{"id":17120,"date":"2018-10-04T07:23:44","date_gmt":"2018-10-04T07:23:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=17120"},"modified":"2018-10-04T07:23:44","modified_gmt":"2018-10-04T07:23:44","slug":"treasury-yields-confirm-bond-bear-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/10\/04\/treasury-yields-confirm-bond-bear-market\/","title":{"rendered":"Treasury yields confirm bond bear market"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>10-Year Treasury yields respected their new support level at 3.00%, confirming a primary advance.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-10-04-tnx.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"10-year Treasury Yield\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Breakout above 3.00% also completes a double-bottom reversal, signaling the end of a three-decade-long secular bull market in bonds.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-10-04-tnxq.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"LT 10-year Treasury Yield\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The yield differential between 10-year and 3-month Treasuries is declining but a flat yield curve does not warn of a recession. Only if the yield differential crosses below zero, with short-term yields rising faster than long-term, will there be a recession warning.<\/p>\n<p>Real returns on long-term bonds \u2014 the gap between the green and blue lines below \u2014 remain near record lows.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-09-21-yields-inflation.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"1981 to 2018: 10-Year Treasury Yields and GDP Implicit Price Deflator\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Only if the gap widens (real returns rise significantly) are we likely to see downward pressure on stock valuations, with falling price-earnings multiples.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>10-Year Treasury yields respected their new support level at 3.00%, confirming a primary advance. Breakout above 3.00% also completes a double-bottom reversal, signaling the end of a three-decade-long secular bull market in bonds. The yield differential between 10-year and 3-month Treasuries is declining but a flat yield curve does not warn of a recession. Only &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/10\/04\/treasury-yields-confirm-bond-bear-market\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Treasury yields confirm bond bear market&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,6,13,57,34],"tags":[70,3776,3859,3725],"class_list":["post-17120","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-fixed-income","category-inflation-economy","category-stock-markets","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-10-year-treasury-yields","tag-bond-bear-market","tag-bond-bull-market","tag-yield-curve"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Treasury yields confirm bond bear market - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Treasury yields confirm bond bear market - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"10-Year Treasury yields respected their new support level at 3.00%, confirming a primary advance. Breakout above 3.00% also completes a double-bottom reversal, signaling the end of a three-decade-long secular bull market in bonds. The yield differential between 10-year and 3-month Treasuries is declining but a flat yield curve does not warn of a recession. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients. Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit. 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Only &hellip; Continue reading \"Treasury yields confirm bond bear market\"","og_url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/10\/04\/treasury-yields-confirm-bond-bear-market\/","og_site_name":"the patient investor","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810","article_author":"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","article_published_time":"2018-10-04T07:23:44+00:00","og_image":[{"url":"http:\/\/static.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-10-04-tnx.png","type":"","width":"","height":""}],"author":"Colin Twiggs","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Colin Twiggs","Est. reading time":"1 minute"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/10\/04\/treasury-yields-confirm-bond-bear-market\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/10\/04\/treasury-yields-confirm-bond-bear-market\/"},"author":{"name":"Colin Twiggs","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454"},"headline":"Treasury yields confirm bond bear market","datePublished":"2018-10-04T07:23:44+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/10\/04\/treasury-yields-confirm-bond-bear-market\/"},"wordCount":120,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/10\/04\/treasury-yields-confirm-bond-bear-market\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-10-04-tnx.png","keywords":["10-Year Treasury Yields","Bond Bear Market","bond bull market","Yield Curve"],"articleSection":["Banks &amp; Interest Rates","Fixed Income","Inflation","Stock Markets","US &amp; Canada"],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/10\/04\/treasury-yields-confirm-bond-bear-market\/","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/10\/04\/treasury-yields-confirm-bond-bear-market\/","name":"Treasury yields confirm bond bear market - the patient investor","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/10\/04\/treasury-yields-confirm-bond-bear-market\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/10\/04\/treasury-yields-confirm-bond-bear-market\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-10-04-tnx.png","datePublished":"2018-10-04T07:23:44+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/10\/04\/treasury-yields-confirm-bond-bear-market\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/10\/04\/treasury-yields-confirm-bond-bear-market\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/10\/04\/treasury-yields-confirm-bond-bear-market\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-10-04-tnx.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-10-04-tnx.png"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/10\/04\/treasury-yields-confirm-bond-bear-market\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Treasury yields confirm bond bear market"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/","name":"The Patient Investor","description":"Smart. Strategic. Unfiltered. ","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization","name":"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1","contentUrl":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1","width":250,"height":250,"caption":"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor"]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454","name":"Colin Twiggs","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Colin Twiggs"},"description":"Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients. Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-4s8","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":17081,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/09\/22\/how-will-a-bond-bear-market-affect-stocks\/","url_meta":{"origin":17120,"position":0},"title":"How will a bond bear market affect stocks?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 22, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"10-Year Treasury yields broke out of their triangular consolidation at 3.00%, while the Trend Index recovered above zero signaling a fresh advance. Importance of resistance at 3.00% is best illustrated on a long-term monthly chart. Yields declined for more than three decades (since 1981) in a bond bull market but\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":14843,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/02\/18\/bond-spreads-bullish-for-us-less-so-australia\/","url_meta":{"origin":17120,"position":1},"title":"Bond spreads bullish for US, less so Australia","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"February 18, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Yield Curve The yield curve is one of the best predictors of US economic recessions. Every time the yield curve has turned negative in the last fifty years, a recession has followed. First of all, what is a yield curve? It is the plot of yields on bonds, normally Treasuries,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":18049,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/03\/30\/inverted-yield-curve-is-no-cause-for-panic-yet\/","url_meta":{"origin":17120,"position":2},"title":"Inverted yield curve is no cause for panic&#8230;.yet","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 30, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"10-Year Treasury yields continue to fall. A Trend Index peak below zero signals strong selling pressure (purchases of bonds).\u00a0 Target for the decline is primary support at 2.0%. The spread between 10-Year and 3-Month Treasury yields is at zero, warning that the yield curve is about to invert. While there\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":18037,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/03\/23\/sp-500-treasuries-warn-of-a-bear-market\/","url_meta":{"origin":17120,"position":3},"title":"S&#038;P 500: Treasuries warn of a bear market","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 23, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"10-Year Treasury yields plunged Friday, to close at 2.45%, warning of a decline to test primary support at 2.0%. The yield curve is now likely to turn negative. The 10-Year\/2-Year yield differential has already fallen to 0.13%. Below zero signals a negative yield curve, a reliable predictor of oncoming recession\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":18333,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/06\/08\/sp-500-short-term-versus-long-run\/","url_meta":{"origin":17120,"position":4},"title":"S&#038;P 500: Short-term versus long run","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 8, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"The market is excited at the prospect of Fed rate cuts (in response to the US-CCP trade war), with the S&P 500 headed for another test of its earlier high at 2950. A Trend Index trough above zero indicates short-term buying pressure. Falling bond yields, however, warn of a flight\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":24264,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/02\/25\/gold-and-the-yield-curve\/","url_meta":{"origin":17120,"position":5},"title":"Gold and the yield curve","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 25, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Fears of inflation have been driving up Treasury yields. In testimony before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell tried to hose down inflation fears: While price increases might accelerate in coming months, Powell said those increases are expected to be temporary and not a sign\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17120","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17120"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17120\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17122,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17120\/revisions\/17122"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17120"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17120"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17120"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}