel. Crude and gold tend to rise and fall together, over the long-term, and falling crude prices warn of gold weakness. The bear rally in Gold is likely to meet stubborn resistance at $1250.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Aussie dollar&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Aussie dollar","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/forex\/aussie-dollar\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":19645,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/01\/18\/gold-testing-resistance-despite-dollar-rise\/","url_meta":{"origin":17806,"position":1},"title":"Gold testing resistance despite Dollar rise","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 18, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Signing of the US-China phase one trade deal did little to quell demand for Gold, with the precious metal continuing to test resistance at $1560\/ounce. But a strengthening Dollar makes another test of primary support at $1450 likely. Silver is similarly testing resistance at $18 to $18.50, but declining Trend\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Chinese Yuan&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Chinese Yuan","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/forex\/chinese-yuan\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":13439,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/06\/08\/gold-strengthens-as-dollar-weakens\/","url_meta":{"origin":17806,"position":2},"title":"Gold strengthens as Dollar weakens","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"June 8, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"Long-term interest rates continue their decline, with 10-year Treasury yields testing support at 1.65 to 1.70 percent. Breach would signal a test of the all-time (July 2012) low of 1.40 percent. Gold rallied in response, breaking initial resistance at $1250\/ounce to signal a test of $1300. The Chinese appear to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-year Treasury yields","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-06-09-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-06-09-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-06-09-tnx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":51685,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/04\/23\/gold-breaks-support-6\/","url_meta":{"origin":17806,"position":3},"title":"Gold breaks support","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 23, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Gold broke support at $2330 per ounce, warning of a secondary correction to test $2200. Follow-through below $2300 would confirm. Respect of $2200, however, would indicate that the primary up-trend is intact. The Chinese Yuan weakened further to 7.245 against the Dollar. The premium on the Shanghai Gold Exchange international\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Spot Gold","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-04-23-gold.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-04-23-gold.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-04-23-gold.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":16524,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/07\/06\/gold-dollar-and-the-yuan\/","url_meta":{"origin":17806,"position":4},"title":"Gold, Dollar and the Yuan","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 6, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"China's Yuan fell sharply over the last 3 weeks, with the threat of US trade tariffs. Risk of capital flight will force the PBOC to sell foreign reserves to support the Yuan. It took $1 trillion to stem the last fall, so expect a sizable sell-off in Chinese holdings of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Aussie dollar&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Aussie dollar","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/forex\/aussie-dollar\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":16654,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/07\/14\/gold-tests-support\/","url_meta":{"origin":17806,"position":5},"title":"Gold tests support","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 14, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"China continues to support the Yuan and we can expect consolidation around 15 US cents. Threat of trade tariffs is weakening the Yuan, forcing the PBOC to sell off foreign reserves to prevent a downward spiral as investors flee and borrowers hedge against the stronger Dollar. PBOC sale of foreign\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17806","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17806"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17806\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17808,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17806\/revisions\/17808"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17806"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17806"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17806"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}