{"id":17753,"date":"2019-01-18T23:46:39","date_gmt":"2019-01-18T23:46:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=17753"},"modified":"2019-01-18T23:46:39","modified_gmt":"2019-01-18T23:46:39","slug":"gold-bull-or-bear","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/01\/18\/gold-bull-or-bear\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold: Bull or bear?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Gold is testing resistance at $1300\/ounce and is likely to follow-through to the long-term\u00a0(LT) ceiling at $1350. Trend Index\u00a0 on the LT\u00a0 monthly chart displays a large triangular consolidation, indicating uncertainty. Upward breakout would signal a primary up-trend but this is unlikely, for three reasons. First, this is a bear market. A decline is more likely for that reason alone. Target for a decline is the 2015 low at $1050\/ounce.<\/p>\n

\"Spot<\/p>\n

Second, a strengthening Dollar is likely to weaken Gold. I have inverted the LT chart of the Dollar Index (and Trend Index) below so that it is easier to relate to gold. As the Dollar strengthened, denoted by a LT fall on the inverted chart, Gold has weakened. The Dollar index shows a broadening consolidation since 2015, with bull and bear traps, again indicating uncertainty. At present, the Dollar is testing resistance at 97 but is likely to follow through to test LT resistance at 100. Rising Trend Index troughs above zero (remember the scale is inverted) signal buying pressure.<\/p>\n

\"Dollar<\/p>\n

Third, falling Crude Oil prices are bearish for Gold. The LT chart below compares spot crude\u00a0 to\u00a0 spot gold, both adjusted for inflation to bring earlier peaks into proper perspective. The LT relationship is clear: gold and crude tend to rise and fall together. Crude prices have recently tumbled, exerting downward pressure on Gold.<\/p>\n

\"Gold<\/p>\n

Conclusion: We are witnessing a rally in Gold because of global uncertainty but the LT outlook is bearish.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Gold is testing resistance at $1300\/ounce and is likely to follow-through to the long-term\u00a0(LT) ceiling at $1350. Trend Index\u00a0 on the LT\u00a0 monthly chart displays a large triangular consolidation, indicating uncertainty. Upward breakout would signal a primary up-trend but this is unlikely, for three reasons. First, this is a bear market. A decline is more … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Gold: Bull or bear?”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[44,9,35],"tags":[898,1073,3204],"class_list":["post-17753","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-crude-oil-natural-gas","category-gold-precious-metals","category-us-dollar-index","tag-crude-oil-2","tag-dollar-index","tag-spot-gold"],"yoast_head":"\nGold: Bull or bear? - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Gold: Bull or bear? - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Gold is testing resistance at $1300\/ounce and is likely to follow-through to the long-term\u00a0(LT) ceiling at $1350. Trend Index\u00a0 on the LT\u00a0 monthly chart displays a large triangular consolidation, indicating uncertainty. Upward breakout would signal a primary up-trend but this is unlikely, for three reasons. First, this is a bear market. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. 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Breach of support at $55\/barrel would indicate a test of $45\/barrel. Falling crude prices are likely to strengthen the Dollar. Dollar Index breakout above 100 would signal another primary advance. Penetration of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Crude Oil & Natural Gas"","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil & Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":32100,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/04\/19\/gold-versus-the-dollar-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":17753,"position":1},"title":"Gold versus the Dollar","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 19, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The Dollar Index broke through 100, continuing its strong up-trend. But this is simply a case of the best horse in the glue factory. A rising Dollar Index reflects weakness in the Euro, with soaring energy costs threatening a European recession and Trend Index peaks below zero warning of strong\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Dollar Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-04-19-dxy.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-04-19-dxy.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-04-19-dxy.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-04-19-dxy.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":17348,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/11\/09\/gold-crude-weaken-as-the-dollar-lifts\/","url_meta":{"origin":17753,"position":2},"title":"Gold & Crude weaken as the Dollar lifts","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 9, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Nymex Light Crude is testing support at $60\/barrel on the long-term rising trendline. Breach would confirm a primary down-trend with a long-term target of $45\/barrel. Crude and gold tend to rise and fall together. The long-term chart below compares gold and crude prices adjusted for inflation (CPI). The bear rally\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Crude Oil & Natural Gas"","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil & Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17243,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/10\/27\/gold-rally-expected-to-falter-as-dollar-strengthens\/","url_meta":{"origin":17753,"position":3},"title":"Gold rally expected to falter as Dollar strengthens","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 27, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"China's Yuan continues to weaken while the Dollar index strengthens. Follow-through above 97 would signal another primary advance. A strengthening Dollar would weaken demand for Gold. The bear rally is likely to meet stubborn resistance at $1250. Reversal below support at $1180 would warn of a decline to the 2015\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Crude Oil & Natural Gas"","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil & Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17890,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/02\/16\/gold-rallies-but-so-does-the-dollar\/","url_meta":{"origin":17753,"position":4},"title":"Gold rallies but so does the Dollar","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 16, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"A long-term (monthly) chart shows Crude Oil (WTI Light Crude) has broken below its trend channel and is testing support at $45\/barrel. Weak crude tends to coincide with a strong Dollar. Breakout of the Dollar index above 97 is likely. Rising Trend index troughs indicate buying pressure. Gold is headed\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Crude Oil & Natural Gas"","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil & Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17806,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/01\/29\/gold-and-the-dollar-direction\/","url_meta":{"origin":17753,"position":5},"title":"Gold and the Dollar direction","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 29, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Crude Oil (WTI Light Crude) respected support at $45\/barrel, with turmoil in Venezuela raising concerns over supply. Breakout above $55 would signal another rally but declining peaks on the Trend Index warn of selling pressure. Expect another test of $45. Breach of support would signal a decline to test the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Chinese Yuan"","block_context":{"text":"Chinese Yuan","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/forex\/chinese-yuan\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17753","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17753"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17753\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17754,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17753\/revisions\/17754"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17753"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17753"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17753"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}