{"id":16794,"date":"2018-08-04T01:54:54","date_gmt":"2018-08-04T01:54:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=16794"},"modified":"2018-08-04T01:54:54","modified_gmt":"2018-08-04T01:54:54","slug":"yields-rise-but-will-stocks-fall","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/08\/04\/yields-rise-but-will-stocks-fall\/","title":{"rendered":"Yields rise but will stocks fall?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Yields on 10-year US Treasuries are again testing resistance at 3.0 percent. Breakout seems inevitable.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-08-03-tnx.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"10-Year Treasury Yield\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The long-term chart shows how breakout would complete a double bottom reversal, after a 3-decade-long secular bull market in bonds\/down-trend in yields.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-08-03-tnx-qq.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"10-Year Treasury Yield - Quarterly\" \/><\/p>\n<p>While most major stock market down-turns are caused by falling earnings expectations rather than revised earnings multiples, I do agree with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.afr.com\/markets\/magellans-hamish-douglass-lifts-cash-weighting-as-uncertainty-mounts-20180724-h132p9\">Hamish Douglass<\/a> that rising yields are likely to soften stock valuations.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Yields on 10-year US Treasuries are again testing resistance at 3.0 percent. Breakout seems inevitable. The long-term chart shows how breakout would complete a double bottom reversal, after a 3-decade-long secular bull market in bonds\/down-trend in yields. While most major stock market down-turns are caused by falling earnings expectations rather than revised earnings multiples, I &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/08\/04\/yields-rise-but-will-stocks-fall\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Yields rise but will stocks fall?&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[48,6,34],"tags":[70,3859,3860,3861],"class_list":["post-16794","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-earnings-dividends","category-fixed-income","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-10-year-treasury-yields","tag-bond-bull-market","tag-double-bottom-reversal","tag-secular-trend"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Yields rise but will stocks fall? - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Yields rise but will stocks fall? - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Yields on 10-year US Treasuries are again testing resistance at 3.0 percent. Breakout seems inevitable. The long-term chart shows how breakout would complete a double bottom reversal, after a 3-decade-long secular bull market in bonds\/down-trend in yields. While most major stock market down-turns are caused by falling earnings expectations rather than revised earnings multiples, I &hellip; Continue reading &quot;Yields rise but will stocks fall?&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/08\/04\/yields-rise-but-will-stocks-fall\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2018-08-04T01:54:54+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/static.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-08-03-tnx.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/08\/04\/yields-rise-but-will-stocks-fall\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/08\/04\/yields-rise-but-will-stocks-fall\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"Yields rise but will stocks fall?\",\"datePublished\":\"2018-08-04T01:54:54+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/08\/04\/yields-rise-but-will-stocks-fall\/\"},\"wordCount\":75,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/08\/04\/yields-rise-but-will-stocks-fall\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-08-03-tnx.png\",\"keywords\":[\"10-Year Treasury Yields\",\"bond bull market\",\"double-bottom reversal\",\"secular trend\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Earnings &amp; Dividends\",\"Fixed Income\",\"US &amp; Canada\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/08\/04\/yields-rise-but-will-stocks-fall\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/08\/04\/yields-rise-but-will-stocks-fall\/\",\"name\":\"Yields rise but will stocks fall? - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/08\/04\/yields-rise-but-will-stocks-fall\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/08\/04\/yields-rise-but-will-stocks-fall\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-08-03-tnx.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2018-08-04T01:54:54+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/08\/04\/yields-rise-but-will-stocks-fall\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/08\/04\/yields-rise-but-will-stocks-fall\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/08\/04\/yields-rise-but-will-stocks-fall\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-08-03-tnx.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-08-03-tnx.png\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/08\/04\/yields-rise-but-will-stocks-fall\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Yields rise but will stocks fall?\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\",\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor\",\"https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs\"],\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Yields rise but will stocks fall? - the patient investor","robots":{"index":"noindex","follow":"follow"},"og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Yields rise but will stocks fall? - the patient investor","og_description":"Yields on 10-year US Treasuries are again testing resistance at 3.0 percent. Breakout seems inevitable. The long-term chart shows how breakout would complete a double bottom reversal, after a 3-decade-long secular bull market in bonds\/down-trend in yields. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-4mS","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":17120,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/10\/04\/treasury-yields-confirm-bond-bear-market\/","url_meta":{"origin":16794,"position":0},"title":"Treasury yields confirm bond bear market","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 4, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"10-Year Treasury yields respected their new support level at 3.00%, confirming a primary advance. Breakout above 3.00% also completes a double-bottom reversal, signaling the end of a three-decade-long secular bull market in bonds. The yield differential between 10-year and 3-month Treasuries is declining but a flat yield curve does not\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":16317,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/05\/26\/falling-bond-yields-fail-to-tame-gold-bears\/","url_meta":{"origin":16794,"position":1},"title":"Falling bond yields fail to tame Gold bears","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 26, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"10-Year Treasury yields retreated below 3.0 percent after threatening a bond bear market for the past week. Breakout above 3.0 percent would complete a large double bottom reversal in the secular down-trend. Rising bond yields would be expected to weaken demand for gold as the opportunity cost of holding precious\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Aussie dollar&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Aussie dollar","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/forex\/aussie-dollar\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":11795,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/05\/12\/gold-inflation-and-the-dollar\/","url_meta":{"origin":16794,"position":2},"title":"Gold, inflation and the Dollar","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"May 12, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"The (5-year) inflation breakeven (Treasury yield - TIPS) recovered from the oil price fall to post 1.66% on May 8. Growth in average hourly earnings (manufacturing - production and non-supervisory employees) also recovered to 1.49% at the end of April. The stronger inflation outlook lifted the yield on 10-year Treasury\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Gold &amp; Precious Metals&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Gold &amp; Precious Metals","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/gold-precious-metals\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"5-Year Inflation Breakeven","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-05-12-inflation.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-05-12-inflation.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-05-12-inflation.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":17081,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/09\/22\/how-will-a-bond-bear-market-affect-stocks\/","url_meta":{"origin":16794,"position":3},"title":"How will a bond bear market affect stocks?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 22, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"10-Year Treasury yields broke out of their triangular consolidation at 3.00%, while the Trend Index recovered above zero signaling a fresh advance. Importance of resistance at 3.00% is best illustrated on a long-term monthly chart. Yields declined for more than three decades (since 1981) in a bond bull market but\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":16081,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/01\/25\/how-qe-reversal-will-impact-on-financial-markets\/","url_meta":{"origin":16794,"position":4},"title":"How QE reversal will impact on financial markets","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 25, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"The Federal Reserve last year announced plans to shrink its balance sheet which had grown to $4.5 trillion under the quantitative easing (QE) program. According to its June 2017 Normalization Plan, the Fed will scale back reinvestment at the rate of $10 billion per month and step this up every\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/2018-01-24-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/2018-01-24-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/2018-01-24-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":11568,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/02\/18\/gold-and-the-bull-trend-in-bonds\/","url_meta":{"origin":16794,"position":5},"title":"Gold and the bull-trend in bonds","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"February 18, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"10-Year Treasury Yields found support above the December low of 1.40%, recovering above medium-term resistance at 2.00%. The outlook is hardening around a Fed increase in short-term rates by mid-year. A higher trough would suggest that the long-term down-trend in yields, shown below on an annual chart, is coming to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Fixed Income&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Fixed Income","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/fixed-income\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yields","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-02-18-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-02-18-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-02-18-tnx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16794","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16794"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16794\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16795,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16794\/revisions\/16795"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16794"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16794"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16794"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}