{"id":17676,"date":"2018-12-15T01:38:17","date_gmt":"2018-12-15T01:38:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=17676"},"modified":"2018-12-15T01:38:17","modified_gmt":"2018-12-15T01:38:17","slug":"risk-averse-rather-than-fearful","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/12\/15\/risk-averse-rather-than-fearful\/","title":{"rendered":"Risk averse rather than fearful"},"content":{"rendered":"

The S&P 500 is again testing the band of primary support between 2600 and 2550. Follow-through below this level would warn of a bear market. Volatility (21-day) is in the amber zone between 1% and 2%. A real test of market resilience will be the next sizable rally or advance. If declining volatility remains above 1%, that would warn of an imminent market sell-off.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

The Nasdaq 100 is in a similar position, with declining Money Flow warning of medium-term selling pressure.<\/p>\n

\"Nasdaq<\/p>\n

Of the big five tech stocks, only Microsoft looks strong. Facebook is in a primary down-trend but Apple and Google are testing primary support. Apple’s exposure to China is obviously a concern. China accounts for roughly 25% of Apple’s global market but Apple estimates that it is responsible for 4.8 million jobs in China<\/a> which gives them some negotiating clout.<\/p>\n

\"Big<\/p>\n

If two more of the big five broke primary support, that would in my opinion signal a bear market.<\/p>\n

Asia<\/h3>\n

The Shanghai Composite Index is consolidating in a narrow band below 2700. Downward breakout is likely and would signal another decline, with a target of 2300.<\/p>\n

\"Shanghai<\/p>\n

India’s Nifty is testing resistance at 11,000. Respect would be bearish, warning of another test of primary support at 10,000. Declining peaks on the Trend Index warn of long-term selling pressure.<\/p>\n

\"NSX<\/p>\n

Europe<\/h3>\n

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx is in a primary down-trend. Follow-through below 350 confirms a bear market, warn of a decline to test 305\/310.<\/p>\n

\"DJ<\/p>\n

The Footsie also broke primary support at 6900. Retracement is testing the new resistance level but respect of 7000 is likely and would confirm a bear market, with a target between 5600 and 6000.<\/p>\n

\"FTSE<\/p>\n

There is a high level of uncertainty in global markets at present. Europe has Brexit and Italy. The US has investigations into Donald Trump’s election campaign. China has the threat of a trade war with the US. But my sense is that the market has become risk averse rather than fearful. There is no sign of panic selling as yet. But investors are clearly on the defensive and prepared to sell off vulnerable stocks.<\/p>\n

Adopt the pace of nature: her secret is patience.<\/p>\n

~ Ralph Waldo Emerson<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The S&P 500 is again testing the band of primary support between 2600 and 2550. Follow-through below this level would warn of a bear market. Volatility (21-day) is in the amber zone between 1% and 2%. A real test of market resilience will be the next sizable rally or advance. If declining volatility remains above … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Risk averse rather than fearful”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[41,12,57,33,34],"tags":[3972,3940,1481,2401,2475,3010,3100],"class_list":["post-17676","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-china-hk","category-india-singapore-countries-regions","category-stock-markets","category-uk-europe-countries-regions","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-big-five","tag-dj-euro-stoxx-600","tag-ftse-100","tag-nasdaq-100","tag-nifty-index","tag-sp-500","tag-shanghai-composite-index"],"yoast_head":"\nRisk averse rather than fearful - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Risk averse rather than fearful - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The S&P 500 is again testing the band of primary support between 2600 and 2550. Follow-through below this level would warn of a bear market. Volatility (21-day) is in the amber zone between 1% and 2%. A real test of market resilience will be the next sizable rally or advance. 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Growth in average hourly wage rates is rising, reflecting a tighter labor market. Underlying inflationary pressures may be rising but the Fed seems comfortable that this is containable. The\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Deficit Spending & Employment"","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending & Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":13795,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/12\/03\/nasdaq-bearish-divergence\/","url_meta":{"origin":17676,"position":1},"title":"Nasdaq bearish divergence","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"December 3, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 found resistance at 2100, indicating a continued lack of enthusiasm. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow flags medium-term selling pressure. Reversal below 2000 would warn of another test of primary support at 1870. Upward breakout now appears less likely, but would signal a fresh advance to 2400*. *\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Market Insights"","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500 Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-12-03-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-12-03-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-12-03-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":18644,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/08\/10\/sp-500-flight-to-safety\/","url_meta":{"origin":17676,"position":2},"title":"S&P 500: Flight to safety","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 10, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"10-Year Treasury yields are near record lows after Donald Trump's announcement of further tariffs on China. The fall reflects the flight to safety, with rising demand for Treasuries as a safe haven. Crude found support at $50\/barrel. Breach would warn of a new down-trend, with a target of $40\/barrel. Declining\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17161,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/10\/10\/east-to-west-nasdaq-warns-of-broad-market-correction\/","url_meta":{"origin":17676,"position":3},"title":"Nasdaq warns of broad market correction","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 10, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Tech stocks fell sharply, with the Nasdaq 100 closing below support at 7400, warning of a correction. Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) cross below zero indicates medium-term selling pressure. Follow-through of the index below 7300 would signal a correction to test 7000. The S&P 500 has so far respected support at\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":13763,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/02\/19\/broad-market-rally\/","url_meta":{"origin":17676,"position":4},"title":"Broad market rally","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"February 19, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Major indices across the US, Europe and Japan are displaying strong performance. China and India appear to be encountering stronger resistance, but should also be buoyed by the broad recovery. Bellwether transport stock Fedex (FDX) is headed for another test of resistance at $182\/$184. Breakout would signal a primary advance,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Market Insights"","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Fedex","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-02-18-fdx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-02-18-fdx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-02-18-fdx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":1336,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/10\/17\/nasdaq-hints-at-recovery\/","url_meta":{"origin":17676,"position":5},"title":"Nasdaq hints at recovery","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"October 17, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"Dow Jones Industrial Average is testing resistance at 11700. Breakout would warn of a primary advance, but the market is prone to false signals because of excessive volatility and it would be prudent to wait for confirmation. Respect of 11700, or a false break above 11700, would re-visit support at\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17676","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17676"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17676\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17677,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17676\/revisions\/17677"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17676"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17676"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17676"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}