{"id":16881,"date":"2018-08-24T07:52:36","date_gmt":"2018-08-24T07:52:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=16881"},"modified":"2018-08-25T23:36:27","modified_gmt":"2018-08-25T23:36:27","slug":"apn-outdoor-apo-sell","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/08\/24\/apn-outdoor-apo-sell\/","title":{"rendered":"APN Outdoor (APO) – Sell"},"content":{"rendered":"

Stock: APN Outdoor<\/strong>
\nSymbol: APO<\/strong>
\nExchange: ASX
\nFinancial Year-end: 31 December
\nLatest price: $6.70<\/strong>
\nDate: August 24, 2018<\/p>\n

Sector: Consumer Cyclical
\nIndustry: Marketing Services
\nInvestment Theme: Structural Trends<\/p>\n

APO is positioned to benefit from the rise of technology, with fast-growing revenues from digital billboard advertising.<\/p>\n

Company Profile<\/h2>\n

APN Outdoor is a leading outdoor advertising company with 28% market share in Australia and 30% in New Zealand.<\/p>\n

Competitors & Markets<\/h3>\n

APO will rank second behind the combined 50% market share of oOhmedia and Adshel if their proposed merger goes ahead.<\/p>\n

APO is active in billboards (55% of total revenue), transit (26%), airports (11%) and rail (8%). Digital advertising grew 18% in FY18 and contributes 42% of total revenue, with 134 large format digital panels across Australia & New Zealand. Non-digital advertising declined 5% due to loss of the Melbourne Yarra trams contract (won by JCDecaux).<\/p>\n

Outdoor advertising sites are secured by 5- to 10-year leasehold contracts and may be subject to competitive bidding on renewal of larger sites.<\/p>\n

Financial performance<\/h3>\n

Revenue Growth<\/h4>\n

Revenue growth slowed to 4% in HY18, compared to an average of 6.7% over the previous two years.<\/p>\n

\"Revenue<\/p>\n

Earnings per share (right-hand scale) declined slightly from FY16.<\/p>\n

Margins<\/h4>\n

EPS decline is a result of tighter margins.<\/p>\n

\"EBT<\/p>\n

Cash Flow<\/h4>\n

Cash flows declined relative to net income as APO invested in digital displays.<\/p>\n

\"Net<\/p>\n

Dividends<\/h4>\n

APO declared fully franked dividends of 7 cents (H1 FY18) and 12.5 cents (H2 FY17), amounting to a 2.9% dividend yield.<\/p>\n

\"EPS<\/p>\n

Capital structure<\/h4>\n

APO uses debt to fund new digital billboards, maintaining a net debt to equity ratio of 35%. This could render it vulnerable in an economic down-turn.<\/p>\n

\"Net<\/p>\n

Weaknesses<\/h3>\n

Outdoor advertising revenues can be volatile over the economic cycle.<\/p>\n

Recent management changes leave APO with new leadership after the retirement of CEO Richard Herring (having led the group since 2004) in September 2017 and CFO Wayne Castle in January 2018.<\/p>\n

Takeover Offer<\/h2>\n

French outdoor advertising giant JCDecaux tabled a AUD 6.70 per share cash offer in June 2018, to acquire 100% of APO. The offer was recommended by the APO Board of Directors and is likely to go to a shareholder vote in October 2018.<\/p>\n

The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission\u2019s (ACCC) cleared the proposed acquisition on August 23 but the deal still remains subject to a number of conditions, including approval of APN Outdoor shareholders, court approval, the Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) and the New Zealand Overseas Investment Office (OIO) approval, and the satisfaction or waiver of certain other conditions outlined in the Scheme Implementation Agreement lodged with the ASX on 26 June 2018.<\/p>\n

APO is expected to declare a fully franked special dividend of up to $0.30 per share just before the takeover. The AUD 6.70 offer per share would be reduced by the cash amount of the dividend but shareholders would benefit from up to $0.13 per share in franking credits.<\/p>\n

Valuation<\/h2>\n

With expected annual revenue and earnings growth of 7%, APO is projected to deliver low annual returns of 6%, or 7.6% after franking credits.<\/p>\n

Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n

APO broke resistance at $6.00 after the JCDecaux offer. Twiggs Momentum (50-week) and Trend Index (50-week) recovered to positive territory but remain weak.<\/p>\n

\"Twiggs<\/p>\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\n

Sell at $6.70. Prospects of 13 cents in franking credits are not sufficient incentive to hang on to APO.
\n[**Note added 26\/08\/18: Clarification is required regarding the upcoming dividend of 7 cents plus 3 cents franking credit. Sellers prior to the ex date of September 5th will forego the dividend. Sellers after the ex date are likely to receive a price, probably 7 cents lower. They may wish to wait until September 5th for the benefit of the 3 cents franking credit but need to weigh this against the increased uncertainty.]<\/p>\n

Disclosure<\/h4>\n

Staff of The Patient Investor may directly or indirectly own shares in the above company.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Stock: APN Outdoor Symbol: APO Exchange: ASX Financial Year-end: 31 December Latest price: $6.70 Date: August 24, 2018 Sector: Consumer Cyclical Industry: Marketing Services Investment Theme: Structural Trends APO is positioned to benefit from the rise of technology, with fast-growing revenues from digital billboard advertising. Company Profile APN Outdoor is a leading outdoor advertising company … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “APN Outdoor (APO) – Sell”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,3799],"tags":[3892,3893],"class_list":["post-16881","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-asx-growth","tag-apn-outdoor","tag-apo"],"yoast_head":"\nAPN Outdoor (APO) - Sell - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"APN Outdoor (APO) - Sell - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Stock: APN Outdoor Symbol: APO Exchange: ASX Financial Year-end: 31 December Latest price: $6.70 Date: August 24, 2018 Sector: Consumer Cyclical Industry: Marketing Services Investment Theme: Structural Trends APO is positioned to benefit from the rise of technology, with fast-growing revenues from digital billboard advertising. 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The selection is based on my investment strategy and is more diverse than the International Growth portfolio, including stocks that generate strong dividend income and cyclical gold and resources stocks. Reasons for this are\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australian Growth"","block_context":{"text":"Australian Growth","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investment-allocation\/asx-growth\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":28288,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/10\/12\/recent-breakouts-3\/","url_meta":{"origin":16881,"position":2},"title":"Recent breakouts","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 12, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Our recent breakout scan returned a number of promising stocks for review. Australia Orica (ORI) \u2013 rising Trend Index indicates buying pressure. Follow-through above 14.50 would complete a double bottom reversal. Canada Precision Drilling (PD) \u2013 Trend Index trough above zero indicates strong buying pressure. UK Metro Bank (MTRO) \u2013\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":37815,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/09\/29\/alphabet-inc-googl-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":16881,"position":3},"title":"Alphabet Inc (GOOGL)","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 29, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Stock: Alphabet Inc Exchange: Nasdaq Symbol: \u00a0GOOGL Date: 28-Sep-22 Latest price: $100.05 Market Cap: $1.3 T Fair Value: $111.94 Forward DY: - Payback (Years): 13 Financial Y\/E: 31-Dec-22 Rating: HOLD Sector: Technology Industry: Internet Content & Information Investment Theme: Long-term Growth Structural Trends: Online Services Summary Alphabet Inc (GOOGL) is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "International Growth"","block_context":{"text":"International Growth","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investment-allocation\/international-growth\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":16829,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/08\/15\/aristocrat-leisure-all\/","url_meta":{"origin":16881,"position":4},"title":"Aristocrat Leisure (ALL)","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 15, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Stock: Aristocrat Leisure Symbol: ALL Exchange: ASX Financial Year-end: 30 September 2018 Latest price: $31.11 Date: August 10, 2018 Company Profile Aristocrat Leisure designs and develops electronic gaming machines, video lottery terminal systems, and casino-management systems. Competitors & Markets The company is one of the top three global manufacturers and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17050,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/09\/14\/bwp-trust-bwp\/","url_meta":{"origin":16881,"position":5},"title":"BWP Trust (BWP)","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 14, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Stock: BWP Trust Symbol: BWP Exchange: ASX Financial Year-end: 30 June Latest price: $3.39 Market cap: $2.17 billion AUD Date: 13 September 2018 Sector: Real Estate Industry: Retail REIT Investment Theme: Dividends & Growth Company Profile BWP Trust is a real estate investment trust (REIT) established in 1998 that invests\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australian Growth"","block_context":{"text":"Australian Growth","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investment-allocation\/asx-growth\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16881","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16881"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16881\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16898,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16881\/revisions\/16898"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16881"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16881"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16881"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}