{"id":16843,"date":"2018-08-18T01:47:44","date_gmt":"2018-08-18T01:47:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=16843"},"modified":"2018-08-18T08:46:46","modified_gmt":"2018-08-18T08:46:46","slug":"sp-500-volatility-falls","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/08\/18\/sp-500-volatility-falls\/","title":{"rendered":"S&#038;P 500 volatility falls"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.philadelphiafed.org\/research-and-data\/regional-economy\/indexes\/leading\">Philadelphia Fed Leading Index<\/a> at 1.42 for June 2018 maintains a healthy margin above the 1% level that would warn of a potential slow-down.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-08-17-leading.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Philadelphia Fed Leading Index\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The picture reinforces a steeply-climbing Freight Transportation Index, indicating strong economic activity.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-08-17-freight.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Freight Transportation Index\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Concerns that the economy may over-heat, spiking inflation, are not reflected in strong growth in average hourly earnings. The Fed has done a good job of containing money supply growth, with growth in the broad money supply (MZM plus time deposits) closely tracking nominal GDP.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-08-17-gdp-money.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Nominal GDP and Money Supply Growth\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Credit and money supply expansion at faster rates than nominal GDP have in the past flagged an overheating economy and higher inflation, leading to a recession when the Fed attempts to curb inflation.<\/p>\n<p>We are in stage 3 of a bull market but there are few signs that the economy will slow or earnings will fall.<\/p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 respected its new support level at 2800, confirming an advance to 3000. Declining Twiggs Volatility (21-day) signals that market risk is low and we can expect business as usual.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-08-17-spx-vty.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The NASDAQ 100 continues to warn of a correction, with bearish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow. This is secondary in nature, because of the indicator&#8217;s position relative to the zero line, but could test support at 7000.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-08-17-ndx.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Nasdaq 100\" \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Philadelphia Fed Leading Index at 1.42 for June 2018 maintains a healthy margin above the 1% level that would warn of a potential slow-down. The picture reinforces a steeply-climbing Freight Transportation Index, indicating strong economic activity. Concerns that the economy may over-heat, spiking inflation, are not reflected in strong growth in average hourly earnings. &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/08\/18\/sp-500-volatility-falls\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;S&#038;P 500 volatility falls&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,13,57,34],"tags":[3836,3877,2401,2485,2658,3010],"class_list":["post-16843","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-inflation-economy","category-stock-markets","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-broad-money-supply","tag-freight-transportation-index","tag-nasdaq-100","tag-nominal-gdp","tag-philadelphia-fed-leading-index","tag-sp-500"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>S&amp;P 500 volatility falls - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"S&amp;P 500 volatility falls - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Philadelphia Fed Leading Index at 1.42 for June 2018 maintains a healthy margin above the 1% level that would warn of a potential slow-down. The picture reinforces a steeply-climbing Freight Transportation Index, indicating strong economic activity. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\\\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-4nF","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":16007,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/10\/09\/how-long-will-the-bull-market-last\/","url_meta":{"origin":16843,"position":0},"title":"How long will the bull market last?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 9, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"US markets are clearly in a bull phase, with the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq making strong gains. A rising Freight Transport Index highlights the broad up-turn in economic activity. Low corporate bond spreads -- lowest investment grade (Baa) minus 10-year Treasury yield -- and VIX below 15 both reflect\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":18091,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/04\/05\/sp-500-expect-slower-earnings-growth-but-no-sign-of-recession\/","url_meta":{"origin":16843,"position":1},"title":"S&#038;P 500: Expect slower earnings growth but no sign of recession","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 5, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Credit growth in the US above 5% shows no signs of tighter credit conditions from an inverted yield curve. Growth in the broad money supply (MZM plus time deposits) has also not slowed, remaining close to 5%. Growth in hours worked has slowed to 1.71%, suggesting that real GDP growth\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":16662,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/07\/14\/cpi-rises-but-us-stocks-rally\/","url_meta":{"origin":16843,"position":2},"title":"CPI rises but US stocks rally","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 14, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"June consumer price index (CPI) jumped to 2.8% but forward estimates of inflation, represented by the 5-Year breakeven rate (5-year Treasury yield minus TIPS) remain subdued at 2.06%. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) is at 2.2% while average hourly earnings (total private: production and non-supervisory employees) annual growth, representing\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":16373,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/06\/27\/australias-debt-bomb\/","url_meta":{"origin":16843,"position":3},"title":"Australia&#8217;s Debt Bomb","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 27, 2018","format":"video","excerpt":"Martin North interviews economist John Adams about structural imbalances in the Australian (and global) economy. \"I do think they will try to print their way out of this problem.\" https:\/\/youtu.be\/5hJpC3bmzZU Hat tip to Macrobusiness. Comment: I do take issue with the comparison of CPI to Broad Money growth. Broad money\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/img.youtube.com\/vi\/5hJpC3bmzZU\/0.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":63878,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/03\/15\/we-expect-a-recession-in-2026\/","url_meta":{"origin":16843,"position":4},"title":"We Expect a Recession in 2026","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 15, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Real GDP growth slowed to an annualized rate of less than 0.7%. Growth in the Philadelphia Fed Coincident Economic Activity Index slowed to just 1.84% in December. Real GDP growth slowed to just 0.16% in the fourth quarter of 2025, an annualized rate of less than 0.7%, according\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;GDP and Activity&quot;","block_context":{"text":"GDP and Activity","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/gdp-and-activity\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Real GDP, Quarterly","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-13-realgdp2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-13-realgdp2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-13-realgdp2.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":6036,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/11\/06\/is-the-fed-finally-listening-to-scott-sumner\/","url_meta":{"origin":16843,"position":5},"title":"Is the Fed finally listening to Scott Sumner?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 6, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Brendan Greely writes of Scott Sumner. Sumner who holds a Ph.D. from the University of Chicago, made a suggestion in the late 1980s to the New York Federal Reserve. He proposed that the Fed set a target for nominal GDP\u2014real growth in GDP plus the rate of inflation. He felt\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16843","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16843"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16843\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16848,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16843\/revisions\/16848"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16843"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16843"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16843"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}