{"id":17135,"date":"2018-10-05T22:32:36","date_gmt":"2018-10-05T22:32:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=17135"},"modified":"2018-10-05T22:32:36","modified_gmt":"2018-10-05T22:32:36","slug":"extraordinary-times-of-low-unemployment-and-low-inflation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/10\/05\/extraordinary-times-of-low-unemployment-and-low-inflation\/","title":{"rendered":"Extraordinary times of low unemployment and low inflation"},"content":{"rendered":"

Unemployment fell to 3.7% for September, well below the long-term natural rate of unemployment. This normally signifies a tightening labor market, a precursor to higher inflation.<\/p>\n

\"Unemployment<\/p>\n

But growth in average hourly earnings dipped slightly, to 2.75% for the past 12 months. Underlying inflationary forces remain subdued.<\/p>\n

\"Average<\/p>\n

As Fed Chairman Powell suggested, the Fed may be overestimating the natural rate. In his speech on Tuesday<\/a> Powell summed up the current situation:<\/p>\n

…Many of us have been looking back recently on the decade that has passed since the depths of the financial crisis. In light of that experience, I am glad to be able to stand here and say that the economy is strong, unemployment is near 50-year lows, and inflation is roughly at our 2 percent objective. The baseline outlook of forecasters inside and outside the Fed is for more of the same.<\/p>\n

This historically rare pairing of steady, low inflation and very low unemployment is testament to the fact that we remain in extraordinary times. Our ongoing policy of gradual interest rate normalization reflects our efforts to balance the inevitable risks that come with extraordinary times, so as to extend the current expansion, while maintaining maximum employment and low and stable inflation.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Unemployment fell to 3.7% for September, well below the long-term natural rate of unemployment. This normally signifies a tightening labor market, a precursor to higher inflation. But growth in average hourly earnings dipped slightly, to 2.75% for the past 12 months. Underlying inflationary forces remain subdued. As Fed Chairman Powell suggested, the Fed may be … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Extraordinary times of low unemployment and low inflation”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46,13,34],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17135","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-deficit-spending-employment","category-inflation-economy","category-us-canada-countries-regions"],"yoast_head":"\nExtraordinary times of low unemployment and low inflation - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Extraordinary times of low unemployment and low inflation - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Unemployment fell to 3.7% for September, well below the long-term natural rate of unemployment. This normally signifies a tightening labor market, a precursor to higher inflation. But growth in average hourly earnings dipped slightly, to 2.75% for the past 12 months. Underlying inflationary forces remain subdued. 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During an ECB panel discussion Jerome Powell stated that he only expects the Fed to hit their 2.0% inflation target for core inflation in 2025. The Fed Chair says job creation and real wage gains are driving real incomes and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Unemployment, Average Hourly Earnings Growth","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-07-02-u3-wages.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-07-02-u3-wages.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-07-02-u3-wages.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":42875,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/07\/06\/fed-faces-three-uncomfortable-truths\/","url_meta":{"origin":17135,"position":2},"title":"Fed Faces Three Uncomfortable Truths","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 6, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"IMF deputy head, Gita Gopinath, recently highlighted three uncomfortable truths for monetary policy: Inflation is taking too long to get back to target. Financial conditions may not be tight enough and sustained high inflation could make the task of bringing inflation down more difficult. Central banks' price and financial stability\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"IMF deputy head Gita Gopinath","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/gita-gopinath-150x200.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":38318,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/10\/25\/the-fed-inflation-lessons-from-the-past\/","url_meta":{"origin":17135,"position":3},"title":"The Fed & Inflation: Lessons from the past","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 25, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"In 1974, the Fed, under Chairman Arthur Burns, succumbed to political pressure from the White House and cut rates while inflation was still strong. The FOMC had hiked rates to contain a burst in inflation from the 1973 Middle East oil embargo but then cut too early -- from 12.9%\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Fed Funds Rate & CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-24-cpi-ffr-70s.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-24-cpi-ffr-70s.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-24-cpi-ffr-70s.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":34739,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/06\/25\/jay-powell-is-selling-but-the-bond-market-isnt-buying\/","url_meta":{"origin":17135,"position":4},"title":"Jay Powell is selling but the bond market isn’t buying","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 25, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Fed Chairman Jerome Powell declared that the Fed's commitment to taming inflation is \"unconditional\": June 23 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve's commitment to reining in 40-year-high inflation is \"unconditional,\" Powell told lawmakers on Thursday, even as he acknowledged that sharply higher interest rates may push up unemployment. \"We really need\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Treasury Yield Curve","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-06-24-yields2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-06-24-yields2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-06-24-yields2.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-06-24-yields2.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":38490,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/11\/03\/fed-hikes-now-pain-comes-later\/","url_meta":{"origin":17135,"position":5},"title":"Fed hikes now, pain comes later","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 3, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Fed Chairman Jerome Powell announced a 75 basis point increase in the Fed funds target rate at his post-FOMC press conference today: \"Today, the FOMC raised our policy interest rate by 75 basis points, and we continue to anticipate that ongoing increases will be appropriate. We are moving our policy\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Fed Funds Rate","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-11-02-ffr-hike.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-11-02-ffr-hike.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-11-02-ffr-hike.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17135","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17135"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17135\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17136,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17135\/revisions\/17136"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17135"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17135"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17135"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}