{"id":16843,"date":"2018-08-18T01:47:44","date_gmt":"2018-08-18T01:47:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=16843"},"modified":"2018-08-18T08:46:46","modified_gmt":"2018-08-18T08:46:46","slug":"sp-500-volatility-falls","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/08\/18\/sp-500-volatility-falls\/","title":{"rendered":"S&#038;P 500 volatility falls"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.philadelphiafed.org\/research-and-data\/regional-economy\/indexes\/leading\">Philadelphia Fed Leading Index<\/a> at 1.42 for June 2018 maintains a healthy margin above the 1% level that would warn of a potential slow-down.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-08-17-leading.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Philadelphia Fed Leading Index\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The picture reinforces a steeply-climbing Freight Transportation Index, indicating strong economic activity.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-08-17-freight.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Freight Transportation Index\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Concerns that the economy may over-heat, spiking inflation, are not reflected in strong growth in average hourly earnings. The Fed has done a good job of containing money supply growth, with growth in the broad money supply (MZM plus time deposits) closely tracking nominal GDP.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-08-17-gdp-money.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Nominal GDP and Money Supply Growth\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Credit and money supply expansion at faster rates than nominal GDP have in the past flagged an overheating economy and higher inflation, leading to a recession when the Fed attempts to curb inflation.<\/p>\n<p>We are in stage 3 of a bull market but there are few signs that the economy will slow or earnings will fall.<\/p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 respected its new support level at 2800, confirming an advance to 3000. Declining Twiggs Volatility (21-day) signals that market risk is low and we can expect business as usual.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-08-17-spx-vty.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The NASDAQ 100 continues to warn of a correction, with bearish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow. This is secondary in nature, because of the indicator&#8217;s position relative to the zero line, but could test support at 7000.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-08-17-ndx.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Nasdaq 100\" \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Philadelphia Fed Leading Index at 1.42 for June 2018 maintains a healthy margin above the 1% level that would warn of a potential slow-down. The picture reinforces a steeply-climbing Freight Transportation Index, indicating strong economic activity. Concerns that the economy may over-heat, spiking inflation, are not reflected in strong growth in average hourly earnings. &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/08\/18\/sp-500-volatility-falls\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;S&#038;P 500 volatility falls&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,13,57,34],"tags":[3836,3877,2401,2485,2658,3010],"class_list":["post-16843","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-inflation-economy","category-stock-markets","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-broad-money-supply","tag-freight-transportation-index","tag-nasdaq-100","tag-nominal-gdp","tag-philadelphia-fed-leading-index","tag-sp-500"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>S&amp;P 500 volatility falls - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"S&amp;P 500 volatility falls - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Philadelphia Fed Leading Index at 1.42 for June 2018 maintains a healthy margin above the 1% level that would warn of a potential slow-down. The picture reinforces a steeply-climbing Freight Transportation Index, indicating strong economic activity. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients. Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients. Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-4nF","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":18091,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/04\/05\/sp-500-expect-slower-earnings-growth-but-no-sign-of-recession\/","url_meta":{"origin":16843,"position":0},"title":"S&#038;P 500: Expect slower earnings growth but no sign of recession","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 5, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Credit growth in the US above 5% shows no signs of tighter credit conditions from an inverted yield curve. Growth in the broad money supply (MZM plus time deposits) has also not slowed, remaining close to 5%. Growth in hours worked has slowed to 1.71%, suggesting that real GDP growth\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":16007,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/10\/09\/how-long-will-the-bull-market-last\/","url_meta":{"origin":16843,"position":1},"title":"How long will the bull market last?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 9, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"US markets are clearly in a bull phase, with the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq making strong gains. A rising Freight Transport Index highlights the broad up-turn in economic activity. Low corporate bond spreads -- lowest investment grade (Baa) minus 10-year Treasury yield -- and VIX below 15 both reflect\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":16373,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/06\/27\/australias-debt-bomb\/","url_meta":{"origin":16843,"position":2},"title":"Australia&#8217;s Debt Bomb","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 27, 2018","format":"video","excerpt":"Martin North interviews economist John Adams about structural imbalances in the Australian (and global) economy. \"I do think they will try to print their way out of this problem.\" https:\/\/youtu.be\/5hJpC3bmzZU Hat tip to Macrobusiness. Comment: I do take issue with the comparison of CPI to Broad Money growth. Broad money\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/img.youtube.com\/vi\/5hJpC3bmzZU\/0.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":16662,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/07\/14\/cpi-rises-but-us-stocks-rally\/","url_meta":{"origin":16843,"position":3},"title":"CPI rises but US stocks rally","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 14, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"June consumer price index (CPI) jumped to 2.8% but forward estimates of inflation, represented by the 5-Year breakeven rate (5-year Treasury yield minus TIPS) remain subdued at 2.06%. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) is at 2.2% while average hourly earnings (total private: production and non-supervisory employees) annual growth, representing\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":63878,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/03\/15\/we-expect-a-recession-in-2026\/","url_meta":{"origin":16843,"position":4},"title":"We Expect a Recession in 2026","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 15, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Real GDP growth slowed to an annualized rate of less than 0.7%. Growth in the Philadelphia Fed Coincident Economic Activity Index slowed to just 1.84% in December. Real GDP growth slowed to just 0.16% in the fourth quarter of 2025, an annualized rate of less than 0.7%, according\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;GDP and Activity&quot;","block_context":{"text":"GDP and Activity","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/gdp-and-activity\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Real GDP, Quarterly","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-13-realgdp2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-13-realgdp2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-13-realgdp2.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":6036,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/11\/06\/is-the-fed-finally-listening-to-scott-sumner\/","url_meta":{"origin":16843,"position":5},"title":"Is the Fed finally listening to Scott Sumner?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 6, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Brendan Greely writes of Scott Sumner. Sumner who holds a Ph.D. from the University of Chicago, made a suggestion in the late 1980s to the New York Federal Reserve. He proposed that the Fed set a target for nominal GDP\u2014real growth in GDP plus the rate of inflation. He felt\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16843","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16843"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16843\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16848,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16843\/revisions\/16848"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16843"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16843"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16843"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}