{"id":17415,"date":"2018-11-17T00:05:21","date_gmt":"2018-11-17T00:05:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=17415"},"modified":"2018-11-17T00:05:21","modified_gmt":"2018-11-17T00:05:21","slug":"two-years-is-a-long-time","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/11\/17\/two-years-is-a-long-time\/","title":{"rendered":"Two years is a long time"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote><p>An outcome where neither Republicans nor Democrats control both chambers provides markets with reassurance that nothing too radical will emerge, making the outlook for the next two years appear more predictable and the settings more stable&#8230;&#8230;But the complacency might be premature. ~ Stephen Bartholomeusz<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>With Democrats in control, Donald Trump is unlikely to get further tax cuts through Congress. Even a large infrastructure spending program, which both major parties support, is unlikely to enjoy a smooth passage through the House because of a polarizing President and a federal budget deficit already close to 5.0% of GDP.<\/p>\n<p>The Fed will continue to raise interest rates in order to contain inflationary pressures, fueled by low unemployment and the current budget deficit. Rising average hourly wage rates warn that the Fed will be forced to act.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-11-02-wages.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Average Hourly Wage Rate\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Earnings growth rates are likely to slow because of higher interest rates, higher wages and higher input costs from imports and trade tariffs (although a strong Dollar may soften the blow). But there is no sign of this in Q2 2018, with profits rising and employee compensation falling as a percentage of value added.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-11-09-profits.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Corporate Profits and Employee Compensation as a Percentage of Value Added\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Restraint from buybacks in October &mdash; the four weeks prior to earnings releases are known as the &#8220;blackout period&#8221; &mdash; may have contributed to the severity of the recent correction. But now most earnings have been reported and buybacks are likely to return with a vengeance, taking advantage of low prices. I expect support at October lows to hold, though there is likely to be <a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/11\/08\/nasdaq-and-sp-500-rally\/\">another test in the next few weeks<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Declining Twiggs Money Flow peaks on the S&amp;P 500 warn of selling pressure and it is likely to take several months for confidence to be restored. Recovery above 2850 would be bullish, suggesting another advance.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-11-09-spx.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The Nasdaq 100 respected its long-term rising trendline at 6600. Again, recoveries take time: there are few &#8220;V-shaped&#8221; corrections and plenty with a &#8220;W-shape&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-11-09-ndx.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Nasdaq 100\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Buybacks and strong reported Q3 earnings are likely to counter bearish sentiment but there is one wild-card. Trade is one of the few areas where the President still has the reins and he is likely to make full use of them. I suspect that the Chinese will attempt to wait him out, making conciliatory noises but doing little that is concrete, which is likely to frustrate Trump further. He may try to force a deal through before the next election in two years. That could only end badly.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"qtn\"><p>The two most powerful warriors are patience and time.<\/p>\n<p>~ Leo Tolstoy<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>An outcome where neither Republicans nor Democrats control both chambers provides markets with reassurance that nothing too radical will emerge, making the outlook for the next two years appear more predictable and the settings more stable&#8230;&#8230;But the complacency might be premature. ~ Stephen Bartholomeusz With Democrats in control, Donald Trump is unlikely to get further &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/11\/17\/two-years-is-a-long-time\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Two years is a long time&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[57,34],"tags":[3951,2401,3010],"class_list":["post-17415","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stock-markets","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-average-hourly-wage-rate","tag-nasdaq-100","tag-sp-500"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Two years is a long time - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Two years is a long time - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"An outcome where neither Republicans nor Democrats control both chambers provides markets with reassurance that nothing too radical will emerge, making the outlook for the next two years appear more predictable and the settings more stable&#8230;&#8230;But the complacency might be premature. ~ Stephen Bartholomeusz With Democrats in control, Donald Trump is unlikely to get further &hellip; 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-4wT","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":62088,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/07\/04\/stocks-surge-despite-the-big-beautiful-debt-bomb\/","url_meta":{"origin":17415,"position":0},"title":"Stocks surge despite Trump&#8217;s Big Beautiful Debt Bomb","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 4, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Summary The US economy added 147K jobs in June, causing a surge in the S&P 500 The solid jobs report also caused a jump in long-term Treasury yields as prospects fade for a Fed rate cut The dollar found support, with gold weakening as a result Congress passed President Trump's\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Employment Growth","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-07-03-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-07-03-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-07-03-jobs.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":63816,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/03\/08\/labor-market-tanks-but-fed-unlikely-to-intervene\/","url_meta":{"origin":17415,"position":1},"title":"Labor Market Tanks but Fed Unlikely to Intervene","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 8, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points The job market shed 92,000 jobs in February, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. Employment in cyclical sectors has declined by 260,000 jobs since September 2024, close to the 300,000 trigger for a recession. Average hourly earnings grew at 0.4% for the second month, an annualized rate\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Cryptocurrency&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Cryptocurrency","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/forex\/cryptocurrency\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Employment Growth","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-06-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-06-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-06-jobs.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":15135,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/04\/09\/inflation-surges\/","url_meta":{"origin":17415,"position":2},"title":"Inflation surges","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"April 9, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Inflation is rising, with CPI climbing steeply above the Fed's 2% target. But core CPI excluding energy and food remains stable. Job gains were the lowest since May 2016. But the unemployment rate fell to a low 4.5%. Hourly wage rate growth has eased below 2.5%, suggesting that underlying inflationary\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":43397,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/08\/11\/cpi-falls-but-fed-unlikely-to-relent\/","url_meta":{"origin":17415,"position":3},"title":"CPI falls but Fed unlikely to relent","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 11, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"CPI fell to 3.1% for the 12 months to July, while core CPI (excluding food & energy) eased to 4.9%. What is most encouraging is that the last two months registered annualized growth of close to the Fed's 2.0% target. Food CPI declined steeply, to 4.8% for the 12 months\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Deficit Spending &amp; Employment&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending &amp; Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"CPI & Core CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-08-10-cpi-core.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-08-10-cpi-core.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-08-10-cpi-core.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":17281,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/11\/05\/buckleys-chance-that-rate-hikes-will-slow\/","url_meta":{"origin":17415,"position":4},"title":"Buckley&#8217;s chance that rate hikes will slow","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 5, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Average hourly wage rates are rising, with Production & Non-Supervisory Employees growing at an annual rate of 3.20% and All Employees at 3.14%. This is a clear warning to the Fed that underlying inflationary pressures are rising. There is Buckley's chance* that they will ease off on rate hikes. The\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":43304,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/08\/05\/1-85t-in-treasury-issuance-and-higher-wages-rock-the-boat\/","url_meta":{"origin":17415,"position":5},"title":"$1.85T in Treasury issuance and higher wages rock the boat","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 5, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 retreated below 4500, penetration of its rising trendline warning of a correction to test secondary support at 4200. The Russell 2000 Small Caps ETF (IWM) retreated from resistance at 200. Follow-through below 190 would warn of a correction to test primary support at 170. Financial Markets US\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-08-04-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-08-04-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-08-04-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17415","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17415"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17415\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17416,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17415\/revisions\/17416"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17415"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17415"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17415"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}