{"id":17253,"date":"2018-10-29T07:06:32","date_gmt":"2018-10-29T07:06:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=17253"},"modified":"2019-01-18T00:53:49","modified_gmt":"2019-01-18T00:53:49","slug":"what-we-can-learn-from-black-monday-1987","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/10\/29\/what-we-can-learn-from-black-monday-1987\/","title":{"rendered":"What we can learn from Black Monday 1987"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The current sell-off has a similar feel to October 1987, where the crash was precipitated not by a single external shock or tectonic shift but by an accumulation of bearish sentiment that led to a major sell-off. Here is a brief timeline (with thanks to Wikipedia):<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>August 25, 1987, the Dow peaked at 2,722 points after a strong 44% run-up over the previous 12 months, with low inflation and falling crude oil prices boosting the recovery.<\/li>\n<li>October 14, the index dropped 95.46 points (3.8%) (a then record) to 2,412.70.<\/li>\n<li>October 15, Iran attacked the American-owned (and Liberian-flagged) supertanker, the <em>Sungari<\/em>, with a Silkworm missile off Kuwait&#8217;s <em>Mina Al Ahmadi<\/em> oil port. The Dow fell another 58 points (2.4%), down over 12% from its August high.<\/li>\n<li>October 16, Iran hit another ship the next morning, the U.S.-flagged <em>MV Sea Isle City<\/em>, with another Silkworm missile. The Dow fell 108.35 points (4.6%) to close at 2,246.74 on record volume. Markets in London were closed due to the <em>Great Storm of 1987<\/em>.<\/li>\n<li>Monday, October 19, 1987, the crash began in Hong Kong and spread West. By 9.30am the Footsie (FTSE 100) had fallen over 136 points. Later that morning, two U.S. warships shelled an Iranian oil platform in the Persian Gulf in response to Iran&#8217;s earlier attack. The sell-off reached the United States, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling a record 22.6% or 508 points to 1,738.74.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-10-27-dow1987.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Dow Jones Industrial Average, October 1987\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The total draw-down of 36.1% was at least partly attributable to fears that conflict with Iran would impact on oil prices but there were also underlying tensions relating to exchange rates after the 1985 Plaza accord as well as fears of rising inflation and higher interest rates. What should not be underestimated, however, is the effect of programmed trading as institutional investors dumped stock in response to falling prices.<\/p>\n<p>We are currently witnessing a similar herd mentality, where investors sell because others are selling, without heed to the merits of the stock they hold. Just not as severe (so far).<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-10-27-dow.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Dow Jones Industrial Average\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The Dow correction is secondary but a lot will depend on this week. Whether primary support holds at 23,500 and whether institutional sellers join the melee.<\/p>\n<h4>The Moral of the Story<\/h4>\n<p>Compare Dow values today to those in 1987. The recent peak of 27,000 is almost ten times higher than the peak of August 1987. There is a lot to be said for sitting tight.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The current sell-off has a similar feel to October 1987, where the crash was precipitated not by a single external shock or tectonic shift but by an accumulation of bearish sentiment that led to a major sell-off. Here is a brief timeline (with thanks to Wikipedia): August 25, 1987, the Dow peaked at 2,722 points &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/10\/29\/what-we-can-learn-from-black-monday-1987\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;What we can learn from Black Monday 1987&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[57,34],"tags":[3771,1113,3950],"class_list":["post-17253","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stock-markets","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-black-monday","tag-dow-jones-industrial-average","tag-october-1987-crash"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>What we can learn from Black Monday 1987 - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"What we can learn from Black Monday 1987 - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The current sell-off has a similar feel to October 1987, where the crash was precipitated not by a single external shock or tectonic shift but by an accumulation of bearish sentiment that led to a major sell-off. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-4uh","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":19967,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/03\/13\/black-monday-all-over-again\/","url_meta":{"origin":17253,"position":0},"title":"Black Monday all over again","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 13, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"We don't seem to learn. The stock market has gone over a cliff. The speed of the falls is reminiscent of the Black Monday crash on October 19, 1987, when the Dow fell 22.6% in a single day. Those figures will never be exceeded because of recommendations that came out\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Debt Levels&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Debt Levels","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/debt-levels\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":16095,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/02\/04\/black-monday-october-1987\/","url_meta":{"origin":17253,"position":1},"title":"Black Monday, October 1987","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 4, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Cross-posted from Goldstocksforex.com: What caused the Black Monday crash of 1987? Analysts are often unable to identify a single trigger or cause. Sniper points to a sharp run-up in short-term interest rates in the 3 months prior to the crash. Valuations were also at extreme readings, with PEmax (price-earnings based\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Earnings &amp; Dividends&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Earnings &amp; Dividends","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investing\/earnings-dividends\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":20064,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/03\/21\/sp-500-this-time-its-different\/","url_meta":{"origin":17253,"position":2},"title":"S&#038;P 500: &#8220;This time it&#8217;s different&#8221;","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 21, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"No warning. No volatility working its way higher as market fears build. Just a sudden and abrupt crash. It's more reminiscent of October 1987, when the Dow fell 22.6% in a single session, than the most recent two stock market crashes (2000 & 2008). In 1987 the Dow from a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":20257,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/04\/15\/sp-500-and-the-volatility-spike\/","url_meta":{"origin":17253,"position":3},"title":"The S&#038;P 500 volatility spike","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 15, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"This comment from Bob Doll at Nuveen Investments intrigued me: Stocks have probably already seen their primary low for this bear market. Bear markets typically occur in stages. First is a waterfall decline. We think that phase may have ended on March 22 when the S&P 500 bottomed at 2,192.1\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Deficit Spending &amp; Employment&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending &amp; Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17768,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/01\/22\/cautiously-bearish\/","url_meta":{"origin":17253,"position":4},"title":"Cautiously bearish","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 22, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"In my last newsletter I said: \"We are witnessing the transition from a bull to a bear market......It's time to be cautiously bearish.\" What does \"cautiously bearish\" mean? There are two types of bear markets. First, is the October 1987-style blow-off, where the market goes over a cliff into an\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":19351,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/30\/if-you-thought-the-sell-off-was-over\/","url_meta":{"origin":17253,"position":5},"title":"If you thought the sell-off was over","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 30, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Flush with new money, the S&P 500 broke resistance at 3030 this week to set a new high. Declining Money Flow,\u00a0 however, warns of selling pressure. Expect retracement to test the new support level at 3000. Breach would signal another test of support at the recent lows of 2830 to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17253","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17253"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17253\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17752,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17253\/revisions\/17752"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17253"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17253"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17253"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}