{"id":17050,"date":"2018-09-14T02:06:02","date_gmt":"2018-09-14T02:06:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=17050"},"modified":"2018-12-05T04:54:36","modified_gmt":"2018-12-05T04:54:36","slug":"bwp-trust-bwp","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/09\/14\/bwp-trust-bwp\/","title":{"rendered":"BWP Trust (BWP)"},"content":{"rendered":"

Stock: BWP Trust<\/strong>
\nSymbol: BWP<\/strong>
\nExchange: ASX
\nFinancial Year-end: 30 June
\nLatest price: $3.39<\/strong>
\nMarket cap: $2.17 billion AUD
\nDate: 13 September 2018<\/p>\n

Sector: Real Estate
\nIndustry: Retail REIT
\nInvestment Theme: Dividends & Growth<\/p>\n

Company Profile<\/h2>\n

BWP Trust is a real estate investment trust (REIT) established in 1998 that invests in and manages commercial properties throughout Australia.<\/p>\n

Wesfarmers Limited owns approximately 24.75% of the issued units in the Trust. The responsible entity for managing the Trust, BWP Management Limited, is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Wesfarmers.<\/p>\n

BWP owns a portfolio of 79 stores in Australia. The majority of the properties are large format retail properties leased to Bunnings Group Limited, a subsidiary of Wesfarmers. Eight of the properties have adjacent retail showrooms, leased to other retailers and there is one stand-alone showroom property.<\/p>\n

Markets<\/h3>\n

Over 92% of rental income is from Bunnings (Wesfarmers).<\/p>\n

98.8% of the portfolio was leased, with two properties unoccupied, at 30 June 2018.<\/p>\n

Of the 79 properties, 13 are expected to be vacated by Bunnings (in the process of relocating to a nearby site, including some ex-Masters sites), including the two currently vacant. Five of the 13 properties are being sold and 8 are being re-positioned.<\/p>\n

Financial performance<\/h3>\n

Revenue Growth<\/h4>\n

Annual revenue continued to rise, with 2.5% like-for-like rental growth in FY18 while total rent received grew by 0.35%.<\/p>\n

\"Revenue<\/p>\n

Long leases provide stability and growth.\u00a0 Weighted average lease expiry (WALE) is 4.5 years. Initial Bunnings leases are typically 10 to 15 years with further options of 5 or 6 years.<\/p>\n

Approximately 59% of rental income are subject to annual CPI adjustment and 41% to fixed annual adjustments,\u00a0 typically reviewed to market every 5 years.<\/p>\n

Rents are generally not linked to tenants’ turnover, but retailing conditions can impact on market rents. FY19 may bring some rent free periods and capital expenditure as 8 properties are re-positioned following Bunnings exit.<\/p>\n

Earnings per share<\/h4>\n

Earnings include net unrealized gains in fair value of investment properties. Net increase in fair value of $67.4 million for FY18 is significantly lower than $111.3 million in FY17, accounting for the substantial drop in EPS.<\/p>\n

\"Earnings<\/p>\n

Excluding unrealized gains, EPS shows an increase of 0.65% in FY18.<\/p>\n

Distributions, excluding capital, were 17.62 cents per share for FY18, an increase of 0.65%.<\/p>\n

Historical growth (CAGR) in distributions from 1999 to 2018 is 3.5% p.a.<\/p>\n

Cash Flow<\/h4>\n

Cash flow from operating activities and free cash flow both increased by 0.83% in FY18.<\/p>\n

\"Net<\/p>\n

Capital structure<\/h4>\n

Net debt to equity of 25% is manageable.<\/p>\n

\"Net<\/p>\n

Weaknesses<\/h3>\n

BWP\u2019s earnings are strongly linked to the ongoing success of Wesfarmers\u2019 Bunnings business and their underlying markets: home improvement and outdoor living. While this business has a strong track record, declining housing prices are expected to weigh on performance.<\/p>\n

Valuation<\/h2>\n

Net tangible assets (NTA) at FY18 were $2.85 per share. Decline in the weighted average capitalization rate to 6.48% in FY18 (FY17: 6.59%) accounted for most of the 4.0% increase in NTA.<\/p>\n

We project current distributions of 17.62 cents (excluding capital distributions) will grow at a long-term rate of 2.5% per year, giving an expected annual return of 7.7% using Gordon’s Growth Model, or 8.1% including tax benefits.<\/p>\n

Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n

Momentum (50-week) has risen to a modest 12%, while Trend Index (50-week) only recently crossed above zero. BWP has appreciated at an average of 6.0% CAGR since 1998.<\/p>\n

\"Long-term\"<\/p>\n

The shorter term Trend Index (21-day) formed a bullish trough near zero in late August\/early September. Another trough at or above zero should provide a good entry point.<\/p>\n

\"Short-term\"<\/p>\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\n

We consider BWP to be over-priced at present: $2.95 would offer a long-term projected investment return of 8.5%, or 8.95% including tax advantages. Hold and accumulate if price dips below $3.00 per unit.<\/p>\n

Disclosure<\/h4>\n

Staff of The Patient Investor may directly or indirectly own shares in the above company.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Stock: BWP Trust Symbol: BWP Exchange: ASX Financial Year-end: 30 June Latest price: $3.39 Market cap: $2.17 billion AUD Date: 13 September 2018 Sector: Real Estate Industry: Retail REIT Investment Theme: Dividends & Growth Company Profile BWP Trust is a real estate investment trust (REIT) established in 1998 that invests in and manages commercial properties … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “BWP Trust (BWP)”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3799],"tags":[3785,3925,3920,3915,3914],"class_list":["post-17050","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-asx-growth","tag-bunnings","tag-bwp","tag-bwp-trust","tag-wes","tag-wesfarmers-ltd"],"yoast_head":"\nBWP Trust (BWP) - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"BWP Trust (BWP) - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Stock: BWP Trust Symbol: BWP Exchange: ASX Financial Year-end: 30 June Latest price: $3.39 Market cap: $2.17 billion AUD Date: 13 September 2018 Sector: Real Estate Industry: Retail REIT Investment Theme: Dividends & Growth Company Profile BWP Trust is a real estate investment trust (REIT) established in 1998 that invests in and manages commercial properties … Continue reading "BWP Trust (BWP)"\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/09\/14\/bwp-trust-bwp\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2018-09-14T02:06:02+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2018-12-05T04:54:36+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/static.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/bwp_1_revenue_2018-9-13.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/09\\\/14\\\/bwp-trust-bwp\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/09\\\/14\\\/bwp-trust-bwp\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"BWP Trust (BWP)\",\"datePublished\":\"2018-09-14T02:06:02+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2018-12-05T04:54:36+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/09\\\/14\\\/bwp-trust-bwp\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":585,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/09\\\/14\\\/bwp-trust-bwp\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2018\\\/bwp_1_revenue_2018-9-13.png\",\"keywords\":[\"Bunnings\",\"BWP\",\"BWP Trust\",\"WES\",\"Wesfarmers Ltd\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Australian Growth\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/09\\\/14\\\/bwp-trust-bwp\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/09\\\/14\\\/bwp-trust-bwp\\\/\",\"name\":\"BWP Trust (BWP) - 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-4r0","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":20102,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/03\/24\/bwp-trust-bwp-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":17050,"position":0},"title":"BWP Trust (BWP)","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 24, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Stock: BWP Trust Exchange: ASX Symbol: BWP Date: March 24, 2020 Latest price: $3.25 AUD Market Cap: $1.754 billion Fair Value Estimate: $2.59 Forward P\/E: 14.8 Payback Period: 13 years Financial Y\/E: June 30th Recommendation: HOLD Sector: REITs Industry: Industrial REITs Investment Theme: Dividends & Growth Structural Trends: none Summary\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australian Growth"","block_context":{"text":"Australian Growth","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investment-allocation\/asx-growth\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17928,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/02\/26\/wesfarmers-ltd-wes-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":17050,"position":1},"title":"Wesfarmers Ltd (WES)","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 26, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Stock: Wesfarmers Ltd Exchange: ASX Symbol: WES Date: February 26, 2019 Latest price: $32.70 Market Cap: $36.957 bn Fair Value Estimate: $28.25 Forward P\/E: 16.4 Fair Value Payback: N\/A Financial Y\/E: June 30 Rating: Sell Sector: Consumer Cyclical Industry: Home Improvement Stores Investment Theme: Growth & Dividends Structural Trends: N\/A\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australian Growth"","block_context":{"text":"Australian Growth","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investment-allocation\/asx-growth\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17003,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/09\/12\/wesfarmers-ltd-wes\/","url_meta":{"origin":17050,"position":2},"title":"Wesfarmers Ltd (WES)","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 12, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Stock: Wesfarmers Ltd Symbol: WES Exchange: ASX Financial Year-end: 30 June Latest price: $51.34 Market cap: $58.1 billion AUD Date: 11 September 2018 Sector: Consumer Staples Industry: Food & Staples Retailing Investment Theme: Dividends & Growth Company Profile From its origin in 1914 as a Western Australian farmers' cooperative, Wesfarmers\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australian Growth"","block_context":{"text":"Australian Growth","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investment-allocation\/asx-growth\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":16183,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/04\/16\/avoiding-the-hubris-trap\/","url_meta":{"origin":17050,"position":3},"title":"Avoiding the hubris trap","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 16, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Great example of how even the most professional management teams can fall into the hubris trap. Michael Chaney describes to The Age how Wesfarmers burnt a billion dollars on the highly successful Bunnings hardware chain's expansion into the UK market: Bunnings Warehouse by Bidgee - Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":19051,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/12\/asx-hesitates-in-its-downward-slide\/","url_meta":{"origin":17050,"position":4},"title":"ASX hesitates in its downward slide","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 12, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"There is a hint of optimism in the air, with the year-on-year decline in housing prices slowing, to around -5% nationally, on the back of lower interest rates. The ASX 200 hesitated in its downward slide but is still likely to test support at 6400. Breach would offer a target\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17466,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/11\/22\/wesfarmers-coles-demerger\/","url_meta":{"origin":17050,"position":5},"title":"Wesfarmers – Coles Demerger","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 22, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Wesfarmers announced their intention to demerge Coles, along with senior leadership changes, on 16 March 2018. Wesfarmers will retain 15 per cent of Coles and 50 per cent of flybuys. Eligible shareholders will receive one Coles share for every Wesfarmers share that they hold. \"Demerging Coles enhances Wesfarmers\u2019 prospects of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australian Growth"","block_context":{"text":"Australian Growth","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investment-allocation\/asx-growth\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17050","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17050"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17050\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17056,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17050\/revisions\/17056"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17050"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17050"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17050"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}