{"id":17755,"date":"2019-01-19T01:14:30","date_gmt":"2019-01-19T01:14:30","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=17755"},"modified":"2019-01-19T01:49:26","modified_gmt":"2019-01-19T01:49:26","slug":"asx-200-rallies-but-lt-bearish","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/01\/19\/asx-200-rallies-but-lt-bearish\/","title":{"rendered":"ASX 200 rallies but LT bearish"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Australian economy is creaking<\/a>. This is not a time for the Treasurer to concern himself with a balanced budget, laudable as that long-term (LT) goal may be.<\/p>\n

Household consumption is slowing, with falling car sales and international travel. Housing investment is about to go over a cliff. This time China is unlikely<\/a> to rescue the damsel in distress with another record stimulus spend.<\/p>\n

It’s time for the government to go big on infrastructure spending. Not school halls or pink batts but real infrastructure like transport and communications investment (5G for example) that will boost long-term GDP growth. We are going to need government (and private) infrastructure to offset the sharp fall in housing investment and prevent a serious contraction.<\/p>\n

The ASX 200 rallied off support at 5400 and is headed for a test of resistance at 6000. What could go wrong? This is a bear market and one strong rally is not going to change that. Respect of resistance at 6000 is likely and would warn of another test of primary support at 5400. Breach of support would offer a target of the 2016 low at 4700.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

Banks are vulnerable because of the falling housing market. The ASX 200 Financials Index is testing long-term support at 5400. Bullish divergence on the Trend Index indicates buying pressure but I believe this is secondary in nature. The primary trend is down and breach of 5400 would offer a LT target of 4000.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

The Resources sector is in far better shape but bearish divergence on the  ASX 200 Materials Trend Index warns of LT selling pressure. Reversal below 10500 would confirm a primary down-trend.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

I have been cautious on Australian stocks, especially banks, for a while, and hold 40% cash in the Australian Growth<\/a> portfolio.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Australian economy is creaking. This is not a time for the Treasurer to concern himself with a balanced budget, laudable as that long-term (LT) goal may be. Household consumption is slowing, with falling car sales and international travel. Housing investment is about to go over a cliff. This time China is unlikely to rescue … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “ASX 200 rallies but LT bearish”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,57],"tags":[251,3987,3988],"class_list":["post-17755","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-stock-markets","tag-asx-200","tag-asx-200-financials-index","tag-asx-200-materials-index"],"yoast_head":"\nASX 200 rallies but LT bearish - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ASX 200 rallies but LT bearish - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Australian economy is creaking. This is not a time for the Treasurer to concern himself with a balanced budget, laudable as that long-term (LT) goal may be. Household consumption is slowing, with falling car sales and international travel. Housing investment is about to go over a cliff. 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The Australian economy is overly-reliant on iron ore exports\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":30972,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/02\/13\/asx-hesitates-3\/","url_meta":{"origin":17755,"position":2},"title":"ASX hesitates","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 13, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 200 broke through resistance at 7200 but is now retracing to test the new support level. The declining Trend Index indicates selling pressure. A strong bearish shift Friday on US markets should see the ASX 200 retreat below 7200, warning of another test of primary support at 6800.\u00a0\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"ASX 200","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-02-14-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-02-14-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-02-14-xjo.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-02-14-xjo.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":22504,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/11\/07\/asx-and-the-long-run\/","url_meta":{"origin":17755,"position":3},"title":"ASX and the long run","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 7, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 200 is testing resistance at 6200 but declining Money Flow continues to warn of selling pressure. There is a lot of \"noise\" in the market at present -- due to COVID-19 easing, government stimulus, RBA rate cuts and political turmoil in the USA -- so we are wary\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":36106,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/08\/03\/asx-200-bear-market-despite-tight-labor-conditions\/","url_meta":{"origin":17755,"position":4},"title":"ASX 200 bearish despite tight labor market","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 3, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The RBA continues to hike interest rates, raising the cash rate to 1.85% (+0.5%) yesterday, suggesting little concern of recession at present. Unemployment, at a record low 3.5% in June, also shows no sign of a slowdown. GDP growth slowed to 0.8% in Q1, after 3.6% in Q4, but Trading\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Unemployment","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-02-unemployment.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":25948,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/05\/22\/asx-advances-cautiously\/","url_meta":{"origin":17755,"position":5},"title":"ASX advances cautiously","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 22, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 200 is retracing to test support at 7000. Narrow consolidation between 7000 and 7200 is a bullish sign. Upward breakout is likely and would signal a fresh advance. Reversal below 7000 is less likely but would warn of a test of 6500. Financial Markets Bond ETFs are testing\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17755","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17755"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17755\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17761,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17755\/revisions\/17761"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17755"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17755"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17755"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}