{"id":17120,"date":"2018-10-04T07:23:44","date_gmt":"2018-10-04T07:23:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=17120"},"modified":"2018-10-04T07:23:44","modified_gmt":"2018-10-04T07:23:44","slug":"treasury-yields-confirm-bond-bear-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/10\/04\/treasury-yields-confirm-bond-bear-market\/","title":{"rendered":"Treasury yields confirm bond bear market"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>10-Year Treasury yields respected their new support level at 3.00%, confirming a primary advance.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-10-04-tnx.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"10-year Treasury Yield\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Breakout above 3.00% also completes a double-bottom reversal, signaling the end of a three-decade-long secular bull market in bonds.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-10-04-tnxq.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"LT 10-year Treasury Yield\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The yield differential between 10-year and 3-month Treasuries is declining but a flat yield curve does not warn of a recession. Only if the yield differential crosses below zero, with short-term yields rising faster than long-term, will there be a recession warning.<\/p>\n<p>Real returns on long-term bonds \u2014 the gap between the green and blue lines below \u2014 remain near record lows.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-09-21-yields-inflation.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"1981 to 2018: 10-Year Treasury Yields and GDP Implicit Price Deflator\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Only if the gap widens (real returns rise significantly) are we likely to see downward pressure on stock valuations, with falling price-earnings multiples.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>10-Year Treasury yields respected their new support level at 3.00%, confirming a primary advance. Breakout above 3.00% also completes a double-bottom reversal, signaling the end of a three-decade-long secular bull market in bonds. The yield differential between 10-year and 3-month Treasuries is declining but a flat yield curve does not warn of a recession. Only &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/10\/04\/treasury-yields-confirm-bond-bear-market\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Treasury yields confirm bond bear market&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,6,13,57,34],"tags":[70,3776,3859,3725],"class_list":["post-17120","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-fixed-income","category-inflation-economy","category-stock-markets","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-10-year-treasury-yields","tag-bond-bear-market","tag-bond-bull-market","tag-yield-curve"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Treasury yields confirm bond bear market - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Treasury yields confirm bond bear market - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"10-Year Treasury yields respected their new support level at 3.00%, confirming a primary advance. Breakout above 3.00% also completes a double-bottom reversal, signaling the end of a three-decade-long secular bull market in bonds. The yield differential between 10-year and 3-month Treasuries is declining but a flat yield curve does not warn of a recession. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\\\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/facebook.com\\\/people\\\/The-Patient-Investor\\\/61572934660810\\\/\",\"https:\\\/\\\/www.instagram.com\\\/colin_thepatientinvestor\",\"https:\\\/\\\/au.linkedin.com\\\/in\\\/colintwiggs\"],\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/author\\\/investor\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Treasury yields confirm bond bear market - the patient investor","robots":{"index":"noindex","follow":"follow"},"og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Treasury yields confirm bond bear market - the patient investor","og_description":"10-Year Treasury yields respected their new support level at 3.00%, confirming a primary advance. Breakout above 3.00% also completes a double-bottom reversal, signaling the end of a three-decade-long secular bull market in bonds. The yield differential between 10-year and 3-month Treasuries is declining but a flat yield curve does not warn of a recession. 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Strategic. Unfiltered. ","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization","name":"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1","contentUrl":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1","width":250,"height":250,"caption":"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor"]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454","name":"Colin Twiggs","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Colin Twiggs"},"description":"Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-4s8","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":17081,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/09\/22\/how-will-a-bond-bear-market-affect-stocks\/","url_meta":{"origin":17120,"position":0},"title":"How will a bond bear market affect stocks?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 22, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"10-Year Treasury yields broke out of their triangular consolidation at 3.00%, while the Trend Index recovered above zero signaling a fresh advance. Importance of resistance at 3.00% is best illustrated on a long-term monthly chart. Yields declined for more than three decades (since 1981) in a bond bull market but\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":14843,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/02\/18\/bond-spreads-bullish-for-us-less-so-australia\/","url_meta":{"origin":17120,"position":1},"title":"Bond spreads bullish for US, less so Australia","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"February 18, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Yield Curve The yield curve is one of the best predictors of US economic recessions. Every time the yield curve has turned negative in the last fifty years, a recession has followed. First of all, what is a yield curve? It is the plot of yields on bonds, normally Treasuries,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":18049,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/03\/30\/inverted-yield-curve-is-no-cause-for-panic-yet\/","url_meta":{"origin":17120,"position":2},"title":"Inverted yield curve is no cause for panic&#8230;.yet","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 30, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"10-Year Treasury yields continue to fall. A Trend Index peak below zero signals strong selling pressure (purchases of bonds).\u00a0 Target for the decline is primary support at 2.0%. The spread between 10-Year and 3-Month Treasury yields is at zero, warning that the yield curve is about to invert. While there\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":18037,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/03\/23\/sp-500-treasuries-warn-of-a-bear-market\/","url_meta":{"origin":17120,"position":3},"title":"S&#038;P 500: Treasuries warn of a bear market","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 23, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"10-Year Treasury yields plunged Friday, to close at 2.45%, warning of a decline to test primary support at 2.0%. The yield curve is now likely to turn negative. The 10-Year\/2-Year yield differential has already fallen to 0.13%. Below zero signals a negative yield curve, a reliable predictor of oncoming recession\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":18333,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/06\/08\/sp-500-short-term-versus-long-run\/","url_meta":{"origin":17120,"position":4},"title":"S&#038;P 500: Short-term versus long run","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 8, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"The market is excited at the prospect of Fed rate cuts (in response to the US-CCP trade war), with the S&P 500 headed for another test of its earlier high at 2950. A Trend Index trough above zero indicates short-term buying pressure. Falling bond yields, however, warn of a flight\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":31607,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/03\/22\/yield-curve-gymnastics\/","url_meta":{"origin":17120,"position":5},"title":"The yield curve recession warning","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 22, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"A great deal has been written in the past month above the flat 10-year\/2-year Treasury yield curve and the inevitability of recession if the slope turns negative. Wolf Richter sums up the problem: The weight of the Fed\u2019s gargantuan balance sheet is pushing down on long-term yields that the Fed\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"US Treasury Yield Curve","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/us-yield-curve-2022-03-21.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17120","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17120"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17120\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17122,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17120\/revisions\/17122"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17120"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17120"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17120"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}