{"id":17014,"date":"2018-09-08T00:58:17","date_gmt":"2018-09-08T00:58:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=17014"},"modified":"2018-09-08T01:46:50","modified_gmt":"2018-09-08T01:46:50","slug":"east-to-west-bonds-tariffs-hurt-crude-prices-and-developing-markets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/09\/08\/east-to-west-bonds-tariffs-hurt-crude-prices-and-developing-markets\/","title":{"rendered":"East to West: Bonds & tariffs hurt developing markets and crude prices"},"content":{"rendered":"

10-Year Treasury yields are consolidating in a triangle below long-term resistance at 3.00 percent. Breakout above 3.00 would signal a primary advance, ending the decades-long bull market in bonds. This would have a heavy impact on developing economies, including China, with a stronger Dollar forcing higher interest rates.<\/p>\n

\"10-year<\/p>\n

A Trend Index trough above zero would signal buying pressure and a likely upward breakout.<\/p>\n

Crude oil prices, as a consequence of higher interest rates and the threat of trade tariffs, are starting to form a top. Bearish divergence on the Trend Index warns of selling pressure. Breach of support at $65\/barrel would signal reversal to a primary down-trend.<\/p>\n

\"Nymex<\/p>\n

Commodity prices are leading, breach of support at 85.50 already having signaled a primary down-trend.<\/p>\n

\"DJ-UBS<\/p>\n

China’s Shanghai Composite Index is in a primary down-trend. Trend Index peaks below zero warn of selling pressure. Breach of support at 2700 is likely. The long-term target is the 2014 low at 2000.<\/p>\n

\"Shanghai<\/p>\n

Germany’s DAX is headed for a test of primary support at 11,800. Descending peaks on the Trend Index warn of secondary selling pressure. Breach of primary support is uncertain but would offer a target of 10,500.<\/p>\n

\"DAX\"<\/p>\n

The Footsie also shows secondary selling pressure on the Trend Index, warning of a test of primary support at 6900\/7000.<\/p>\n

\"FTSE<\/p>\n

In stark contrast, North American tech stocks have made huge gains in the last four months, but are now retracing to test support. Breach of the rising trendline and support at 7400 would warn of a correction; a test of the long-term rising trendline at 7000 the likely target.<\/p>\n

\"Nasdaq<\/p>\n

The S&P 500 has also made new highs. Penetration of the rising trendline would warn of a correction to the LT trendline at 2800.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

North America leads the global recovery, developing markets including China are falling, while Europe is sandwiched in the middle, with potential loss of trade from East and West if a trade war erupts.<\/p>\n

From the AFR today<\/a>:<\/p>\n

President Donald Trump said he’s ready to impose tariffs on an additional $US267 billion in Chinese goods on short notice, on top of a proposed $US200 billion that his administration is putting the final touches on.<\/p>\n

“….I will say this: the world trading system is broken.” Trump is “dead serious” in his determination to push China to reform its trade policies, [White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow] added.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Can’t say he didn’t warn us.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10-Year Treasury yields are consolidating in a triangle below long-term resistance at 3.00 percent. Breakout above 3.00 would signal a primary advance, ending the decades-long bull market in bonds. This would have a heavy impact on developing economies, including China, with a stronger Dollar forcing higher interest rates. A Trend Index trough above zero would … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “East to West: Bonds & tariffs hurt developing markets and crude prices”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,41,43,44,57,33,34],"tags":[70,947,1064,1481,2401,2527,3010,3100],"class_list":["post-17014","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-china-hk","category-commodities-gold-commodities","category-crude-oil-natural-gas","category-stock-markets","category-uk-europe-countries-regions","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-10-year-treasury-yields","tag-dax","tag-dj-ubs-commodity-index","tag-ftse-100","tag-nasdaq-100","tag-nymex-light-crude","tag-sp-500","tag-shanghai-composite-index"],"yoast_head":"\nEast to West: Bonds & tariffs hurt developing markets and crude prices - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"East to West: Bonds & tariffs hurt developing markets and crude prices - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"10-Year Treasury yields are consolidating in a triangle below long-term resistance at 3.00 percent. Breakout above 3.00 would signal a primary advance, ending the decades-long bull market in bonds. This would have a heavy impact on developing economies, including China, with a stronger Dollar forcing higher interest rates. 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Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero strengthens\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Crude Oil & Natural Gas"","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil & Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Dollar Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-21-dxy.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-21-dxy.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-21-dxy.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":8823,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/12\/04\/gold-support-at-1200\/","url_meta":{"origin":17014,"position":1},"title":"Gold support at $1200","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"December 4, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Gold The long tail on this week's candle reflects buying support for spot gold at $1200\/ounce. Recovery above $1250 would suggest another rally to $1350. But the 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak below zero warns of a down-trend. And breach of primary support at $1200 would confirm. * Target calculation: 1250\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Commodities"","block_context":{"text":"Commodities","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/commodities-gold-commodities\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":8774,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/11\/20\/rising-interest-rates-drive-gold-through-support\/","url_meta":{"origin":17014,"position":2},"title":"Rising interest rates drive gold through support","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"November 20, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"The yield on ten-year Treasury Notes followed through above 2.75, indicating a fresh primary advance, with a target of 3.50 percent*. Breakout above 3.00 percent would confirm. Completion of a 13-week Twiggs Momentum trough above zero (recovery above say 30%) would strengthen the signal. Reversal below the rising trendline is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Commodities"","block_context":{"text":"Commodities","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/commodities-gold-commodities\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":54504,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/06\/15\/weakening-ust-yields-and-crude-oil-bullish-for-stocks\/","url_meta":{"origin":17014,"position":3},"title":"Weakening UST yields and crude oil bullish for stocks","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 15, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Long-term Treasury yields are weakening, which should be bullish for stocks, bonds and precious metals. A strong correction in crude oil and commodities warn that China is leading a global economic slow-down. The University of Michigan consumer survey is fairly positive, showing an up-trend in consumer sentiment and a down-trend\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-06-14-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-06-14-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-06-14-tnx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":8805,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/11\/27\/gold-1200-next\/","url_meta":{"origin":17014,"position":4},"title":"Gold: $1200 next?","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"November 27, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Spot gold consolidating in a narrow band below support at $1250\/ounce suggests a test of $1200. The 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak below zero strengthens the signal. Breakout below the June low ($1200) would confirm a primary down-trend. Recovery above $1260 is unlikely, but would indicate a rally to $1350. *\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Commodities"","block_context":{"text":"Commodities","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/commodities-gold-commodities\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":10388,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/07\/24\/gold-retreats-as-dollar-strengthens-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":17014,"position":5},"title":"Gold retreats as Dollar strengthens","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 24, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Treasury yields weaken further The Dollar continues to strengthen Inflation target remains at 2% p.a. Gold retreats Interest Rates and the Dollar The yield on ten-year Treasury Notes broke support at 2.50 percent, indicating a test of 2.00 percent*. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a primary down-trend. Follow-through\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Crude Oil & Natural Gas"","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil & Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yields","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-24-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-24-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-24-tnx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17014","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17014"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17014\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17021,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17014\/revisions\/17021"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17014"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17014"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17014"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}