{"id":17803,"date":"2019-01-26T01:44:39","date_gmt":"2019-01-26T01:44:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=17803"},"modified":"2019-01-26T01:44:39","modified_gmt":"2019-01-26T01:44:39","slug":"deal-or-no-deal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/01\/26\/deal-or-no-deal\/","title":{"rendered":"Deal or no deal"},"content":{"rendered":"

Brexit<\/h2>\n

No one knows what the outcome of Brexit will be but, whatever the outcome, it is unlikely to send global markets into a tail-spin. There is bound to be short-term pain on both sides but the long-term costs and benefits are unclear.<\/p>\n

China<\/h2>\n

Far more likely to send investors scuttling for shelter is a ‘no deal’ outcome on US trade negotiations with China. I would be happy to be proved wrong but I believe that a deal is highly unlikely. There may be press photos with beaming officials shaking hands and tweets from the White House promising a rosy future for all (with or without a wall). But what we are witnessing is not straight-forward negotiations between trading partners, which normally take years to resolve, but a hegemonic power struggle between two super-powers, straight out of Thucydides.<\/p>\n

Thucydides wrote \u201cWhen one great power threatens to displace another, war is almost always the result.\u201d In his day it was Athens and Sparta but in the modern era, war between great powers, with mutually assured destruction (MAD), is most unlikely. Absent the willingness to use military force, the country with the greatest economic power is in the strongest position.<\/p>\n

One of the key battlefronts is technology.<\/p>\n

“China is now almost wholly dependent on foreign chipsets. And that makes leaders nervous, especially given a series of actions by foreign governments to limit the ability of Huawei and ZTE to operate internationally and acquire Western technology.” ~ Trivium China<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\u201cTo address this risk, President Xi Jinping aims to increase China’s semiconductor self-sufficiency to 40% in 2020 and 70% in 2025 as part of his \u2018Made in China 2025\u2019 initiative to modernize domestic industry.\u201d ~ Nikkei<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Xi is unlikely to abandon his \u2018Made in China 2025\u2019 plans and the US is unlikely to settle for anything less.<\/p>\n

USA<\/h2>\n

The US economy remains robust despite the extended government shutdown and concerns about Fed tightening.<\/p>\n

“Federal Reserve officials are close to deciding they will maintain a larger portfolio of Treasury securities than they had expected when they began shrinking those holdings two years ago, putting an end to the central bank\u2019s portfolio wind-down closer into sight.” ~ The Wall Street Journal<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

This is just spin. As I explained last week<\/a>. Fed run-down of assets is more than compensated by repayment of liabilities (excess reserves on deposit) on the other side of the balance sheet. Liquidity is unaffected.<\/p>\n

Charts remain bearish as the market views global risks.<\/p>\n

Volatility is high and a large (Twiggs Volatility 21-day) trough above zero on the current S&P 500 rally would signal a bear market. Retreat below 2600 would strengthen the signal.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

Asia<\/h2>\n

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index is in a bear market but shows a bullish divergence on the Trend Index. Breakout above 27,000 would signal a primary up-trend. This seems premature but needs to be monitored.<\/p>\n

\"Hang<\/p>\n

India’s Nifty has run into stubborn resistance at 11,000. Declining peaks on the Trend Index warn of selling pressure. Retreat below 10,000 would complete a classic head-and-shoulders top but don’t anticipate the signal.<\/p>\n

\"Nifty<\/p>\n

Europe<\/h2>\n

DJ Stoxx Euro 600 is in a primary down-trend. Reversal below 350 would warn of another decline.<\/p>\n

\"DJ<\/p>\n

The UK’s Footsie has retreated below primary support at 6900. Declining Trend Index peaks warn of selling pressure. This is a bear market.<\/p>\n

\"FTSE<\/p>\n

This is a bear market. Recovery hinges on an unlikely resolution of the US-China ‘trade dispute’.<\/p>\n

War is a matter not so much of arms as of money.<\/p>\n

~ Thucydides (460 \u2013 400 B.C.)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Brexit No one knows what the outcome of Brexit will be but, whatever the outcome, it is unlikely to send global markets into a tail-spin. There is bound to be short-term pain on both sides but the long-term costs and benefits are unclear. China Far more likely to send investors scuttling for shelter is a … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Deal or no deal”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[41,10,12,57,33,34],"tags":[663,3998,3997,1644,2510,3010,3414],"class_list":["post-17803","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-china-hk","category-housing-economy","category-india-singapore-countries-regions","category-stock-markets","category-uk-europe-countries-regions","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-china","tag-dj-stoxx-euro-600","tag-ftse","tag-hang-seng-index","tag-nse-nifty-index","tag-sp-500","tag-thucydides"],"yoast_head":"\nDeal or no deal - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Deal or no deal - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Brexit No one knows what the outcome of Brexit will be but, whatever the outcome, it is unlikely to send global markets into a tail-spin. 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However, the current sluggish global economy and weak trade, coupled with escalating trade tariffs and non-tariff barriers, is a worrisome combination. This is especially true because once protectionism\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":19052,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/12\/trade-talks-extend-and-pretend\/","url_meta":{"origin":17803,"position":1},"title":"Trade talks: ‘Extend and pretend’","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 12, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Donald Trump has been weakened by the impeachment process, with more than half the respondents in a recent Fox News poll wanting the troubled President impeached: \"A new high of 51 percent wants Trump impeached and removed from office, another 4 percent want him impeached but not removed, and 40\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17991,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/03\/19\/stocks-rebound-but-sentiment-soft\/","url_meta":{"origin":17803,"position":2},"title":"“Stocks rebound but sentiment soft”","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 19, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"From Bob Doll at Nuveen Investments. His weekly top themes: 1. We think the odds of a U.S. recession are low, but we also believe growth will remain soft for a couple of quarters. U.S. growth may bottom in the first half of 2019 following a relatively disappointing fourth quarter\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":18191,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/05\/11\/sp-500-no-deal\/","url_meta":{"origin":17803,"position":3},"title":"S&P 500: No deal","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 11, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"It looks like there will be no trade deal any time soon. \"Trade talks between China and the United States ended on Friday without a deal as President Trump raised tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports and signaled he was prepared for a prolonged economic fight..... Trump is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":18478,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/06\/29\/sp-500-plan-b\/","url_meta":{"origin":17803,"position":4},"title":"S&P 500: Plan B","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 29, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 is testing its all-time high at 2950. Bearish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow warns of secondary selling pressure. Respect of resistance is likely and would signal retracement to test support at 2750. The 10-Year Treasury yield has fallen to 2.0%, indicating that the Fed is expected to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":61589,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/13\/the-relief-rally-is-likely-to-be-short-lived\/","url_meta":{"origin":17803,"position":5},"title":"The relief rally is likely to be short-lived","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 13, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Summary Announcement of a reduction in US-China tariffs during a 90-day pause sparked a relief rally on Wall Street However, uncertainty over long-term US trade policy continues to cloud the economic outlook A US-China trade war could take years to resolve, and risks a global recession Relief Rally Concluding two\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-13-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-13-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-13-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17803","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17803"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17803\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17805,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17803\/revisions\/17805"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17803"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17803"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17803"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}