{"id":17729,"date":"2019-01-12T00:17:08","date_gmt":"2019-01-12T00:17:08","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=17729"},"modified":"2019-01-12T00:17:08","modified_gmt":"2019-01-12T00:17:08","slug":"asx-200-bear-rally","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/01\/12\/asx-200-bear-rally\/","title":{"rendered":"ASX 200 bear rally"},"content":{"rendered":"

Credit growth in Australia is falling (with help from the Royal Commission) and broad money growth is anemic, below the lows of the GFC, warning that the economy is close to a contraction.<\/p>\n

\"RBA:<\/p>\n

Banks are particularly vulnerable because of the falling housing market. The bubble threatens to burst after a long expansion and the RBA is low on ammunition. How many rate cuts do you think they have left in reserve?<\/p>\n

The ASX 200 Financials Index is testing long-term support at 5400. Declining Momentum peaks warn of a bear market. Breach of support is likely to lead to another decline, with a long-term target of 4000.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

The Resources sector is in far better shape but the ASX 200 Materials Index is also slowing, with a strong bearish divergence on 13-week Momentum. Reversal below primary support at 11000 would confirm a primary down-trend.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

The ASX 200 is testing resistance at the former band of primary support between 5650 and 5800 (revised up from 5750). The rally could go further, possibly as high as 6150, but this is a bear market and the probability that this rally will change that is low. Respect of resistance is likely and reversal below 5650 would confirm the bear market for Australian stocks. Initial target for a primary decline is 5000.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

Our hope is that China rescues us with another massive stimulus spend,\u00a0 as in the GFC, lifting the resources sector. But hope isn’t a strategy.<\/p>\n

I have been cautious on Australian stocks, especially banks, for a while, and hold 40% cash in the Australian Growth<\/a> portfolio.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Credit growth in Australia is falling (with help from the Royal Commission) and broad money growth is anemic, below the lows of the GFC, warning that the economy is close to a contraction. Banks are particularly vulnerable because of the falling housing market. The bubble threatens to burst after a long expansion and the RBA … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “ASX 200 bear rally”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,31,57],"tags":[251,3983,3984,3935,867],"class_list":["post-17729","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-stock-markets","tag-asx-200","tag-asx-200-financial-sector","tag-asx-200-materials-sector","tag-broad-money","tag-credit"],"yoast_head":"\nASX 200 bear rally - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ASX 200 bear rally - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Credit growth in Australia is falling (with help from the Royal Commission) and broad money growth is anemic, below the lows of the GFC, warning that the economy is close to a contraction. 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While shortage in iron ore supply may be temporary, while Brazil reviews mine safety, it is sufficient to cause spot prices to jump 20% in the last week. Windfall profits are likely to benefit not only the Materials\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17670,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/12\/15\/asx-200-breaks-support-4\/","url_meta":{"origin":17729,"position":1},"title":"ASX 200 breaks support","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 15, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 200 broke primary support at 5650, signaling a down-trend. Trend Index peaks at zero warn of selling pressure. Expect retracement to test the new resistance level but respect of 5750 is likely and would confirm a bear market. Target for a primary decline is 5000. ASX 300 Metals\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17695,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/01\/04\/asx-awaits-bear-market-confirmation\/","url_meta":{"origin":17729,"position":2},"title":"ASX awaits bear market confirmation","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 4, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 200 is testing the former band of primary support between 5650 and 5750. Respect is likely and would confirm a bear market for Australian stocks. Target for a primary decline is 5000. ASX 300 Metals & Mining Index is testing primary support at 3400. Declining Trend Index peaks\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17755,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/01\/19\/asx-200-rallies-but-lt-bearish\/","url_meta":{"origin":17729,"position":3},"title":"ASX 200 rallies but LT bearish","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 19, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"The Australian economy is creaking. This is not a time for the Treasurer to concern himself with a balanced budget, laudable as that long-term (LT) goal may be. Household consumption is slowing, with falling car sales and international travel. Housing investment is about to go over a cliff. This time\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17128,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/10\/05\/asx-200-miners-rally-but-banks-a-worry\/","url_meta":{"origin":17729,"position":4},"title":"ASX 200: Miners rally but banks a worry","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 5, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 200 found support at 6120\/6150, with a long tail indicating buying interest. Follow-through above 6250 would suggest another advance. Breach is now unlikely but would warn of a test of the rising long-term trendline at 6000. A rally on resources stocks helped support the overall index. Expect the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":16796,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/08\/04\/asx-200-retreats-3\/","url_meta":{"origin":17729,"position":5},"title":"ASX 200 retreats","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 4, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"The two largest sectors in the ASX 200 are both retreating from recent highs. The ASX 300 Metals & Mining index is testing support at 3750. Breach of support and the rising trendline would warn of a test of primary support at 3400. The ASX 300 Banks index reversed below\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17729","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17729"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17729\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17730,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17729\/revisions\/17730"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17729"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17729"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17729"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}