{"id":16826,"date":"2018-08-11T01:28:39","date_gmt":"2018-08-11T01:28:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=16826"},"modified":"2018-08-11T01:28:39","modified_gmt":"2018-08-11T01:28:39","slug":"sp-500-earnings-surge","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/08\/11\/sp-500-earnings-surge\/","title":{"rendered":"S&#038;P 500 earnings surge"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Of companies in the S&amp;P 500 index, 90.2% have reported their results for the quarter. According to <a href=\"https:\/\/au.spindices.com\/indices\/equity\/sp-500\">S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices<\/a>:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Sales growth at 11.0% year-on-year (Y\/Y) is close to a potential record.<\/li>\n<li>The earnings beat rate of 78% is also historically high, compared to an average of 67%.<\/li>\n<li>Operating margins are at a record 11.58%, compared to an average of 8.08% over the last 20 years.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Forward earnings estimates are climbing, driving the forward Price-Earnings ratio to a more comfortable 17.6 compared to its March 2015 high of 23.9.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-08-03-spx-forward.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 Forward Earnings Estimates\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Valuations based on historic earnings remain high, but P\/E multiples have fallen to 22.02 from 24.16 in the last quarter. The long-term chart below compares the index price to previous highest annual EPS, to eliminate distortions caused by sudden falls in earnings.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-08-03-spx-pemax.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 Price-earnings based on Maximum Previous Earnngs\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The current earnings multiple is still significantly higher than the 18.86 reached prior to the 1929 Wall Street crash and 18.69 in October 1987. But high valuations don&#8217;t cause market crashes. Sudden falls in earnings do. And there is little sign of that at present.<\/p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 is retracing for another test of its new support level at 2800. Respect would signal an advance to 3000. Declining Money Flow warns of selling pressure but this appears secondary in nature, with the indicator still well above the zero line.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-08-10-spx.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The Nasdaq 100 also warns of a correction, with bearish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow. Again this appears secondary in nature because of the indicator&#8217;s position relative to the zero line. Expect a test of support at 7000.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-08-10-ndx.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Nasdaq 100\" \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Of companies in the S&amp;P 500 index, 90.2% have reported their results for the quarter. According to S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices: Sales growth at 11.0% year-on-year (Y\/Y) is close to a potential record. The earnings beat rate of 78% is also historically high, compared to an average of 67%. Operating margins are at a record &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/08\/11\/sp-500-earnings-surge\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;S&#038;P 500 earnings surge&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[57,34],"tags":[1446,2401,3766,3868,3010],"class_list":["post-16826","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stock-markets","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-forward-guidance","tag-nasdaq-100","tag-pemax","tag-price-earnings","tag-sp-500"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>S&amp;P 500 earnings surge - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"S&amp;P 500 earnings surge - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Of companies in the S&amp;P 500 index, 90.2% have reported their results for the quarter. According to S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices: Sales growth at 11.0% year-on-year (Y\/Y) is close to a potential record. The earnings beat rate of 78% is also historically high, compared to an average of 67%. Operating margins are at a record &hellip; Continue reading &quot;S&#038;P 500 earnings surge&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/08\/11\/sp-500-earnings-surge\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2018-08-11T01:28:39+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/static.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-08-03-spx-forward.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/08\/11\/sp-500-earnings-surge\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/08\/11\/sp-500-earnings-surge\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"S&#038;P 500 earnings surge\",\"datePublished\":\"2018-08-11T01:28:39+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/08\/11\/sp-500-earnings-surge\/\"},\"wordCount\":249,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/08\/11\/sp-500-earnings-surge\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-08-03-spx-forward.png\",\"keywords\":[\"forward guidance\",\"NASDAQ 100\",\"PEMAX\",\"Price-Earnings\",\"S&amp;P 500\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Stock Markets\",\"US &amp; Canada\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/08\/11\/sp-500-earnings-surge\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/08\/11\/sp-500-earnings-surge\/\",\"name\":\"S&P 500 earnings surge - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/08\/11\/sp-500-earnings-surge\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/08\/11\/sp-500-earnings-surge\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-08-03-spx-forward.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2018-08-11T01:28:39+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/08\/11\/sp-500-earnings-surge\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/08\/11\/sp-500-earnings-surge\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/08\/11\/sp-500-earnings-surge\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-08-03-spx-forward.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-08-03-spx-forward.png\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/08\/11\/sp-500-earnings-surge\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"S&#038;P 500 earnings surge\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\",\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor\",\"https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs\"],\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"S&P 500 earnings surge - the patient investor","robots":{"index":"noindex","follow":"follow"},"og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"S&P 500 earnings surge - the patient investor","og_description":"Of companies in the S&amp;P 500 index, 90.2% have reported their results for the quarter. According to S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices: Sales growth at 11.0% year-on-year (Y\/Y) is close to a potential record. The earnings beat rate of 78% is also historically high, compared to an average of 67%. 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Record operating margins of 13.0% estimated for the first quarter (March '21) are unlikely to be repeated. The average\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;GDP and Activity&quot;","block_context":{"text":"GDP and Activity","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/gdp-and-activity\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":60580,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/01\/25\/weekly-market-snapshot-3\/","url_meta":{"origin":16826,"position":1},"title":"Weekly Market Snapshot","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 25, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The dial on the left indicates bull or bear market status, while the one on the right reflects stock market drawdown risk. Bull\/Bear Market The Bull\/Bear Market indicator held steady at 60%, with two of the five leading indicators signaling Risk-off: The Chicago Fed National index is at a low\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Active Investing&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Active Investing","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investing\/active-investing\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bull\/Bear Market Indicator","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-12-06-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-12-06-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-12-06-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":52881,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/05\/15\/sp-500-fundamentals-dont-stack-up\/","url_meta":{"origin":16826,"position":2},"title":"S&#038;P 500 fundamentals don&#8217;t stack up","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 15, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 threatens another advance, fueled by easy monetary conditions, but the fundamentals don't stack up. Sales and earnings multiples are stretched despite weak expected sales and earnings growth for the March quarter -- with 458 of 503 stocks in the index having reported. S&P 500 The index is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;GDP and Activity&quot;","block_context":{"text":"GDP and Activity","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/gdp-and-activity\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-05-14-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-05-14-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-05-14-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":47941,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/01\/31\/sp-500-losing-touch-with-reality\/","url_meta":{"origin":16826,"position":3},"title":"S&#038;P 500 losing touch with reality","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 31, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 climbed to a new high after breaking resistance at its January '22 high of 4800. Rising Trend Index troughs warn of strong buying pressure. Pricing seems to be losing touch with reality. The S&P 500 Price-Earnings ratio climbed to 24.2 on December 31st and is forecast to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;US &amp; Canada&quot;","block_context":{"text":"US &amp; Canada","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/us-canada-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-05-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-05-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-05-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":15282,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/05\/14\/sp-500-price-earnings-ratio-rises\/","url_meta":{"origin":16826,"position":4},"title":"S&#038;P 500 Price-Earnings Ratio rises","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"May 14, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"With 84.4% of S&P 500 index constituents having reported first-quarter earnings, 302 (73.84%) beat their earnings estimates while 77 (18.83%) missed. Forward estimates for 2017 contracted by an average of 4.6% over the last 12 months but not sufficient to raise the forward Price-Earnings Ratio above 20. That is the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Earnings &amp; Dividends&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Earnings &amp; Dividends","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investing\/earnings-dividends\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":14880,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/02\/27\/forward-pe-turns-back-up\/","url_meta":{"origin":16826,"position":5},"title":"Forward P\/E turns back up","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"February 27, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Dow Jones Industrials Dow Jones Industrial Average continues to climb, heading for a target of 21000. Rising troughs on Twiggs Money Flow signal strong buying pressure. The S&P 500 follows a similar path. With the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) close to historic lows around 10 percent. However, at least one\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Earnings &amp; Dividends&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Earnings &amp; Dividends","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investing\/earnings-dividends\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16826","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16826"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16826\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16827,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16826\/revisions\/16827"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16826"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16826"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16826"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}