{"id":17731,"date":"2019-01-12T01:15:47","date_gmt":"2019-01-12T01:15:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=17731"},"modified":"2019-01-12T01:21:33","modified_gmt":"2019-01-12T01:21:33","slug":"chinas-newest-export","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/01\/12\/chinas-newest-export\/","title":{"rendered":"China’s newest export"},"content":{"rendered":"

“Polish authorities have arrested a Chinese employee of Huawei, the Chinese telecommunications giant, and a Polish citizen, and charged them with spying for Beijing, officials said on Friday, amid a push by the United States and its allies to restrict the use of Chinese technology based on espionage fears….
\nIt is not the first time in recent months a Huawei employee has been arrested abroad. Meng Wanzhou, the company’s chief financial officer, was arrested in Canada last month at the request of the United States, where she had been charged with fraud designed to violate American sanctions on Iran….
\nA 2012 report from United States lawmakers said that Huawei and another company, ZTE, were effectively arms of the Chinese government whose equipment was used for spying. Security firms have reported finding software installed on Chinese-made phones that sends users’ personal data to China.”
\nFrom Joanna Berendt at The New York Times<\/a><\/i><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Lack of independence of private companies in China, their use for espionage purposes including industrial espionage, and failure to open Chinese markets up to foreign competitors are likely to throttle attempts to resolve trade disputes with the US. An impasse seems unavoidable.<\/p>\n

It is important that the West confronts China over their trade tactics, espionage and ‘influence’ operations. Whether Donald Trump is the right person to lead this, I will leave for you to judge.<\/p>\n

I doubt that China wants to rule the world. Dominate, perhaps. But the overriding goal of their leaders is to ensure the survival of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). They want to make the world safe for autocracy<\/i>. They don’t seem to understand that this is an oxymoron. Autocracies make the world unsafe because they lack the checks and balances, imperfect as they may be, that ensure stable government in democracies whose citizens are protected by rule of law. If you think the world is already unsafe, imagine Donald Trump as president without the constraints of the US Constitution. History provides plenty of evidence of autocrats \u2014 Stalin, Hitler and Mao are prime examples \u2014 who abused their power with catastrophic results.<\/p>\n

China’s newest export may be a global recession if world leaders are not careful. These two charts from the RBA highlight the current state of play.<\/p>\n

Declining growth in retail sales is accelerating. Manufacturing PMI is rolling over and industrial production is likely to follow.<\/p>\n

\"China<\/p>\n

Output, on the other hand is surging, as the state attempts to spend its way out of a recession. Cement production is the sole laggard.<\/p>\n

\"China<\/p>\n

Matt O’Brien at The Age<\/a> describes China’s dilemma:<\/p>\n

…in the depths of the Great Recession, Beijing unleashed a stimulus the likes of which the world hadn’t seen since World War II.<\/p>\n

It amounted to some 19 per cent of its gross domestic product, according to Columbia University historian Adam Tooze. By point of comparison, US President Barack Obama’s stimulus was only about 5 or 6 per cent of US GDP.<\/p>\n

Aside from its size, what made China’s stimulus unique was the way it was administered. The central government didn’t borrow a lot of money itself to use on infrastructure, but it pushed local governments and state-owned companies to do so.<\/p>\n

The result was a web of debt that’s been even harder to clean up than it might have been because of all the money that unregulated lenders – “shadow banks” – were frantically handing out above and beyond what Beijing had been hoping for….<\/p>\n

What is new, though, is that this isn’t working quite as well as before. As the International Monetary Fund reports, China seems to have reached a point of diminishing returns with this kind of credit stimulus.<\/p>\n

So much new debt is either going toward paying off old debt or toward economically questionable projects that it takes a lot more of it than it used to just to achieve the same amount of growth.<\/p>\n

Three times as much, in fact. Whereas it had only taken 6.5 trillion yuan of new credit to make China’s economy grow by 5 trillion yuan per year in 2008, it took 20 trillion yuan of new credit by 2016.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

I don’t share Matt’s conclusion that Wall Street fears the broad market will follow Apple (AAPL) into a tailspin as Chinese retail sales decline. I covered this in my last newsletter<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Nor do I think that falling Chinese steel production will plunge the global economy into recession. Though it would certainly affect Australia.<\/p>\n

China has $3 trillion of foreign reserves and has shown in the past that it is prepared to spend big to buy its way out of a recession. Whether they succeed this time is uncertain, but old-fashioned stimulus spending will soften the impact.<\/p>\n

I believe Wall Street has no idea how the trade dispute will play out. And financial markets have gone risk-off because of the uncertainty, despite a booming US economy.<\/p>\n

Earnings ratios have fallen dramatically, back to 17.8, from what was clearly bubble territory above 20 times historic earnings. I use the highest preceding four quarters earnings, to smooth out earnings volatility, so my P\/E charts (PEmax) will look a little different to anyone else’s.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

Market volatility remains high, with S&P 500 Volatility (21-day) above 2.0%. A trough above 1% on the next multi-week rally would confirm a bear market \u2014 as would an index retracement that respects 2600.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

Momentum shows a strong bearish divergence.<\/p>\n

\"S&P500<\/p>\n

Similar to the Dotcom era below. It would be prudent to wait for a bullish divergence, as in 2003, to signal the start of the next bull market.<\/p>\n

\"S&P500<\/p>\n

I repeat the same quote as last week as an important reminder of current market volatility.<\/p>\n

What beat me was not having brains enough to stick to my own game \u2013 that is, to play the market only when I was satisfied that precedents favored my play. There is the plain fool, who does the wrong thing at all times everywhere, but there is also the Wall Street fool, who thinks he must trade all the time.<\/p>\n

~ Jesse Livermore<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

“Polish authorities have arrested a Chinese employee of Huawei, the Chinese telecommunications giant, and a Polish citizen, and charged them with spying for Beijing, officials said on Friday, amid a push by the United States and its allies to restrict the use of Chinese technology based on espionage fears…. It is not the first time … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “China’s newest export”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[41,3761,3778,57,34],"tags":[3766,3868,3010],"class_list":["post-17731","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-china-hk","category-gdp-and-activity","category-international-trade","category-stock-markets","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-pemax","tag-price-earnings","tag-sp-500"],"yoast_head":"\nChina's newest export - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"China's newest export - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"“Polish authorities have arrested a Chinese employee of Huawei, the Chinese telecommunications giant, and a Polish citizen, and charged them with spying for Beijing, officials said on Friday, amid a push by the United States and its allies to restrict the use of Chinese technology based on espionage fears…. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-4BZ","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":18478,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/06\/29\/sp-500-plan-b\/","url_meta":{"origin":17731,"position":0},"title":"S&P 500: Plan B","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 29, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 is testing its all-time high at 2950. Bearish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow warns of secondary selling pressure. Respect of resistance is likely and would signal retracement to test support at 2750. The 10-Year Treasury yield has fallen to 2.0%, indicating that the Fed is expected to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":18235,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/05\/18\/the-eye-of-the-storm\/","url_meta":{"origin":17731,"position":1},"title":"The eye of the storm","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 18, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"\"On Wednesday, the US Department of Commerce added Huawei \u2013 and 70 other companies \u2013 to its \u201cEntity List.\u201d .... Huawei cannot buy parts or components from US companies without the explicit approval of the US government.\" (Trivium China) We are sliding towards a fully-fledged trade war. Following straight after\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":28949,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/11\/13\/citadel-us-monetary-policy-will-hurt-global-growth\/","url_meta":{"origin":17731,"position":2},"title":"Citadel: US monetary policy will hurt global growth","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 13, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Ken Griffin, head of U.S. hedge fund firm Citadel LLC, warned that tighter U.S. monetary policy next year to contain inflation will put pressure on the Chinese economy and global growth. \u201cWe\u2019re concerned that the Fed is going to have to start to hit the brakes, with tighter monetary policy\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":14990,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/03\/19\/the-catch-22-in-u-s-chinese-relations-carnegie-tsinghua-center\/","url_meta":{"origin":17731,"position":3},"title":"The Catch-22 in U.S.-Chinese Relations | Carnegie-Tsinghua Center","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"March 19, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Paul Haenle served as the director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolian Affairs on the National Security Council staffs of former presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama prior to joining Carnegie: When, at the no-necktie summit in California in 2013, Xi [Chinese President Xi Jinping] put forward the [strategic partnership]\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":20155,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/03\/28\/asx-braces-as-china-shock-threatens\/","url_meta":{"origin":17731,"position":4},"title":"ASX braces as China shock looms","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 28, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 200 continues to experience record-breaking volatility, with sharp falls followed by sudden, unpredictable rallies. This is typical of a bear market. Mining is under-pinned by strong iron ore prices but that may not last. China faces the mother of all demand shocks in the year ahead. Demand for\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":11235,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/10\/30\/poland-prepares-for-russian-invasion-the-xx-committee\/","url_meta":{"origin":17731,"position":5},"title":"Poland Prepares for Russian Invasion | The XX Committee","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"October 30, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"A top Polish MoD official, a man of \"sober and strongly pro-American views\" opines about Barack Obama and his national security staff: \"...You have no idea how many promises we\u2019ve been given, even by the President himself, but there\u2019s never any follow-up, it\u2019s all talk. He thinks he\u2019s on Oprah.\u201d\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "The Big Picture"","block_context":{"text":"The Big Picture","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/the-big-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17731","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17731"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17731\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17735,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17731\/revisions\/17735"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17731"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17731"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17731"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}