{"id":17417,"date":"2018-11-17T01:57:53","date_gmt":"2018-11-17T01:57:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=17417"},"modified":"2018-11-17T01:57:53","modified_gmt":"2018-11-17T01:57:53","slug":"v-or-m-shaped-correction","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/11\/17\/v-or-m-shaped-correction\/","title":{"rendered":"V- or M-shaped correction?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Last week I mentioned that there are few “V-shaped” corrections and plenty with a “W-shape”. There are also a few with an “M-shape”, leading to a major market sell-off. Here are some examples on Dow Jones Industrial Average.<\/p>\n

2001 is the only good example I can find of a V-shaped<\/i> correction.<\/p>\n

\"Dow<\/p>\n

It rolled over later in 2002 into a more conventional W-shape<\/i> bottom with several tests of support at 7500.<\/p>\n

\"Dow<\/p>\n

This was followed by the banking crisis of 2008 which started with an M-shape<\/i> in 2007. Successive false breaks above resistance (orange arrows) were followed by breach of support (red arrows)…before Lehman Bros filing for bankruptcy on September 15 led to a major capitulation.<\/p>\n

\"Dow<\/p>\n

2011 is nowadays considered a secondary movement but at the time caused widespread alarm. Starting with an M-shaped<\/i> top, it broke support in August before forming a W-shaped<\/i> bottom with several tests of support at 11000.<\/p>\n

\"Dow<\/p>\n

2015 was a more conventional W-shape<\/i> precipitated by falling oil prices.<\/p>\n

\"Dow<\/p>\n

Now, in 2018, we have the makings of either a W-shaped<\/i> correction or an M-shaped<\/i> reversal. The false break above resistance at 26500 is definitely bearish but was followed by a bullish higher low at 24000.<\/p>\n

\"Dow<\/p>\n

There are three possible options:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Completion of a W-shape correction, with breakout above 27000;<\/li>\n
  2. An M-shaped reversal, with a fall below 23500; or<\/li>\n
  3. A lengthy consolidation reflecting uncertainty, as in 1999 to 2001.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    \"Dow<\/p>\n

    At this stage, option 1 is most likely. Buybacks and strong Q3 earnings are likely to counter bearish sentiment.<\/p>\n

    That would change if we see:<\/p>\n

    A negative yield curve, where the 3-month T-bill rate crosses above 10-year Treasury yields;<\/p>\n

    \"Yield<\/p>\n

    Rising troughs above 1% on the S&P 500 21-day Volatility Index; or<\/p>\n

    \"S&P<\/p>\n

    Bellwether transport stock Fedex follows-through below support at 210.<\/p>\n

    \"Fedex\"<\/p>\n

    Remember that there is nothing stable in human affairs; therefore avoid undue elation in prosperity, or undue depression in adversity.<\/p>\n

    ~ Socrates<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Last week I mentioned that there are few “V-shaped” corrections and plenty with a “W-shape”. There are also a few with an “M-shape”, leading to a major market sell-off. Here are some examples on Dow Jones Industrial Average. 2001 is the only good example I can find of a V-shaped correction. It rolled over later … <\/p>\n

    Continue reading “V- or M-shaped correction?”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,34],"tags":[1113,3010,3725],"class_list":["post-17417","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-dow-jones-industrial-average","tag-sp-500","tag-yield-curve"],"yoast_head":"\nV- or M-shaped correction? - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"V- or M-shaped correction? - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Last week I mentioned that there are few “V-shaped” corrections and plenty with a “W-shape”. There are also a few with an “M-shape”, leading to a major market sell-off. Here are some examples on Dow Jones Industrial Average. 2001 is the only good example I can find of a V-shaped correction. 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Reversal below support at 16950 is most unlikely, but would warn of a correction. * Target calculation: 17150 + ( 17150 - 16350 ) = 17950 The S&P\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Dow Jones Industrial Average","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-09-19-dow.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-09-19-dow.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-09-19-dow.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":2616,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/12\/13\/dow-warns-of-correction\/","url_meta":{"origin":17417,"position":1},"title":"Dow warns of correction","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"December 13, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"Dow Jones Industrial Average reversed below short-term support at 12000. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure -- and a correction to test primary support at 10600. Reversal (of TMF) below zero and follow-through (of DJIA) below 11900 would strengthen the signal.","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":15013,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/03\/21\/dow-breaches-support\/","url_meta":{"origin":17417,"position":2},"title":"Dow breaches support","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"March 21, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"The commentator's curse. Three days after I posted that Dow Jones Industrial Average was consolidating in a bullish narrow band below resistance at 21000, the Dow breached support at 20800. Downward breakout warns of a correction. Expect support at 20000. The false break above 21000 was a hint that all\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":15029,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/03\/24\/dow-warns-of-a-correction\/","url_meta":{"origin":17417,"position":3},"title":"Dow warns of a correction","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"March 24, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"The commentator's curse. Three days after I posted that Dow Jones Industrial Average was consolidating in a bullish narrow band below resistance at 21000, the Dow breached support at 20800. Downward breakout warns of a correction with support at 20000. Declining 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure. Follow-through\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1644,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/10\/30\/now-for-the-correction\/","url_meta":{"origin":17417,"position":4},"title":"Now for the correction","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"October 30, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"Several weeks ago, when asked what it would take to reverse the bear market, I replied that it would take 3 strong blue candles on the weekly chart followed by a correction -- of at least two red candles -- that respects the earlier low. We have had three strong\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":2234,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/11\/20\/nasdaq-dow-warn-of-correction\/","url_meta":{"origin":17417,"position":5},"title":"Nasdaq, Dow warn of correction","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"November 20, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"The NASDAQ 100 index broke support at 2300 on the weekly chart, warning of a correction to test primary support at 2000. A large bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow now warns of a primary down-trend; reversal below zero would strengthen the signal. Failure of support at 2000 would\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17417","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17417"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17417\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17418,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17417\/revisions\/17418"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17417"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17417"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17417"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}