{"id":17693,"date":"2018-12-22T00:03:02","date_gmt":"2018-12-22T00:03:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=17693"},"modified":"2018-12-22T00:03:02","modified_gmt":"2018-12-22T00:03:02","slug":"significant-divergence","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/12\/22\/significant-divergence\/","title":{"rendered":"Significant divergence"},"content":{"rendered":"

Market commentators are sifting through the data, looking for reasons to explain the sharp sell-off in stocks over the last two months. But everything they examine is likely to be shaded by their bear-tinted spectacles after the S&P 500 broke primary support at 2550.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

The Nasdaq 100 also broke primary support, confirming the bear market.<\/p>\n

\"Nasdaq<\/p>\n

Of the big five tech stocks, Apple and Google are both testing primary support, threatening to follow Facebook into a primary down-trend. If the two break primary support, that would further strengthen the bear signal.<\/p>\n

\"Big<\/p>\n

Volatility (21-day) is now close to 2% but the key is how volatility behaves on the next multi-week rally. If volatility forms a trough above 1% that would confirm the elevated risk.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

Divergence? What Divergence?<\/h3>\n

Why do I say there is a significant divergence? Look at the fundamentals.<\/p>\n

Fedex has just released stats for its most recent quarter, ended November 30. Package volumes are rising, not falling.<\/p>\n

\"Fedex<\/p>\n

Supported by a very bullish Freight Transportation Index.<\/p>\n

\"Freight<\/p>\n

Consumption is strong, with Services and Non-durable goods rebounding. No sign of a recession here.<\/p>\n

\"Consumption\"<\/p>\n

Light vehicle sales are at a robust annual rate of 17.5 million.<\/p>\n

\"Light<\/p>\n

Retail sales growth (ex motor vehicles and parts) weakened in the last month but is still in an up-trend.<\/p>\n

\"Retail\"<\/p>\n

Housing starts and authorizations are still climbing.<\/p>\n

\"Housing\"<\/p>\n

Real construction spending (adjusted by CPI) is strong.<\/p>\n

\"Construction\"<\/p>\n

Manufacturers new orders (ex defense and aircraft) have rebounded after a weak 2015 – 2016.<\/p>\n

\"Manufacturers<\/p>\n

Corporate investment is growing at a faster rate than the economy, with rising new capital formation over GDP.<\/p>\n

\"New<\/p>\n

The Fed is shrinking its balance sheet which is expected to impact on liquidity. But commercial banks are running down excess reserves on deposit at the Fed at a faster rate, so that Fed assets net of excess reserves (green line) is actually rising. Hardly a drain on liquidity.<\/p>\n

\"Fed<\/p>\n

Market pundits are watching the yield curve with bated breath, waiting for the 10-year to cross below the 2-year yield.<\/p>\n

\"Yield<\/p>\n

In the past this has served as a reliable early warning, normally 12 to 24 months ahead of a recession. But the St Louis Fed Financial Stress Index is well below zero, signaling an accommodative financial environment.<\/p>\n

\"Financial<\/p>\n

Why the mismatch? Fed actions \u2014 QE, Operation Twist, and even steps to shrink its balance sheet \u2014 have all suppressed long-term interest rates. We need to be wary of taking signals from a distorted yield curve<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Why have stocks reacted?<\/h3>\n

This is not a Pollyanna<\/i> outlook. Never argue with the tape \u2014 we are clearly in a bear market. So why are stocks diverging from the economy?<\/p>\n

The answer is China.<\/p>\n

The impact of a trade war with the US would most likely cause a recession in China. Oil prices are already plunging in anticipation of falling demand.<\/p>\n

\"Nymex<\/p>\n

Commodities are likely to follow.<\/p>\n

\"DJ<\/p>\n

The impact of a Chinese recession would be felt around the globe. Europe has its own problems and could easily follow.<\/p>\n

\"DJ<\/p>\n

The US is likely to emerge relatively unscathed but Wall Street is going to be exceedingly cautious until some semblance of normality is restored.<\/p>\n

I do not suggest selling all your stocks but make sure that there is enough cash in the portfolio to take advantage of opportunities when they arise.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Market commentators are sifting through the data, looking for reasons to explain the sharp sell-off in stocks over the last two months. But everything they examine is likely to be shaded by their bear-tinted spectacles after the S&P 500 broke primary support at 2550. The Nasdaq 100 also broke primary support, confirming the bear market. … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Significant divergence”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,43,44,46,3761,10,13,15,57,34],"tags":[3978,663,747,898,3979,1352,1362,3725],"class_list":["post-17693","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-commodities-gold-commodities","category-crude-oil-natural-gas","category-deficit-spending-employment","category-gdp-and-activity","category-housing-economy","category-inflation-economy","category-investment-infrastructure","category-stock-markets","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-balance-sheet-runoff","tag-china","tag-commodities-2","tag-crude-oil-2","tag-economic-activity","tag-fed","tag-fedex","tag-yield-curve"],"yoast_head":"\nSignificant divergence - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Significant divergence - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Market commentators are sifting through the data, looking for reasons to explain the sharp sell-off in stocks over the last two months. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-4Bn","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":7402,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/04\/03\/gold-tests-key-support-level\/","url_meta":{"origin":17693,"position":0},"title":"Gold tests key support level","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"April 3, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Spot gold is testing primary support at $1500 to $1550. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a primary trend reversal. Failure of support at $1500 would confirm. The daily chart shows penetration of support at $1550. Recovery above the support level would warn of a bear trap --\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Gold & Commodities"","block_context":{"text":"Gold & Commodities","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":10606,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/08\/14\/crude-and-commodities-weaken\/","url_meta":{"origin":17693,"position":1},"title":"Crude and commodities weaken","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"August 14, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Crude oil prices are falling. Nymex Light Crude broke support at $98\/barrel, signaling a test of primary support at $92\/barrel, while Brent Crude is testing primary support at $104. Retreat of 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero already warns of a Nymex (CL) down-trend. Commodity prices are being dragged down, with\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Commodities"","block_context":{"text":"Commodities","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/commodities-gold-commodities\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Nymex WTI Crude","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-14-crude.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-14-crude.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-14-crude.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":36180,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/08\/05\/crude-and-copper-warn-of-recession\/","url_meta":{"origin":17693,"position":2},"title":"Crude and Copper warn of recession","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 5, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Brent crude broke primary support at $100 per barrel, warning of a strong decline with an initial target of $75 per barrel. 50-Day Momentum crossed below zero, further strengthening the bear signal. Copper respected resistance at $8,000 per tonne, signaling another test of primary support at $7,000. A 50-day Momentum\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Copper"","block_context":{"text":"Copper","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/commodities-gold-commodities\/copper\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Brent Crude","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-04-brent.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-04-brent.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-04-brent.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":7748,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/05\/16\/gold-and-commodities-fall-while-dollar-and-bond-yields-rise\/","url_meta":{"origin":17693,"position":3},"title":"Gold and commodities fall while Dollar and bond yields rise","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"May 16, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Gold broke the rising trendline and support at $1440\/$1450, indicating another test of primary support at $1320. Target of $1200* for the decline would be confirmed by a breach of primary support. * Target calculation: 1350 - ( 1500 - 1350 ) = 1200 Treasury Yields Ten-year treasury yields broke\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":7996,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/07\/03\/gold-and-commodities-bear-rally-likely-to-fail\/","url_meta":{"origin":17693,"position":4},"title":"Gold and commodities bear rally likely to fail","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 3, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Gold found support at $1200\/ounce, but the rally was short-lived, encountering resistance at $1260. Breakout would test resistance at $1300\/1320, while reversal below $1230 would again test $1200. Continuation of the down-trend is likely, and failure of support at $1200 would offer a medium-term target of $1100*. * Target calculation:\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Commodities"","block_context":{"text":"Commodities","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/commodities-gold-commodities\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":44328,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/09\/27\/crude-and-copper-recession-warning\/","url_meta":{"origin":17693,"position":5},"title":"Crude and Copper recession warning","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 27, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Not every recession is caused by a spike in crude oil prices but, starting with the Arab oil embargo in 1973, almost every recession has been preceded by a spike in crude prices. The only exception is the 2020 pandemic. Nymex Light Crude adjusted by CPI Nymex Light Crude now\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Base Metals"","block_context":{"text":"Base Metals","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/commodities-gold-commodities\/base-metals\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Nymex Light Crude adjusted by CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-09-26-crude-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-09-26-crude-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-09-26-crude-cpi.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17693","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17693"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17693\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17694,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17693\/revisions\/17694"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17693"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17693"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17693"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}