{"id":17029,"date":"2018-09-10T04:13:22","date_gmt":"2018-09-10T04:13:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=17029"},"modified":"2018-09-10T04:13:22","modified_gmt":"2018-09-10T04:13:22","slug":"wage-increases-havent-made-a-dent-in-profits","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/09\/10\/wage-increases-havent-made-a-dent-in-profits\/","title":{"rendered":"Wage increases haven’t made a dent in profits"},"content":{"rendered":"

Average hourly earnings growth continues to rise, albeit at a leisurely pace. Average hourly earnings for all employees in the private sector grew at 2.92% over the last 12 months, while production and nonsupervisory employee earnings grew at 2.80% over the same period. The Fed is likely to adopt a more restrictive stance if hourly earnings growth, representing underlying inflationary pressures, exceeds 3.0%. So far the message from Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been business as usual<\/i>, with rate hikes at a measured pace.<\/p>\n

\"Average<\/p>\n

Rising wage rates to-date have been unable, up to Q2 2018, to make a dent in corporate profits. Corporate profits are near record highs at 13.4%, while employee compensation is historically low at 69.5% of net value added. Past recessions have been heralded by rising employee compensation and falling corporate profits. What we are witnessing this time is unusual, with compensation rising, admittedly from record low levels, while profits rebounded after a low in Q4 2016. There is no indication that this will end anytime soon.<\/p>\n

\"Corporate<\/p>\n

Weaker values (1.17%) on the Leading Index from the Philadelphia Fed reflect a flatter yield curve. A fall below 1.0% would be cause for concern.<\/p>\n

\"Philadelphia<\/p>\n

Our surrogate for real GDP, Total Payrolls x Average Weekly Hours Worked, is lagging behind recent GDP growth (1.9% compared to 2.9%) but both are rising.<\/p>\n

\"Real<\/p>\n

Another good sign is that personal consumption expenditure, one of the key drivers of economic growth, is on the mend. Services turned up in Q2 2018 after a three-year decline. Durable goods remain strong. Nondurables are weaker but this may reflect a reclassification issue. New products such as Apple Music and Netflix are classified as sevices but replace sales of goods such as CDs and videos.<\/p>\n

\"Personal<\/p>\n

There is no cause for concern yet, but we will need to keep a weather-eye on the yield curve<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux, and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected.<\/p>\n

~ George Soros<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Average hourly earnings growth continues to rise, albeit at a leisurely pace. Average hourly earnings for all employees in the private sector grew at 2.92% over the last 12 months, while production and nonsupervisory employee earnings grew at 2.80% over the same period. The Fed is likely to adopt a more restrictive stance if hourly … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Wage increases haven’t made a dent in profits”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,46,13,34],"tags":[314,831,1224,2645,2658,2870,3588],"class_list":["post-17029","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-deficit-spending-employment","category-inflation-economy","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-average-hourly-earnings","tag-corporate-profits","tag-employee-compensation","tag-personal-consumption","tag-philadelphia-fed-leading-index","tag-real-gdp","tag-value-added"],"yoast_head":"\nWage increases haven't made a dent in profits - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Wage increases haven't made a dent in profits - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Average hourly earnings growth continues to rise, albeit at a leisurely pace. 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He has predicted a series of interest rate hikes will tip the US into a 2018 recession.\"Every recession\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":15585,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/07\/07\/us-adds-222-thousand-jobs\/","url_meta":{"origin":17029,"position":1},"title":"US adds 222 thousand jobs","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 7, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"From the Wall Street Journal: U.S. employers picked up their pace of hiring in June. Nonfarm payrolls rose by a seasonally adjusted 222,000 from the prior month, the Labor Department said. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4% from 4.3% the prior month as more people joined the workforce..... Source:\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17415,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/11\/17\/two-years-is-a-long-time\/","url_meta":{"origin":17029,"position":2},"title":"Two years is a long time","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 17, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"An outcome where neither Republicans nor Democrats control both chambers provides markets with reassurance that nothing too radical will emerge, making the outlook for the next two years appear more predictable and the settings more stable......But the complacency might be premature. ~ Stephen Bartholomeusz With Democrats in control, Donald Trump\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":25622,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/05\/06\/sp-500-earnings-boost\/","url_meta":{"origin":17029,"position":3},"title":"S&P 500 earnings boost","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 6, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"With 70.5% of companies in the S&P 500 having reported for the March quarter, projected earnings of $44.32 are 26.6% higher than March 2019. Forecast earnings of $46.09 for December 2021, while a lot less precise, are even better at +29.7% compared to Q4 of 2019. If earnings projections are\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":11979,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/06\/25\/are-us-stocks-really-over-valued\/","url_meta":{"origin":17029,"position":4},"title":"Are US stocks really over-valued?","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"June 25, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Stock Market Capitalization Let us start with Warren Buffet's favorite market valuation ratio: stock market capitalization to GDP. I have modified this slightly, replacing GDP with GNP, because the former excludes offshore earnings \u2014 a significant factor for multinationals. The ratio of stock market capitalization to GNP now exceeds the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"US stock market capitalization to GNP","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-06-25-marketcap-gnp.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-06-25-marketcap-gnp.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-06-25-marketcap-gnp.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13774,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/06\/25\/are-us-stocks-really-over-valued-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":17029,"position":5},"title":"Are US stocks really over-valued?","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"June 25, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Let us start with Warren Buffet's favorite market valuation ratio: stock market capitalization to GDP. I have modified this slightly, replacing GDP with GNP, because the former excludes offshore earnings \u2014 a significant factor for multinationals. The ratio of stock market capitalization to GNP now exceeds the highs of 2005\/2006,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Market Insights"","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"US stock market capitalization to GNP","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-06-25-marketcap-gnp.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-06-25-marketcap-gnp.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-06-25-marketcap-gnp.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17029","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17029"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17029\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17030,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17029\/revisions\/17030"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17029"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17029"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17029"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}