{"id":17773,"date":"2019-01-23T23:31:05","date_gmt":"2019-01-23T23:31:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=17773"},"modified":"2019-01-23T23:31:05","modified_gmt":"2019-01-23T23:31:05","slug":"it-could-be-on-the-scale-of-2008-smh","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/01\/23\/it-could-be-on-the-scale-of-2008-smh\/","title":{"rendered":"‘It could be on the scale of 2008’ | SMH"},"content":{"rendered":"

Harvard professor Ken Rogoff said the key policy instruments of the Communist Party are losing traction and the country has exhausted its credit-driven growth model. This is rapidly becoming the greatest single threat to the global financial system.<\/p>\n

“People have this stupefying belief that China is different from everywhere else and can grow to the moon,” said Professor Rogoff, a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund.<\/p>\n

“China can’t just keep creating credit. They are in a serious growth recession and the trade war is kicking them on the way down,” he told UK’s The Daily Telegraph<\/em>, speaking before the World Economic Forum in Davos.<\/p>\n

“There will have to be a de facto nationalisation of large parts of the economy. I fear this really could be ‘it’ at last and they are going to have their own kind of Minsky moment,” he said.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Read the full article from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard at smh.com.au: ‘It could be on the scale of 2008’: Expert sends warning on China downturn<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Harvard professor Ken Rogoff said the key policy instruments of the Communist Party are losing traction and the country has exhausted its credit-driven growth model. This is rapidly becoming the greatest single threat to the global financial system. “People have this stupefying belief that China is different from everywhere else and can grow to the … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “‘It could be on the scale of 2008’ | SMH”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,41,45,3761,34],"tags":[663,966,2303,3782],"class_list":["post-17773","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-china-hk","category-debt-levels","category-gdp-and-activity","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-china","tag-debt-growth","tag-middle-income-trap","tag-tariffs"],"yoast_head":"\n'It could be on the scale of 2008' | SMH - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"'It could be on the scale of 2008' | SMH - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Harvard professor Ken Rogoff said the key policy instruments of the Communist Party are losing traction and the country has exhausted its credit-driven growth model. This is rapidly becoming the greatest single threat to the global financial system. “People have this stupefying belief that China is different from everywhere else and can grow to the … Continue reading "‘It could be on the scale of 2008’ | SMH"\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/01\/23\/it-could-be-on-the-scale-of-2008-smh\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-01-23T23:31:05+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/01\/23\/it-could-be-on-the-scale-of-2008-smh\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/01\/23\/it-could-be-on-the-scale-of-2008-smh\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"‘It could be on the scale of 2008’ | SMH\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-01-23T23:31:05+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/01\/23\/it-could-be-on-the-scale-of-2008-smh\/\"},\"wordCount\":178,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization\"},\"keywords\":[\"China\",\"debt growth\",\"middle-income trap\",\"Tariffs\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Banks & Interest Rates\",\"China & HK\",\"Debt Levels\",\"GDP and Activity\",\"US & Canada\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/01\/23\/it-could-be-on-the-scale-of-2008-smh\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/01\/23\/it-could-be-on-the-scale-of-2008-smh\/\",\"name\":\"'It could be on the scale of 2008' | SMH - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2019-01-23T23:31:05+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/01\/23\/it-could-be-on-the-scale-of-2008-smh\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/01\/23\/it-could-be-on-the-scale-of-2008-smh\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/01\/23\/it-could-be-on-the-scale-of-2008-smh\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"‘It could be on the scale of 2008’ | SMH\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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Authored by Carmen Reinhart, Vincent Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, it examines 26 different \"debt overhangs\" that have occurred\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "UK & Europe"","block_context":{"text":"UK & Europe","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/uk-europe-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":13981,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/08\/15\/economists-turn-a-blind-eye-to-historical-data-bloomberg-view\/","url_meta":{"origin":17773,"position":1},"title":"Economists Turn a Blind Eye to Historical Data | Bloomberg View","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"August 15, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"Barry Ritholz explains where many economists are going wrong when comparing the current recovery to previous recessions: Why are so many economists, journalists and asset managers using the wrong history for their analysis? In a word: context. As I have been pointing out for nearly a decade (see here, here\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":6531,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/01\/02\/rogoff-the-unstarvable-beast-business-insider\/","url_meta":{"origin":17773,"position":2},"title":"Rogoff: The Unstarvable Beast | Business Insider","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 2, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Kenneth Rogoff, professor of economics at Harvard University, writes: As US President in the 1980\u2019s, the conservative icon Ronald Reagan described his approach to fiscal policy as \u201cstarve the beast\u201d: cutting taxes will eventually force people to accept less government spending. In many ways, his approach was a great success.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":7427,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/04\/09\/michael-pettis-china-not-headed-for-disaster-but-slower-growth\/","url_meta":{"origin":17773,"position":3},"title":"Michael Pettis: China not headed for disaster but slower growth","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"April 9, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"http:\/\/youtu.be\/cOfBlYnMAcM Extract from an interview with Michael Pettis [professor of finance at Peking University in Beijing] on the Daily Ticker talking about China's economy, which he claims is not headed for disaster, but will necessarily slow as the economy rebalances. Full HD interview can be watched here: http:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/blogs\/daily-ticker\/plenty-things-worry-china-bird-flu-not-one-174030450.html","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/img.youtube.com\/vi\/cOfBlYnMAcM\/0.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":27410,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/08\/16\/michael-pettis-china-faces-an-impossible-challenge\/","url_meta":{"origin":17773,"position":4},"title":"Michael Pettis: China faces an impossible challenge","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 16, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"When it comes to the challenges facing the Chinese economy, Michael Pettis' insights are in a class of their own: \"The Chinese growth model has relied very heavily on investment which in turn has relied very heavily on debt. As China began to over-invest in nonproductive projects, as it has\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":26571,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/06\/30\/china-retail-sales-and-credit-contraction\/","url_meta":{"origin":17773,"position":5},"title":"China retail sales and credit contraction","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 30, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Chinese retail sales are falling as credit tightens. Leland Miller at China Beige Book: \"It is hard for people to understand how hard China is squeezing credit.....Parts of the economy are going well but for any durable recovery you need consumption to come back, you need retail and services back.....\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17773","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17773"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17773\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17774,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17773\/revisions\/17774"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17773"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17773"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17773"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}