{"id":17281,"date":"2018-11-05T03:28:10","date_gmt":"2018-11-05T03:28:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=17281"},"modified":"2018-11-05T04:06:13","modified_gmt":"2018-11-05T04:06:13","slug":"buckleys-chance-that-rate-hikes-will-slow","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/11\/05\/buckleys-chance-that-rate-hikes-will-slow\/","title":{"rendered":"Buckley&#8217;s chance that rate hikes will slow"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Average hourly wage rates are rising, with Production &amp; Non-Supervisory Employees growing at an annual rate of 3.20% and All Employees at 3.14%.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-11-02-wages.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Average Hourly Wage Rate\" \/><\/p>\n<p>This is a clear warning to the Fed that underlying inflationary pressures are rising. There is <i>Buckley&#8217;s chance<\/i>* that they will ease off on rate hikes.<\/p>\n<p>The Fed adopts a restrictive stance whenever hourly wage rate growth exceeds 3%, illustrated below by a high or rising Fed Funds Rate.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-11-02-wages-ffr.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Average Hourly Wage Rate\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The market is adopting a wait-and-see attitude ahead of Tuesday&#8217;s mid-term elections. Stocks like Apple (AAPL) have been sold down on strong volume despite good earnings results: earnings per share of $2.91 and revenue of $62.9 billion for Q4-18, compared to consensus estimates of $2.79 and $61.5 billion.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-11-02-aapl.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Apple\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Optimism over a possible trade deal with China may not last the week.<\/p>\n<p>A harami-like candle on the S&amp;P 500 reflects indecision, while bearish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow warns of long-term selling pressure. Breach of 2550 is still unlikely but would warn of a primary down-trend.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-11-02-spx.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The Nasdaq 100 tells a similar story, with primary support at 6300.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-11-02-ndx.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Nasdaq 100\" \/><\/p>\n<blockquote><p>* William Buckley was an English convict transported to Australia. He escaped when the ships laid anchor in Port Phillip Bay in 1803. The nearest permanent settlement, Sydney, was more than 1000 km away and, considered to have no chance of survival, he was given up for dead. Thirty-two years later, having lived among the <em>Wathaurung<\/em> Aboriginal people, he emerged from the bush when a settlement was established at Port Phillip in 1835. &#8220;Buckley&#8217;s chance&#8221; is an Australian colloquialism meaning having no chance at all.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Average hourly wage rates are rising, with Production &amp; Non-Supervisory Employees growing at an annual rate of 3.20% and All Employees at 3.14%. This is a clear warning to the Fed that underlying inflationary pressures are rising. There is Buckley&#8217;s chance* that they will ease off on rate hikes. The Fed adopts a restrictive stance &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/11\/05\/buckleys-chance-that-rate-hikes-will-slow\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Buckley&#8217;s chance that rate hikes will slow&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,46,13,34],"tags":[107,213,3951,1353,2401,3010],"class_list":["post-17281","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-deficit-spending-employment","category-inflation-economy","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-aapl","tag-apple","tag-average-hourly-wage-rate","tag-fed-funds-rate","tag-nasdaq-100","tag-sp-500"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Buckley&#039;s chance that rate hikes will slow - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Buckley&#039;s chance that rate hikes will slow - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Average hourly wage rates are rising, with Production &amp; Non-Supervisory Employees growing at an annual rate of 3.20% and All Employees at 3.14%. This is a clear warning to the Fed that underlying inflationary pressures are rising. There is Buckley&#8217;s chance* that they will ease off on rate hikes. 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But job openings still exceed unemployment by more\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Deficit Spending &amp; Employment&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending &amp; Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Employment","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-09-02-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-09-02-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-09-02-jobs.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":43191,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/07\/27\/more-than-two-rate-hikes-ahead\/","url_meta":{"origin":17281,"position":2},"title":"More than two rate hikes ahead?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 27, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The FOMC announced another 25 basis point rate hike on July 26. The target maximum of 5.50% is the highest level for the fed funds rate in 22 years. Inflation is falling, with monthly CPI and core CPI (annualized) close to the Fed's 2.0% target. We expect an uptick in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Fed Funds Rate Target - Maximum","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-07-26-fomc.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-07-26-fomc.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-07-26-fomc.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-07-26-fomc.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":36317,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/08\/11\/cpi-dips-but-rate-hikes-likely-to-continue\/","url_meta":{"origin":17281,"position":3},"title":"CPI dips but rate hikes likely to continue","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 11, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"CPI dipped to 8.5% for the 12 months to July. But this still leaves the Fed way behind the curve, with a real Fed funds rate of -6.0% (8.5%-2.5%). Monthly CPI figures, however, show a sharp slowdown, with CPI falling 0.01% in July (-0.14% annualized rate). The primary cause is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-10-ffr--cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-10-ffr--cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-10-ffr--cpi.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":41631,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/04\/13\/inflation-ebbs-and-flows\/","url_meta":{"origin":17281,"position":4},"title":"Inflation ebbs (and flows)","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 13, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The consumer price index (red below) declined sharply to 5.0% for the 12 months to March, compared to 6.0% in February. But core CPI increased slightly to 5.6%, from 5.5% one month earlier. Monthly core CPI was softer, at 0.38%, but the rate seems to be steadying at around 0.4%,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"CPI & Core CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-04-12-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-04-12-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-04-12-cpi.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":16261,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/05\/12\/no-fed-squeeze-in-sight\/","url_meta":{"origin":17281,"position":5},"title":"No Fed Squeeze in Sight","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 12, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"In January I warned that the Fed's normalization plan, which will shrink its balance sheet at the rate of $100 billion in 2018 and $200 billion a year thereafter, would cause Treasury yields to rise and the Dollar to weaken. 10-Year Treasury yields are now testing resistance at 3.0 percent.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17281","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17281"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17281\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17284,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17281\/revisions\/17284"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17281"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17281"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17281"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}